{"version":1,"about":"What the site would have said in the four backtest windows (docs/PRD.md \"The backtest\"), replayed through the Phase 4 scenarios engine and status line with only the rows public at each time. Written by `pnpm backtest` (packages/backtest/scripts/run.mjs); a test fails when it is stale. Never edit it by hand.","engine_version":"replay-1+692c1e40db38971c","engine_files":["packages/core/src/scenarios.ts","packages/core/src/statusline.ts","packages/core/src/baseline.ts","packages/backtest/src/loaders.ts","packages/backtest/src/run.ts"],"generated_from":{"data/scenarios.json":"a26603fa8bc9f801d85857e579c5ac543dd262499010e97f09fed078ce67ecf7","data/backtest/windows.json":"8b74e21fc43bd4fec0c64216e6fe84f7240113b155b3d779138fe514d07afb15","data/backtest/inputs/gdelt-w1.json":"f50e5827ac19751aba36a2223affbb71a65a72dfbcf82cc97d99dc54fe33ddf3","data/backtest/inputs/gdelt-w2.json":"f1b15d39570e33df4f29ae27e69531df85adb18fd25cda0b11b07f99643374be","data/backtest/inputs/gdelt-w3.json":"2e6d9e235f7d16802f94c966e9f07d4beac7799361d7331bcb3ecbcb9f8579b7","data/backtest/inputs/gdelt-q.json":"2c686c74ce1a291fbf6798640e7bf069b200ed3ed64c9c90de6baea43f95b5e5","data/backtest/inputs/polymarket.json":"a4195d187addbd26a8a38ed498323e9d45224c00db05bcad9622809e16029d3d","data/backtest/inputs/fred.json":"09f278b92f232333ed31c61549999a79382d58d5ad52dc1e78e73e3e42a964e2","data/backtest/inputs/cisa_kev.json":"2c8734b714f27583f96994abfc30a46ff1008997ccdff7d3edc14dd00568211c","data/backtest/inputs/ioda.json":"f72564821aaf1f26d3b618d70fa8bd214cad601c50fe89a9d3da8cbc5c2ca736"},"method":["Only rows public at each evaluation time count: a row whose fetched_at is after it is left out.","Baselines are the ones the nightly run would have written: as of the latest 07:00 UTC at or before the evaluation time, from rows public by then, one point per half hour, with the live math and seriesConfig. GDELT series use UTC half-hour slots; KEV adds and the VIX use one baseline over all days.","A baseline under 40 points cannot score, as live: its sign reads NOT EVALUATED, and the note says how many points the history gave. The backtest keeps 8 weeks of GDELT history and 27 weeks of daily history, where the live site keeps 52 weeks.","The scenarios engine and the status line run unchanged, with the thresholds in data/scenarios.json. No editor marks, no status holds and no alert rows are replayed, so editor signs, alert signs and convergence read NOT EVALUATED or play no part.","A computed row (a scenario, a status line) has this file as its receipt: source_url data/backtest/results.json, raw_key results.json, and fetched_at the newest fetched_at among its inputs. Every input carries its own upstream receipt; these raws are not in R2, so raw_key is the upstream file name."],"windows":[{"id":"W1","name":"Midnight Hammer","event":"US strikes on Iran (Operation Midnight Hammer), announced about 8 pm Eastern on June 21, 2025. The window is three hours before.","zone":"America/New_York","scenario_of_interest":"us-strike-abroad","expect":"raised","provisional":false,"chosen_by":null,"label":null,"gaps":[{"sources":["gdelt"],"signs":["target_tone_drop","us_protest_over_baseline"],"from":"2025-06-14T18:00:00.000Z","to":"2025-07-02T02:00:00.000Z","reason":"GDELT published no files from the afternoon of June 14 to July 2, 2025, an outage on GDELT's side. Every GDELT sign is NOT EVALUATED in this window."},{"sources":["polymarket"],"signs":[],"from":null,"to":null,"reason":"Only 1 of the 7 signs of US military strike abroad can be evaluated in this window: the strike market jump. It takes 4 lit to reach ELEVATED, so this window cannot show ELEVATED, whatever the data say."}],"evaluations":[{"evaluate_at":"2025-06-21T21:00:00.000Z","local_time":"2025-06-21T17:00","zone":"America/New_York","baseline_as_of":"2025-06-21T07:00:00.000Z","status_line":{"evaluated_at":"2025-06-21T21:00:00.000Z","status":"NORMAL","rule_status":"NORMAL","held":false,"sentence":"No scenario has enough signs lit.","rule":"none","produced_by":{"alerts":[],"scenarios":[]},"version":"replay-1+692c1e40db38971c","source_url":"data/backtest/results.json","fetched_at":"2025-06-21T20:48:00.000Z","raw_key":"results.json"},"scenarios":[{"scenario_id":"us-strike-abroad","name":"US military strike abroad","lit":0,"not_lit":1,"not_evaluated":6,"total":7,"modules_lit":[],"counted":false,"reaches":"NORMAL","contribution":"NORMAL","elevated_at":4,"mayday_at":6,"weight_lit":0,"weight_total":7,"why":"0 of 7 signs lit. 6 not evaluated.","gaps":["Classified movements and orders.","Aircraft that fly without ADS-B or with blocked positions.","Encrypted communications.","Anything that is not on a public feed.","Food places near the Pentagon are at MAYDAY: not enough data in the last hour.","Food places near the White House are at MAYDAY: not enough data in the last hour.","Far more tanker planes than normal over one region: no readings yet.","An airborne command post flying at an unusual hour: no readings yet.","News about the target country turns far darker than normal: no readings yet.","A new security flight restriction over Washington, or executive jets flying far more than normal: security flight restriction over Washington: the FAA flight restrictions feed has not run yet. Executive jets: no readings yet."],"signs":[{"sign_id":"pentagon_ring","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"white_house_ring","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"tanker_surge","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"command_aircraft_offhours","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"strike_market_jump","state":"NOT LIT","weight":1},{"sign_id":"target_tone_drop","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"dc_tfr_or_exec_aircraft","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1}],"source_url":"data/backtest/results.json","fetched_at":"2025-06-21T20:00:08.000Z","raw_key":"results.json"},{"scenario_id":"great-power-escalation","name":"Great-power escalation","lit":0,"not_lit":1,"not_evaluated":6,"total":7,"modules_lit":[],"counted":false,"reaches":"NORMAL","contribution":"NORMAL","elevated_at":3,"mayday_at":5,"weight_lit":0,"weight_total":7,"why":"0 of 7 signs lit. 6 not evaluated.","gaps":["Submarine positions.","Nuclear alert levels.","Diplomatic channels.","UKMTO warnings, Joint War Committee lists and UN Security Council sessions until an editor marks them.","Two credible outlets report nuclear bombers moved to other bases, or more submarines at sea: needs an editor. No mark yet.","An airborne command post flying at an unusual hour: no readings yet.","The State Department orders staff out of a country, or tells Americans not to travel to a G20 country: the State Department travel advisories feed has not run yet.","A warning to ships in a major strait: nGA navigational warning: the NGA navigational warnings feed has not run yet. UKMTO warning, marked by an editor: needs an editor. No mark yet.","Marine insurers add a sea area to their war risk list: needs an editor. No mark yet.","The UN Security Council holds an emergency session: needs an editor. No mark yet."],"signs":[{"sign_id":"bomber_sub_reports","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"command_aircraft_offhours","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"state_departure_or_level4","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"strait_warning","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"jwc_listed_area","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"oil_jump","state":"NOT LIT","weight":1},{"sign_id":"unsc_emergency","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1}],"source_url":"data/backtest/results.json","fetched_at":"2025-06-21T04:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"results.json"},{"scenario_id":"cyber-us-infrastructure","name":"Major cyber event on US infrastructure","lit":1,"not_lit":1,"not_evaluated":4,"total":6,"modules_lit":["pulse"],"counted":false,"reaches":"NORMAL","contribution":"NORMAL","elevated_at":3,"mayday_at":5,"weight_lit":1,"weight_total":6,"why":"1 of 6 signs lit, from 1 module. 4 not evaluated.","gaps":["Incidents not yet disclosed.","Classified attribution.","Private network telemetry.","Cloudflare Radar data until an editor marks it.","CISA gives federal agencies an emergency order about a threat: the CISA advisories feed has not run yet.","Far more US ransomware victims posted than normal: no readings yet.","Cloudflare reports an outage or an attack spike in a US region: needs an editor. No mark yet.","Food places near Fort Meade are at MAYDAY: not enough data in the last hour."],"signs":[{"sign_id":"cisa_emergency_directive","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"kev_over_baseline","state":"NOT LIT","weight":1},{"sign_id":"ransomware_us_over_baseline","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"radar_us_anomaly","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"ioda_us_state_outage","state":"LIT","weight":1},{"sign_id":"fort_meade_ring","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1}],"source_url":"data/backtest/results.json","fetched_at":"2025-06-21T20:48:00.000Z","raw_key":"results.json"},{"scenario_id":"domestic-instability","name":"Domestic instability","lit":0,"not_lit":0,"not_evaluated":6,"total":6,"modules_lit":[],"counted":false,"reaches":"NORMAL","contribution":"NORMAL","elevated_at":3,"mayday_at":5,"weight_lit":0,"weight_total":6,"why":"0 of 6 signs lit. 6 not evaluated.","gaps":["ACLED data until its keys exist.","Threats that never become a public charge.","Private talks between officials.","More threats or attacks on officials and judges than normal: needs an editor. No mark yet.","More armed demonstrations than normal: needs an editor. No mark yet.","A state or an official refuses to certify a result or obey a court order: needs an editor. No mark yet.","A governor, a general or a top police leader breaks with the federal government in public: needs an editor. No mark yet.","The National Guard deploys in a state over its governor's objection: needs an editor. No mark yet.","A new security flight restriction over a state capital: the FAA flight restrictions feed has not run yet."],"signs":[{"sign_id":"threats_on_officials","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"armed_demonstrations","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"refusal_to_certify","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"public_break","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"guard_over_objection","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"tfr_state_capital","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1}],"source_url":"data/backtest/results.json","fetched_at":"2025-06-21T21:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"results.json"},{"scenario_id":"election-disruption","name":"Election disruption","lit":0,"not_lit":0,"not_evaluated":5,"total":5,"modules_lit":[],"counted":false,"reaches":"NORMAL","contribution":"NORMAL","elevated_at":3,"mayday_at":4,"weight_lit":0,"weight_total":5,"why":"0 of 5 signs lit. 5 not evaluated.","gaps":["State election office notices until an editor marks them.","FBI announcements until an editor marks them.","Private threats to election workers.","CISA or the FBI warns the public about a threat to an election: cISA election advisory: the CISA advisories feed has not run yet. FBI warning, marked by an editor: needs an editor. No mark yet.","Election offices in 3 or more states post warnings: needs an editor. No mark yet.","Betting odds on a certified election result swing 15 points or more in a day: no readings yet.","Far more protest news in the US than normal: no readings yet.","A new security flight restriction over a state capital: the FAA flight restrictions feed has not run yet."],"signs":[{"sign_id":"election_psa","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"election_office_advisories","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"certified_market_swing","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"us_protest_over_baseline","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"tfr_state_capital","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1}],"source_url":"data/backtest/results.json","fetched_at":"2025-06-21T21:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"results.json"},{"scenario_id":"war-market-shock","name":"War-driven market shock","lit":0,"not_lit":1,"not_evaluated":4,"total":5,"modules_lit":[],"counted":false,"reaches":"NORMAL","contribution":"NORMAL","elevated_at":3,"mayday_at":4,"weight_lit":0,"weight_total":5,"why":"0 of 5 signs lit. 4 not evaluated.","gaps":["Trades not filed yet: members of Congress report up to 45 days late.","Private and off-exchange trading.","Joint War Committee lists until an editor marks them.","Defense or energy funds move far more than normal in a day: no readings yet.","Three or more public filers report buying or selling the same watched stock in the same week: the House disclosure feed or the SEC Form 4 feed has not run yet.","Marine insurers add a sea area to their war risk list: needs an editor. No mark yet.","Far more sanctions added than normal: no readings yet."],"signs":[{"sign_id":"etf_shock","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"money_cluster","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"vix_over_baseline","state":"NOT LIT","weight":1},{"sign_id":"jwc_listed_area","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"sanctions_over_baseline","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1}],"source_url":"data/backtest/results.json","fetched_at":"2025-06-21T04:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"results.json"}],"signs":[{"sign_id":"pentagon_ring","words":"Pentagon ring MAYDAY","plain":"Food places near the Pentagon are at MAYDAY","module":"mayday","kind":"alert","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Not enough data in the last hour.","note":"The Mayday Index has no history before launch.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["us-strike-abroad"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"white_house_ring","words":"White House ring MAYDAY","plain":"Food places near the White House are at MAYDAY","module":"mayday","kind":"alert","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Not enough data in the last hour.","note":"The Mayday Index has no history before launch.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["us-strike-abroad"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"tanker_surge","words":"tanker surge over a region","plain":"Far more tanker planes than normal over one region","module":"sky","kind":"metric","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"No readings yet.","note":"ADS-B archives run to gigabytes a day, so no flight history was collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["us-strike-abroad"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"command_aircraft_offhours","words":"E-4B or E-6B airborne off-hours","plain":"An airborne command post flying at an unusual hour","module":"sky","kind":"metric","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"No readings yet.","note":"ADS-B archives run to gigabytes a day, so no flight history was collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["us-strike-abroad","great-power-escalation"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"strike_market_jump","words":"Kalshi or Polymarket strike market up 15 points in 24 h","plain":"Betting odds on a US strike up 15 points or more in a day","module":"pulse","kind":"metric","state":"NOT LIT","why":"Only 1 of the 2 needed is lit.","note":null,"confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"One source, graded C3.","fetched_at":"2025-06-21T20:00:08.000Z","scenarios":["us-strike-abroad"],"findings":[{"key":"polymarket:532741","label":"Odds of US military action against Iran before July 2025","measure":"change","value":16.8,"bar":15,"lit":true,"ts":"2025-06-21T20:00:08.000Z"},{"key":"polymarket:554010","label":"Odds of US military action against Iran by Saturday, June 21, 2025","measure":"change","value":-1.4,"bar":15,"lit":false,"ts":"2025-06-21T20:00:08.000Z"}],"inputs":[{"type":"reading","db":"pulse","metric":"odds","key":"polymarket:532741","ts":"2025-06-20T20:00:08.000Z","value":0.3895,"z":null,"baseline":null,"source":"polymarket","source_url":"https://clob.polymarket.com/prices-history?market=114122071509644379678018727908709560226618148003371446110114509806601493071694&interval=max&fidelity=60","fetched_at":"2025-06-20T20:00:08.000Z","raw_key":"hist-us-military-action-against-iran-before-july.json"},{"type":"reading","db":"pulse","metric":"odds","key":"polymarket:532741","ts":"2025-06-21T20:00:08.000Z","value":0.5575,"z":null,"baseline":null,"source":"polymarket","source_url":"https://clob.polymarket.com/prices-history?market=114122071509644379678018727908709560226618148003371446110114509806601493071694&interval=max&fidelity=60","fetched_at":"2025-06-21T20:00:08.000Z","raw_key":"hist-us-military-action-against-iran-before-july.json"},{"type":"reading","db":"pulse","metric":"odds","key":"polymarket:554010","ts":"2025-06-20T20:00:08.000Z","value":0.105,"z":null,"baseline":null,"source":"polymarket","source_url":"https://clob.polymarket.com/prices-history?market=45636732135062058190726723986694706512406030278586540336327984163916426345724&interval=max&fidelity=60","fetched_at":"2025-06-20T20:00:08.000Z","raw_key":"hist-us-military-action-against-iran-by-saturday.json"},{"type":"reading","db":"pulse","metric":"odds","key":"polymarket:554010","ts":"2025-06-21T20:00:08.000Z","value":0.091,"z":null,"baseline":null,"source":"polymarket","source_url":"https://clob.polymarket.com/prices-history?market=45636732135062058190726723986694706512406030278586540336327984163916426345724&interval=max&fidelity=60","fetched_at":"2025-06-21T20:00:08.000Z","raw_key":"hist-us-military-action-against-iran-by-saturday.json"}]},{"sign_id":"target_tone_drop","words":"GDELT tone drop for the target country","plain":"News about the target country turns far darker than normal","module":"pulse","kind":"metric","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"No readings yet.","note":"GDELT published no files from the afternoon of June 14 to July 2, 2025, an outage on GDELT's side. Every GDELT sign is NOT EVALUATED in this window.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["us-strike-abroad"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"dc_tfr_or_exec_aircraft","words":"DC TFR or executive aircraft moving","plain":"A new security flight restriction over Washington, or executive jets flying far more than normal","module":"sky","kind":"any","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Security flight restriction over Washington: the FAA flight restrictions feed has not run yet. Executive jets: no readings yet.","note":"No FAA flight restriction archive and no flight history were collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["us-strike-abroad"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"bomber_sub_reports","words":"Nuclear-capable bombers dispersed or a submarine surge, reported by two credible outlets","plain":"Two credible outlets report nuclear bombers moved to other bases, or more submarines at sea","module":"sky","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["great-power-escalation"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"state_departure_or_level4","words":"State Department ordered departure or Level 4 for a G20 country","plain":"The State Department orders staff out of a country, or tells Americans not to travel to a G20 country","module":"pulse","kind":"event","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"The State Department travel advisories feed has not run yet.","note":"No history of State Department travel advisories was collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["great-power-escalation"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"strait_warning","words":"NAVAREA or UKMTO warning in a major strait","plain":"A warning to ships in a major strait","module":"sky","kind":"any","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"NGA navigational warning: the NGA navigational warnings feed has not run yet. UKMTO warning, marked by an editor: needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"No history of NGA warnings to ships was collected, and the editor part needs an editor mark.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["great-power-escalation"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"jwc_listed_area","words":"Joint War Committee adds a listed area","plain":"Marine insurers add a sea area to their war risk list","module":"money","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"An editor sign, and no Joint War Committee lists were collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["great-power-escalation","war-market-shock"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"oil_jump","words":"oil up 8% or more in a day","plain":"Oil prices up 8% or more in a day","module":"money","kind":"metric","state":"NOT LIT","why":"No move of 8% or more from the day before.","note":null,"confidence":"MODERATE","confidence_reason":"One source graded B2 or better.","fetched_at":"2025-06-21T04:00:00.000Z","scenarios":["great-power-escalation"],"findings":[{"key":"DCOILWTICO","label":"Oil","measure":"change","value":-0.224008,"bar":8,"lit":false,"ts":"2025-06-20T00:00:00.000Z"}],"inputs":[{"type":"reading","db":"core","metric":"oil_wti","key":"DCOILWTICO","ts":"2025-06-18T00:00:00.000Z","value":75.89,"z":null,"baseline":null,"source":"fred","source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=DCOILWTICO","fetched_at":"2025-06-19T04:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"dcoilwtico.csv"},{"type":"reading","db":"core","metric":"oil_wti","key":"DCOILWTICO","ts":"2025-06-20T00:00:00.000Z","value":75.72,"z":null,"baseline":null,"source":"fred","source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=DCOILWTICO","fetched_at":"2025-06-21T04:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"dcoilwtico.csv"}]},{"sign_id":"unsc_emergency","words":"emergency UN Security Council session","plain":"The UN Security Council holds an emergency session","module":"pulse","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["great-power-escalation"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"cisa_emergency_directive","words":"New CISA emergency directive","plain":"CISA gives federal agencies an emergency order about a threat","module":"homeland","kind":"event","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"The CISA advisories feed has not run yet.","note":"No history of CISA advisories was collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["cyber-us-infrastructure"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"kev_over_baseline","words":"KEV adds over baseline","plain":"Far more actively exploited flaws than normal added to CISA's list","module":"homeland","kind":"metric","state":"NOT LIT","why":"Within the normal range for this time of week.","note":null,"confidence":"MODERATE","confidence_reason":"One source graded B2 or better.","fetched_at":"2025-06-21T04:00:00.000Z","scenarios":["cyber-us-infrastructure"],"findings":[{"key":"US","label":"Flaws added to CISA's list","measure":"z","value":-8,"bar":3,"lit":false,"ts":"2025-06-20T00:00:00.000Z"}],"inputs":[{"type":"reading","db":"core","metric":"kev_adds","key":"US","ts":"2025-06-20T00:00:00.000Z","value":0,"z":-8,"baseline":{"n":188,"mean":0.7253820860817858,"median":0,"mad":0,"method":"poisson_v1"},"source":"cisa_kev","source_url":"https://www.cisa.gov/sites/default/files/feeds/known_exploited_vulnerabilities.json","fetched_at":"2025-06-21T04:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"kev.json"}]},{"sign_id":"ransomware_us_over_baseline","words":"ransomware.live US victims over baseline","plain":"Far more US ransomware victims posted than normal","module":"homeland","kind":"metric","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"No readings yet.","note":"ransomware.live history now needs a paid key.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["cyber-us-infrastructure"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"radar_us_anomaly","words":"Cloudflare Radar outage or attack anomaly for a US region","plain":"Cloudflare reports an outage or an attack spike in a US region","module":"pulse","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["cyber-us-infrastructure"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"ioda_us_state_outage","words":"IODA internet outage in a US state","plain":"A large internet outage in a US state","module":"pulse","kind":"event","state":"LIT","why":"Seen 37 times in the last 24 hours.","note":null,"confidence":"MODERATE","confidence_reason":"One source graded B2 or better.","fetched_at":"2025-06-21T20:48:00.000Z","scenarios":["cyber-us-infrastructure"],"findings":[{"id":"01JYA0H5C026HACJKZZCGESBX1","label":null,"measure":"event","value":null,"bar":null,"lit":true,"ts":"2025-06-21T19:48:00.000Z"},{"id":"01JY9ZJ1904JJSCZ42CA69CVEG","label":null,"measure":"event","value":null,"bar":null,"lit":true,"ts":"2025-06-21T19:31:00.000Z"},{"id":"01JY9Y48E0JM21GKPMNK6JN05T","label":null,"measure":"event","value":null,"bar":null,"lit":true,"ts":"2025-06-21T19:06:00.000Z"},{"id":"01JY9RSZ70RWWK9B1D0VSQBPHA","label":null,"measure":"event","value":null,"bar":null,"lit":true,"ts":"2025-06-21T17:33:00.000Z"},{"id":"01JY9HN300EBPYCSHM6Q4QRD40","label":null,"measure":"event","value":null,"bar":null,"lit":true,"ts":"2025-06-21T15:28:00.000Z"},{"id":"01JY97RA90CHTRWEVVV8M24D06","label":null,"measure":"event","value":null,"bar":null,"lit":true,"ts":"2025-06-21T12:35:00.000Z"},{"id":"01JY9651N0652YVJMFA6341MHZ","label":null,"measure":"event","value":null,"bar":null,"lit":true,"ts":"2025-06-21T12:07:00.000Z"},{"id":"01JY957R50MV4ZR4KAXGA86ZSB","label":null,"measure":"event","value":null,"bar":null,"lit":true,"ts":"2025-06-21T11:51:00.000Z"},{"id":"01JY94KKM0JCGFBSBMX3FNE0NB","label":null,"measure":"event","value":null,"bar":null,"lit":true,"ts":"2025-06-21T11:40:00.000Z"},{"id":"01JY92YGD089XDQ41Y039YF1XK","label":null,"measure":"event","value":null,"bar":null,"lit":true,"ts":"2025-06-21T11:11:00.000Z"}],"inputs":[{"type":"event","id":"01JYA0H5C026HACJKZZCGESBX1","source":"ioda","ts":"2025-06-21T19:48:00.000Z","tags":["ioda:critical","ioda:us_state"],"url":"https://ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu/region/4415","source_url":"https://api.ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu/v2/outages/alerts?from=1750464000&until=1750636800&entityType=region&relatedTo=country%2FUS&limit=5000","fetched_at":"2025-06-21T20:48:00.000Z","raw_key":"ioda-us-regions-20250621.json"},{"type":"event","id":"01JY9ZJ1904JJSCZ42CA69CVEG","source":"ioda","ts":"2025-06-21T19:31:00.000Z","tags":["ioda:critical","ioda:us_state"],"url":"https://ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu/region/4415","source_url":"https://api.ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu/v2/outages/alerts?from=1750464000&until=1750636800&entityType=region&relatedTo=country%2FUS&limit=5000","fetched_at":"2025-06-21T20:31:00.000Z","raw_key":"ioda-us-regions-20250621.json"},{"type":"event","id":"01JY9Y48E0JM21GKPMNK6JN05T","source":"ioda","ts":"2025-06-21T19:06:00.000Z","tags":["ioda:critical","ioda:us_state"],"url":"https://ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu/region/4415","source_url":"https://api.ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu/v2/outages/alerts?from=1750464000&until=1750636800&entityType=region&relatedTo=country%2FUS&limit=5000","fetched_at":"2025-06-21T20:06:00.000Z","raw_key":"ioda-us-regions-20250621.json"},{"type":"event","id":"01JY9RSZ70RWWK9B1D0VSQBPHA","source":"ioda","ts":"2025-06-21T17:33:00.000Z","tags":["ioda:critical","ioda:us_state"],"url":"https://ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu/region/4415","source_url":"https://api.ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu/v2/outages/alerts?from=1750464000&until=1750636800&entityType=region&relatedTo=country%2FUS&limit=5000","fetched_at":"2025-06-21T18:33:00.000Z","raw_key":"ioda-us-regions-20250621.json"},{"type":"event","id":"01JY9HN300EBPYCSHM6Q4QRD40","source":"ioda","ts":"2025-06-21T15:28:00.000Z","tags":["ioda:critical","ioda:us_state"],"url":"https://ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu/region/4415","source_url":"https://api.ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu/v2/outages/alerts?from=1750464000&until=1750636800&entityType=region&relatedTo=country%2FUS&limit=5000","fetched_at":"2025-06-21T16:28:00.000Z","raw_key":"ioda-us-regions-20250621.json"},{"type":"event","id":"01JY97RA90CHTRWEVVV8M24D06","source":"ioda","ts":"2025-06-21T12:35:00.000Z","tags":["ioda:critical","ioda:us_state"],"url":"https://ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu/region/4415","source_url":"https://api.ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu/v2/outages/alerts?from=1750464000&until=1750636800&entityType=region&relatedTo=country%2FUS&limit=5000","fetched_at":"2025-06-21T13:35:00.000Z","raw_key":"ioda-us-regions-20250621.json"},{"type":"event","id":"01JY9651N0652YVJMFA6341MHZ","source":"ioda","ts":"2025-06-21T12:07:00.000Z","tags":["ioda:critical","ioda:us_state"],"url":"https://ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu/region/4415","source_url":"https://api.ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu/v2/outages/alerts?from=1750464000&until=1750636800&entityType=region&relatedTo=country%2FUS&limit=5000","fetched_at":"2025-06-21T13:07:00.000Z","raw_key":"ioda-us-regions-20250621.json"},{"type":"event","id":"01JY957R50MV4ZR4KAXGA86ZSB","source":"ioda","ts":"2025-06-21T11:51:00.000Z","tags":["ioda:critical","ioda:us_state"],"url":"https://ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu/region/4415","source_url":"https://api.ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu/v2/outages/alerts?from=1750464000&until=1750636800&entityType=region&relatedTo=country%2FUS&limit=5000","fetched_at":"2025-06-21T12:51:00.000Z","raw_key":"ioda-us-regions-20250621.json"},{"type":"event","id":"01JY94KKM0JCGFBSBMX3FNE0NB","source":"ioda","ts":"2025-06-21T11:40:00.000Z","tags":["ioda:critical","ioda:us_state"],"url":"https://ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu/region/4415","source_url":"https://api.ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu/v2/outages/alerts?from=1750464000&until=1750636800&entityType=region&relatedTo=country%2FUS&limit=5000","fetched_at":"2025-06-21T12:40:00.000Z","raw_key":"ioda-us-regions-20250621.json"},{"type":"event","id":"01JY92YGD089XDQ41Y039YF1XK","source":"ioda","ts":"2025-06-21T11:11:00.000Z","tags":["ioda:critical","ioda:us_state"],"url":"https://ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu/region/4415","source_url":"https://api.ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu/v2/outages/alerts?from=1750464000&until=1750636800&entityType=region&relatedTo=country%2FUS&limit=5000","fetched_at":"2025-06-21T12:11:00.000Z","raw_key":"ioda-us-regions-20250621.json"}]},{"sign_id":"fort_meade_ring","words":"Fort Meade ring MAYDAY","plain":"Food places near Fort Meade are at MAYDAY","module":"mayday","kind":"alert","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Not enough data in the last hour.","note":"The Mayday Index has no history before launch.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["cyber-us-infrastructure"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"threats_on_officials","words":"Threats or attacks on officials and judges over baseline (ACLED, DOJ charges)","plain":"More threats or attacks on officials and judges than normal","module":"homeland","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"An editor sign, and no ACLED history was collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["domestic-instability"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"armed_demonstrations","words":"armed demonstrations over baseline (ACLED)","plain":"More armed demonstrations than normal","module":"pulse","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"An editor sign, and no ACLED history was collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["domestic-instability"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"refusal_to_certify","words":"a state or official refusing to certify a result or obey a court order","plain":"A state or an official refuses to certify a result or obey a court order","module":"homeland","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["domestic-instability"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"public_break","words":"a public break with the federal government by a governor, general or senior law enforcement leader","plain":"A governor, a general or a top police leader breaks with the federal government in public","module":"homeland","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["domestic-instability"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"guard_over_objection","words":"National Guard deployed over a governor's objection","plain":"The National Guard deploys in a state over its governor's objection","module":"homeland","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["domestic-instability"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"tfr_state_capital","words":"TFR over a state capital","plain":"A new security flight restriction over a state capital","module":"sky","kind":"event","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"The FAA flight restrictions feed has not run yet.","note":"No FAA flight restriction archive was collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["domestic-instability","election-disruption"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"election_psa","words":"CISA or FBI election PSA","plain":"CISA or the FBI warns the public about a threat to an election","module":"homeland","kind":"any","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"CISA election advisory: the CISA advisories feed has not run yet. FBI warning, marked by an editor: needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"No history of CISA advisories was collected, and the editor part needs an editor mark.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["election-disruption"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"election_office_advisories","words":"election-office advisories in 3 or more states","plain":"Election offices in 3 or more states post warnings","module":"homeland","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"An editor sign, and no election-office advisories were collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["election-disruption"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"certified_market_swing","words":"Kalshi or Polymarket odds swing over 15 points on a certified-result market","plain":"Betting odds on a certified election result swing 15 points or more in a day","module":"pulse","kind":"metric","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"No readings yet.","note":"No market on a certified election result was collected for any window, and no Kalshi history.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["election-disruption"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"us_protest_over_baseline","words":"GDELT US protest events over baseline","plain":"Far more protest news in the US than normal","module":"pulse","kind":"metric","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"No readings yet.","note":"GDELT published no files from the afternoon of June 14 to July 2, 2025, an outage on GDELT's side. Every GDELT sign is NOT EVALUATED in this window.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["election-disruption"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"etf_shock","words":"Defense or energy ETF move over 2 robust-z in a day","plain":"Defense or energy funds move far more than normal in a day","module":"money","kind":"metric","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"No readings yet.","note":"Fund prices need the owner's price key. Running prepare again with it can fill this sign.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["war-market-shock"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"money_cluster","words":"Follow the Money cluster alert","plain":"Three or more public filers report buying or selling the same watched stock in the same week","module":"money","kind":"alert","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"The House disclosure feed or the SEC Form 4 feed has not run yet.","note":"Follow the Money timing flags are not replayed in the backtest.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["war-market-shock"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"vix_over_baseline","words":"VIX over baseline","plain":"Stock market fear far above normal","module":"money","kind":"metric","state":"NOT LIT","why":"Within the normal range for this time of week.","note":null,"confidence":"MODERATE","confidence_reason":"One source graded B2 or better.","fetched_at":"2025-06-21T04:00:00.000Z","scenarios":["war-market-shock"],"findings":[{"key":"VIXCLS","label":"Market fear (the VIX)","measure":"z","value":0.2333713080168776,"bar":3,"lit":false,"ts":"2025-06-20T00:00:00.000Z"}],"inputs":[{"type":"reading","db":"core","metric":"vix","key":"VIXCLS","ts":"2025-06-20T00:00:00.000Z","value":20.62,"z":0.2333713080168776,"baseline":{"n":132,"mean":21.58615449703116,"median":19.8,"mad":2.370000000000001,"method":"robust_z_v1"},"source":"fred","source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=VIXCLS","fetched_at":"2025-06-21T04:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"vixcls.csv"}]},{"sign_id":"sanctions_over_baseline","words":"sanctions adds over baseline","plain":"Far more sanctions added than normal","module":"pulse","kind":"metric","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"No readings yet.","note":"No history of the OFAC sanctions list was collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["war-market-shock"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]}],"series":[{"db":"pulse","metric":"gdelt_country_protest","key":"country:US","source":"gdelt","label":null,"tags":[],"readings_known":0,"first_ts":null,"latest":null,"baseline":{"as_of":"2025-06-21T07:00:00.000Z","pool":"slot","n":0,"warm":false}},{"db":"pulse","metric":"gdelt_country_tone","key":"country:IR","source":"gdelt","label":"News about Iran","tags":["strike_target"],"readings_known":0,"first_ts":null,"latest":null,"baseline":{"as_of":"2025-06-21T07:00:00.000Z","pool":"slot","n":0,"warm":false}},{"db":"pulse","metric":"odds","key":"polymarket:532741","source":"polymarket","label":"Odds of US military action against Iran before July 2025","tags":["strike"],"readings_known":96,"first_ts":"2025-06-17T21:00:08.000Z","latest":{"ts":"2025-06-21T20:00:08.000Z","value":0.5575,"source_url":"https://clob.polymarket.com/prices-history?market=114122071509644379678018727908709560226618148003371446110114509806601493071694&interval=max&fidelity=60","fetched_at":"2025-06-21T20:00:08.000Z","raw_key":"hist-us-military-action-against-iran-before-july.json"},"baseline":null},{"db":"pulse","metric":"odds","key":"polymarket:554010","source":"polymarket","label":"Odds of US military action against Iran by Saturday, June 21, 2025","tags":["strike"],"readings_known":46,"first_ts":"2025-06-19T23:00:07.000Z","latest":{"ts":"2025-06-21T20:00:08.000Z","value":0.091,"source_url":"https://clob.polymarket.com/prices-history?market=45636732135062058190726723986694706512406030278586540336327984163916426345724&interval=max&fidelity=60","fetched_at":"2025-06-21T20:00:08.000Z","raw_key":"hist-us-military-action-against-iran-by-saturday.json"},"baseline":null},{"db":"core","metric":"vix","key":"VIXCLS","source":"fred","label":null,"tags":[],"readings_known":132,"first_ts":"2024-12-16T00:00:00.000Z","latest":{"ts":"2025-06-20T00:00:00.000Z","value":20.62,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=VIXCLS","fetched_at":"2025-06-21T04:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"vixcls.csv"},"baseline":{"as_of":"2025-06-21T07:00:00.000Z","pool":"all_days","n":132,"warm":true}},{"db":"core","metric":"oil_wti","key":"DCOILWTICO","source":"fred","label":null,"tags":[],"readings_known":127,"first_ts":"2024-12-16T00:00:00.000Z","latest":{"ts":"2025-06-20T00:00:00.000Z","value":75.72,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=DCOILWTICO","fetched_at":"2025-06-21T04:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"dcoilwtico.csv"},"baseline":null},{"db":"core","metric":"kev_adds","key":"US","source":"cisa_kev","label":null,"tags":[],"readings_known":188,"first_ts":"2024-12-15T00:00:00.000Z","latest":{"ts":"2025-06-20T00:00:00.000Z","value":0,"source_url":"https://www.cisa.gov/sites/default/files/feeds/known_exploited_vulnerabilities.json","fetched_at":"2025-06-21T04:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"kev.json"},"baseline":{"as_of":"2025-06-21T07:00:00.000Z","pool":"all_days","n":188,"warm":true}}],"events":[{"source":"ioda","known":91}],"sources":[{"source":"ioda","last_ok_at":"2025-06-21T21:00:00.000Z","status":"ok","source_url":"https://api.ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu/v2/outages/alerts?from=1750464000&until=1750636800&entityType=region&relatedTo=country%2FUS&limit=5000","fetched_at":"2025-06-21T21:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"ioda-us-regions-20250621.json"}]}],"summary":{"outcome":"blind","highest_status":"NORMAL","scenario_reached":"NORMAL","evaluable_signs":1,"total_signs":7,"signs_needed":4,"lit":[{"sign_id":"ioda_us_state_outage","plain":"A large internet outage in a US state","scenarios":["cyber-us-infrastructure"],"at":["2025-06-21T21:00:00.000Z"]}],"words":["Midnight Hammer: the status line read NORMAL at June 21, 2025, 5 pm Eastern.","US military strike abroad reached NORMAL, with at most 0 of its 7 signs lit. 1 of them had data. ELEVATED takes 4 lit, from two modules.","The backtest could not have raised it: too few of its signs have free history.","Lit: a large internet outage in a US state."]}},{"id":"W2","name":"Epic Fury","event":"The US-Israeli strike campaign on Iran (Operation Epic Fury), launched at 1:15 am Eastern on February 28, 2026. The window is the evening before.","zone":"America/New_York","scenario_of_interest":"us-strike-abroad","expect":"raised","provisional":false,"chosen_by":null,"label":null,"gaps":[{"sources":["polymarket","gdelt"],"signs":[],"from":null,"to":null,"reason":"Only 2 of the 7 signs of US military strike abroad can be evaluated in this window: the strike market jump and the tone of news about Iran. Both are World Pulse signs. It takes 4 lit, from two modules, to reach ELEVATED, so this window cannot show ELEVATED, whatever the data say."}],"evaluations":[{"evaluate_at":"2026-02-28T03:00:00.000Z","local_time":"2026-02-27T22:00","zone":"America/New_York","baseline_as_of":"2026-02-27T07:00:00.000Z","status_line":{"evaluated_at":"2026-02-28T03:00:00.000Z","status":"NORMAL","rule_status":"NORMAL","held":false,"sentence":"No scenario has enough signs lit.","rule":"none","produced_by":{"alerts":[],"scenarios":[]},"version":"replay-1+692c1e40db38971c","source_url":"data/backtest/results.json","fetched_at":"2026-02-28T03:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"results.json"},"scenarios":[{"scenario_id":"us-strike-abroad","name":"US military strike abroad","lit":1,"not_lit":1,"not_evaluated":5,"total":7,"modules_lit":["pulse"],"counted":false,"reaches":"NORMAL","contribution":"NORMAL","elevated_at":4,"mayday_at":6,"weight_lit":1,"weight_total":7,"why":"1 of 7 signs lit, from 1 module. 5 not evaluated.","gaps":["Classified movements and orders.","Aircraft that fly without ADS-B or with blocked positions.","Encrypted communications.","Anything that is not on a public feed.","Food places near the Pentagon are at MAYDAY: not enough data in the last hour.","Food places near the White House are at MAYDAY: not enough data in the last hour.","Far more tanker planes than normal over one region: no readings yet.","An airborne command post flying at an unusual hour: no readings yet.","A new security flight restriction over Washington, or executive jets flying far more than normal: security flight restriction over Washington: the FAA flight restrictions feed has not run yet. Executive jets: no readings yet."],"signs":[{"sign_id":"pentagon_ring","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"white_house_ring","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"tanker_surge","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"command_aircraft_offhours","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"strike_market_jump","state":"LIT","weight":1},{"sign_id":"target_tone_drop","state":"NOT LIT","weight":1},{"sign_id":"dc_tfr_or_exec_aircraft","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1}],"source_url":"data/backtest/results.json","fetched_at":"2026-02-28T03:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"results.json"},{"scenario_id":"great-power-escalation","name":"Great-power escalation","lit":0,"not_lit":1,"not_evaluated":6,"total":7,"modules_lit":[],"counted":false,"reaches":"NORMAL","contribution":"NORMAL","elevated_at":3,"mayday_at":5,"weight_lit":0,"weight_total":7,"why":"0 of 7 signs lit. 6 not evaluated.","gaps":["Submarine positions.","Nuclear alert levels.","Diplomatic channels.","UKMTO warnings, Joint War Committee lists and UN Security Council sessions until an editor marks them.","Two credible outlets report nuclear bombers moved to other bases, or more submarines at sea: needs an editor. No mark yet.","An airborne command post flying at an unusual hour: no readings yet.","The State Department orders staff out of a country, or tells Americans not to travel to a G20 country: the State Department travel advisories feed has not run yet.","A warning to ships in a major strait: nGA navigational warning: the NGA navigational warnings feed has not run yet. UKMTO warning, marked by an editor: needs an editor. No mark yet.","Marine insurers add a sea area to their war risk list: needs an editor. No mark yet.","The UN Security Council holds an emergency session: needs an editor. No mark yet."],"signs":[{"sign_id":"bomber_sub_reports","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"command_aircraft_offhours","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"state_departure_or_level4","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"strait_warning","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"jwc_listed_area","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"oil_jump","state":"NOT LIT","weight":1},{"sign_id":"unsc_emergency","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1}],"source_url":"data/backtest/results.json","fetched_at":"2026-02-27T05:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"results.json"},{"scenario_id":"cyber-us-infrastructure","name":"Major cyber event on US infrastructure","lit":1,"not_lit":1,"not_evaluated":4,"total":6,"modules_lit":["pulse"],"counted":false,"reaches":"NORMAL","contribution":"NORMAL","elevated_at":3,"mayday_at":5,"weight_lit":1,"weight_total":6,"why":"1 of 6 signs lit, from 1 module. 4 not evaluated.","gaps":["Incidents not yet disclosed.","Classified attribution.","Private network telemetry.","Cloudflare Radar data until an editor marks it.","CISA gives federal agencies an emergency order about a threat: the CISA advisories feed has not run yet.","Far more US ransomware victims posted than normal: no readings yet.","Cloudflare reports an outage or an attack spike in a US region: needs an editor. No mark yet.","Food places near Fort Meade are at MAYDAY: not enough data in the last hour."],"signs":[{"sign_id":"cisa_emergency_directive","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"kev_over_baseline","state":"NOT LIT","weight":1},{"sign_id":"ransomware_us_over_baseline","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"radar_us_anomaly","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"ioda_us_state_outage","state":"LIT","weight":1},{"sign_id":"fort_meade_ring","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1}],"source_url":"data/backtest/results.json","fetched_at":"2026-02-27T08:15:00.000Z","raw_key":"results.json"},{"scenario_id":"domestic-instability","name":"Domestic instability","lit":0,"not_lit":0,"not_evaluated":6,"total":6,"modules_lit":[],"counted":false,"reaches":"NORMAL","contribution":"NORMAL","elevated_at":3,"mayday_at":5,"weight_lit":0,"weight_total":6,"why":"0 of 6 signs lit. 6 not evaluated.","gaps":["ACLED data until its keys exist.","Threats that never become a public charge.","Private talks between officials.","More threats or attacks on officials and judges than normal: needs an editor. No mark yet.","More armed demonstrations than normal: needs an editor. No mark yet.","A state or an official refuses to certify a result or obey a court order: needs an editor. No mark yet.","A governor, a general or a top police leader breaks with the federal government in public: needs an editor. No mark yet.","The National Guard deploys in a state over its governor's objection: needs an editor. No mark yet.","A new security flight restriction over a state capital: the FAA flight restrictions feed has not run yet."],"signs":[{"sign_id":"threats_on_officials","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"armed_demonstrations","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"refusal_to_certify","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"public_break","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"guard_over_objection","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"tfr_state_capital","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1}],"source_url":"data/backtest/results.json","fetched_at":"2026-02-28T03:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"results.json"},{"scenario_id":"election-disruption","name":"Election disruption","lit":0,"not_lit":1,"not_evaluated":4,"total":5,"modules_lit":[],"counted":false,"reaches":"NORMAL","contribution":"NORMAL","elevated_at":3,"mayday_at":4,"weight_lit":0,"weight_total":5,"why":"0 of 5 signs lit. 4 not evaluated.","gaps":["State election office notices until an editor marks them.","FBI announcements until an editor marks them.","Private threats to election workers.","CISA or the FBI warns the public about a threat to an election: cISA election advisory: the CISA advisories feed has not run yet. FBI warning, marked by an editor: needs an editor. No mark yet.","Election offices in 3 or more states post warnings: needs an editor. No mark yet.","Betting odds on a certified election result swing 15 points or more in a day: no readings yet.","A new security flight restriction over a state capital: the FAA flight restrictions feed has not run yet."],"signs":[{"sign_id":"election_psa","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"election_office_advisories","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"certified_market_swing","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"us_protest_over_baseline","state":"NOT LIT","weight":1},{"sign_id":"tfr_state_capital","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1}],"source_url":"data/backtest/results.json","fetched_at":"2026-02-28T03:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"results.json"},{"scenario_id":"war-market-shock","name":"War-driven market shock","lit":0,"not_lit":1,"not_evaluated":4,"total":5,"modules_lit":[],"counted":false,"reaches":"NORMAL","contribution":"NORMAL","elevated_at":3,"mayday_at":4,"weight_lit":0,"weight_total":5,"why":"0 of 5 signs lit. 4 not evaluated.","gaps":["Trades not filed yet: members of Congress report up to 45 days late.","Private and off-exchange trading.","Joint War Committee lists until an editor marks them.","Defense or energy funds move far more than normal in a day: no readings yet.","Three or more public filers report buying or selling the same watched stock in the same week: the House disclosure feed or the SEC Form 4 feed has not run yet.","Marine insurers add a sea area to their war risk list: needs an editor. No mark yet.","Far more sanctions added than normal: no readings yet."],"signs":[{"sign_id":"etf_shock","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"money_cluster","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"vix_over_baseline","state":"NOT LIT","weight":1},{"sign_id":"jwc_listed_area","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"sanctions_over_baseline","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1}],"source_url":"data/backtest/results.json","fetched_at":"2026-02-27T05:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"results.json"}],"signs":[{"sign_id":"pentagon_ring","words":"Pentagon ring MAYDAY","plain":"Food places near the Pentagon are at MAYDAY","module":"mayday","kind":"alert","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Not enough data in the last hour.","note":"The Mayday Index has no history before launch.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["us-strike-abroad"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"white_house_ring","words":"White House ring MAYDAY","plain":"Food places near the White House are at MAYDAY","module":"mayday","kind":"alert","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Not enough data in the last hour.","note":"The Mayday Index has no history before launch.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["us-strike-abroad"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"tanker_surge","words":"tanker surge over a region","plain":"Far more tanker planes than normal over one region","module":"sky","kind":"metric","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"No readings yet.","note":"ADS-B archives run to gigabytes a day, so no flight history was collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["us-strike-abroad"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"command_aircraft_offhours","words":"E-4B or E-6B airborne off-hours","plain":"An airborne command post flying at an unusual hour","module":"sky","kind":"metric","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"No readings yet.","note":"ADS-B archives run to gigabytes a day, so no flight history was collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["us-strike-abroad","great-power-escalation"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"strike_market_jump","words":"Kalshi or Polymarket strike market up 15 points in 24 h","plain":"Betting odds on a US strike up 15 points or more in a day","module":"pulse","kind":"metric","state":"LIT","why":"Odds of a US strike on Iran by February 28, 2026: up 15 points in 24 hours. 1 more is lit too.","note":null,"confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"One source, graded C3.","fetched_at":"2026-02-27T23:00:32.000Z","scenarios":["us-strike-abroad"],"findings":[{"key":"polymarket:1198423","label":"Odds of a US strike on Iran by February 28, 2026","measure":"change","value":15,"bar":15,"lit":true,"ts":"2026-02-27T15:00:21.000Z"},{"key":"polymarket:984441","label":"Odds of a US strike on Iran by March 31, 2026","measure":"change","value":15,"bar":15,"lit":true,"ts":"2026-02-27T23:00:32.000Z"}],"inputs":[{"type":"reading","db":"pulse","metric":"odds","key":"polymarket:1198423","ts":"2026-02-26T14:00:21.000Z","value":0.085,"z":null,"baseline":null,"source":"polymarket","source_url":"https://clob.polymarket.com/prices-history?market=110790003121442365126855864076707686014650523258783405996925622264696084778807&interval=max&fidelity=60","fetched_at":"2026-02-26T14:00:21.000Z","raw_key":"hist-us-strikes-iran-by-february-28-2026.json"},{"type":"reading","db":"pulse","metric":"odds","key":"polymarket:1198423","ts":"2026-02-27T15:00:21.000Z","value":0.235,"z":null,"baseline":null,"source":"polymarket","source_url":"https://clob.polymarket.com/prices-history?market=110790003121442365126855864076707686014650523258783405996925622264696084778807&interval=max&fidelity=60","fetched_at":"2026-02-27T15:00:21.000Z","raw_key":"hist-us-strikes-iran-by-february-28-2026.json"},{"type":"reading","db":"pulse","metric":"odds","key":"polymarket:984441","ts":"2026-02-26T23:00:26.000Z","value":0.535,"z":null,"baseline":null,"source":"polymarket","source_url":"https://clob.polymarket.com/prices-history?market=114073431155826730926052468626599502581519892859155799641358176120253844422606&interval=max&fidelity=60","fetched_at":"2026-02-26T23:00:26.000Z","raw_key":"hist-us-strikes-iran-by-march-31-2026-393-881-954.json"},{"type":"reading","db":"pulse","metric":"odds","key":"polymarket:984441","ts":"2026-02-27T23:00:32.000Z","value":0.685,"z":null,"baseline":null,"source":"polymarket","source_url":"https://clob.polymarket.com/prices-history?market=114073431155826730926052468626599502581519892859155799641358176120253844422606&interval=max&fidelity=60","fetched_at":"2026-02-27T23:00:32.000Z","raw_key":"hist-us-strikes-iran-by-march-31-2026-393-881-954.json"}]},{"sign_id":"target_tone_drop","words":"GDELT tone drop for the target country","plain":"News about the target country turns far darker than normal","module":"pulse","kind":"metric","state":"NOT LIT","why":"Within the normal range for this time of week.","note":null,"confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"One source, graded C3.","fetched_at":"2026-02-28T03:00:00.000Z","scenarios":["us-strike-abroad"],"findings":[{"key":"country:IR","label":"News about Iran","measure":"z","value":0.22625850182760404,"bar":-3,"lit":false,"ts":"2026-02-28T02:45:00.000Z"}],"inputs":[{"type":"reading","db":"pulse","metric":"gdelt_country_tone","key":"country:IR","ts":"2026-02-28T02:45:00.000Z","value":-4.1205,"z":0.22625850182760404,"baseline":{"n":40,"mean":-4.423577920219937,"median":-4.4830000000000005,"mad":1.0806500000000008,"method":"robust_z_v1"},"source":"gdelt","source_url":"https://data.gdeltproject.org/gdeltv2/20260228024500.export.CSV.zip","fetched_at":"2026-02-28T03:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"20260228024500.export.CSV.zip"}]},{"sign_id":"dc_tfr_or_exec_aircraft","words":"DC TFR or executive aircraft moving","plain":"A new security flight restriction over Washington, or executive jets flying far more than normal","module":"sky","kind":"any","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Security flight restriction over Washington: the FAA flight restrictions feed has not run yet. Executive jets: no readings yet.","note":"No FAA flight restriction archive and no flight history were collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["us-strike-abroad"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"bomber_sub_reports","words":"Nuclear-capable bombers dispersed or a submarine surge, reported by two credible outlets","plain":"Two credible outlets report nuclear bombers moved to other bases, or more submarines at sea","module":"sky","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["great-power-escalation"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"state_departure_or_level4","words":"State Department ordered departure or Level 4 for a G20 country","plain":"The State Department orders staff out of a country, or tells Americans not to travel to a G20 country","module":"pulse","kind":"event","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"The State Department travel advisories feed has not run yet.","note":"No history of State Department travel advisories was collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["great-power-escalation"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"strait_warning","words":"NAVAREA or UKMTO warning in a major strait","plain":"A warning to ships in a major strait","module":"sky","kind":"any","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"NGA navigational warning: the NGA navigational warnings feed has not run yet. UKMTO warning, marked by an editor: needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"No history of NGA warnings to ships was collected, and the editor part needs an editor mark.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["great-power-escalation"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"jwc_listed_area","words":"Joint War Committee adds a listed area","plain":"Marine insurers add a sea area to their war risk list","module":"money","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"An editor sign, and no Joint War Committee lists were collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["great-power-escalation","war-market-shock"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"oil_jump","words":"oil up 8% or more in a day","plain":"Oil prices up 8% or more in a day","module":"money","kind":"metric","state":"NOT LIT","why":"No move of 8% or more from the day before.","note":null,"confidence":"MODERATE","confidence_reason":"One source graded B2 or better.","fetched_at":"2026-02-27T05:00:00.000Z","scenarios":["great-power-escalation"],"findings":[{"key":"DCOILWTICO","label":"Oil","measure":"change","value":-0.306279,"bar":8,"lit":false,"ts":"2026-02-26T00:00:00.000Z"}],"inputs":[{"type":"reading","db":"core","metric":"oil_wti","key":"DCOILWTICO","ts":"2026-02-25T00:00:00.000Z","value":65.3,"z":null,"baseline":null,"source":"fred","source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=DCOILWTICO","fetched_at":"2026-02-26T05:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"dcoilwtico.csv"},{"type":"reading","db":"core","metric":"oil_wti","key":"DCOILWTICO","ts":"2026-02-26T00:00:00.000Z","value":65.1,"z":null,"baseline":null,"source":"fred","source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=DCOILWTICO","fetched_at":"2026-02-27T05:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"dcoilwtico.csv"}]},{"sign_id":"unsc_emergency","words":"emergency UN Security Council session","plain":"The UN Security Council holds an emergency session","module":"pulse","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["great-power-escalation"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"cisa_emergency_directive","words":"New CISA emergency directive","plain":"CISA gives federal agencies an emergency order about a threat","module":"homeland","kind":"event","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"The CISA advisories feed has not run yet.","note":"No history of CISA advisories was collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["cyber-us-infrastructure"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"kev_over_baseline","words":"KEV adds over baseline","plain":"Far more actively exploited flaws than normal added to CISA's list","module":"homeland","kind":"metric","state":"NOT LIT","why":"Within the normal range for this time of week.","note":null,"confidence":"MODERATE","confidence_reason":"One source graded B2 or better.","fetched_at":"2026-02-27T05:00:00.000Z","scenarios":["cyber-us-infrastructure"],"findings":[{"key":"US","label":"Flaws added to CISA's list","measure":"z","value":-8,"bar":3,"lit":false,"ts":"2026-02-26T00:00:00.000Z"}],"inputs":[{"type":"reading","db":"core","metric":"kev_adds","key":"US","ts":"2026-02-26T00:00:00.000Z","value":0,"z":-8,"baseline":{"n":187,"mean":0.7402809525896029,"median":0,"mad":0,"method":"poisson_v1"},"source":"cisa_kev","source_url":"https://www.cisa.gov/sites/default/files/feeds/known_exploited_vulnerabilities.json","fetched_at":"2026-02-27T05:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"kev.json"}]},{"sign_id":"ransomware_us_over_baseline","words":"ransomware.live US victims over baseline","plain":"Far more US ransomware victims posted than normal","module":"homeland","kind":"metric","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"No readings yet.","note":"ransomware.live history now needs a paid key.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["cyber-us-infrastructure"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"radar_us_anomaly","words":"Cloudflare Radar outage or attack anomaly for a US region","plain":"Cloudflare reports an outage or an attack spike in a US region","module":"pulse","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["cyber-us-infrastructure"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"ioda_us_state_outage","words":"IODA internet outage in a US state","plain":"A large internet outage in a US state","module":"pulse","kind":"event","state":"LIT","why":"Seen once in the last 24 hours.","note":null,"confidence":"MODERATE","confidence_reason":"One source graded B2 or better.","fetched_at":"2026-02-27T08:15:00.000Z","scenarios":["cyber-us-infrastructure"],"findings":[{"id":"01KJEZ6S90TBTJVQJAJKY2BJ0R","label":null,"measure":"event","value":null,"bar":null,"lit":true,"ts":"2026-02-27T07:15:00.000Z"}],"inputs":[{"type":"event","id":"01KJEZ6S90TBTJVQJAJKY2BJ0R","source":"ioda","ts":"2026-02-27T07:15:00.000Z","tags":["ioda:critical","ioda:us_state"],"url":"https://ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu/region/4438","source_url":"https://api.ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu/v2/outages/alerts?from=1772150400&until=1772323200&entityType=region&relatedTo=country%2FUS&limit=5000","fetched_at":"2026-02-27T08:15:00.000Z","raw_key":"ioda-us-regions-20260227.json"}]},{"sign_id":"fort_meade_ring","words":"Fort Meade ring MAYDAY","plain":"Food places near Fort Meade are at MAYDAY","module":"mayday","kind":"alert","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Not enough data in the last hour.","note":"The Mayday Index has no history before launch.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["cyber-us-infrastructure"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"threats_on_officials","words":"Threats or attacks on officials and judges over baseline (ACLED, DOJ charges)","plain":"More threats or attacks on officials and judges than normal","module":"homeland","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"An editor sign, and no ACLED history was collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["domestic-instability"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"armed_demonstrations","words":"armed demonstrations over baseline (ACLED)","plain":"More armed demonstrations than normal","module":"pulse","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"An editor sign, and no ACLED history was collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["domestic-instability"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"refusal_to_certify","words":"a state or official refusing to certify a result or obey a court order","plain":"A state or an official refuses to certify a result or obey a court order","module":"homeland","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["domestic-instability"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"public_break","words":"a public break with the federal government by a governor, general or senior law enforcement leader","plain":"A governor, a general or a top police leader breaks with the federal government in public","module":"homeland","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["domestic-instability"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"guard_over_objection","words":"National Guard deployed over a governor's objection","plain":"The National Guard deploys in a state over its governor's objection","module":"homeland","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["domestic-instability"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"tfr_state_capital","words":"TFR over a state capital","plain":"A new security flight restriction over a state capital","module":"sky","kind":"event","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"The FAA flight restrictions feed has not run yet.","note":"No FAA flight restriction archive was collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["domestic-instability","election-disruption"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"election_psa","words":"CISA or FBI election PSA","plain":"CISA or the FBI warns the public about a threat to an election","module":"homeland","kind":"any","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"CISA election advisory: the CISA advisories feed has not run yet. FBI warning, marked by an editor: needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"No history of CISA advisories was collected, and the editor part needs an editor mark.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["election-disruption"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"election_office_advisories","words":"election-office advisories in 3 or more states","plain":"Election offices in 3 or more states post warnings","module":"homeland","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"An editor sign, and no election-office advisories were collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["election-disruption"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"certified_market_swing","words":"Kalshi or Polymarket odds swing over 15 points on a certified-result market","plain":"Betting odds on a certified election result swing 15 points or more in a day","module":"pulse","kind":"metric","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"No readings yet.","note":"No market on a certified election result was collected for any window, and no Kalshi history.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["election-disruption"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"us_protest_over_baseline","words":"GDELT US protest events over baseline","plain":"Far more protest news in the US than normal","module":"pulse","kind":"metric","state":"NOT LIT","why":"Within the normal range for this time of week.","note":null,"confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"One source, graded C3.","fetched_at":"2026-02-28T03:00:00.000Z","scenarios":["election-disruption"],"findings":[{"key":"country:US","label":"Protest news in the US","measure":"z","value":-0.46140033616028614,"bar":3,"lit":false,"ts":"2026-02-28T02:45:00.000Z"}],"inputs":[{"type":"reading","db":"pulse","metric":"gdelt_country_protest","key":"country:US","ts":"2026-02-28T02:45:00.000Z","value":5,"z":-0.46140033616028614,"baseline":{"n":40,"mean":5.733868402956959,"median":4,"mad":2.5,"method":"poisson_v1"},"source":"gdelt","source_url":"https://data.gdeltproject.org/gdeltv2/20260228024500.export.CSV.zip","fetched_at":"2026-02-28T03:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"20260228024500.export.CSV.zip"}]},{"sign_id":"etf_shock","words":"Defense or energy ETF move over 2 robust-z in a day","plain":"Defense or energy funds move far more than normal in a day","module":"money","kind":"metric","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"No readings yet.","note":"Fund prices need the owner's price key. Running prepare again with it can fill this sign.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["war-market-shock"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"money_cluster","words":"Follow the Money cluster alert","plain":"Three or more public filers report buying or selling the same watched stock in the same week","module":"money","kind":"alert","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"The House disclosure feed or the SEC Form 4 feed has not run yet.","note":"Follow the Money timing flags are not replayed in the backtest.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["war-market-shock"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"vix_over_baseline","words":"VIX over baseline","plain":"Stock market fear far above normal","module":"money","kind":"metric","state":"NOT LIT","why":"Within the normal range for this time of week.","note":null,"confidence":"MODERATE","confidence_reason":"One source graded B2 or better.","fetched_at":"2026-02-27T05:00:00.000Z","scenarios":["war-market-shock"],"findings":[{"key":"VIXCLS","label":"Market fear (the VIX)","measure":"z","value":0.6699115646258496,"bar":3,"lit":false,"ts":"2026-02-26T00:00:00.000Z"}],"inputs":[{"type":"reading","db":"core","metric":"vix","key":"VIXCLS","ts":"2026-02-26T00:00:00.000Z","value":18.63,"z":0.6699115646258496,"baseline":{"n":132,"mean":17.559537591355628,"median":17.17,"mad":1.4699999999999989,"method":"robust_z_v1"},"source":"fred","source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=VIXCLS","fetched_at":"2026-02-27T05:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"vixcls.csv"}]},{"sign_id":"sanctions_over_baseline","words":"sanctions adds over baseline","plain":"Far more sanctions added than normal","module":"pulse","kind":"metric","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"No readings yet.","note":"No history of the OFAC sanctions list was collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["war-market-shock"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]}],"series":[{"db":"pulse","metric":"gdelt_country_protest","key":"country:US","source":"gdelt","label":null,"tags":[],"readings_known":5472,"first_ts":"2026-01-02T03:00:00.000Z","latest":{"ts":"2026-02-28T02:45:00.000Z","value":5,"source_url":"https://data.gdeltproject.org/gdeltv2/20260228024500.export.CSV.zip","fetched_at":"2026-02-28T03:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"20260228024500.export.CSV.zip"},"baseline":{"as_of":"2026-02-27T07:00:00.000Z","pool":"slot","n":40,"warm":true}},{"db":"pulse","metric":"gdelt_country_tone","key":"country:IR","source":"gdelt","label":"News about Iran","tags":["strike_target"],"readings_known":5357,"first_ts":"2026-01-02T03:15:00.000Z","latest":{"ts":"2026-02-28T02:45:00.000Z","value":-4.1205,"source_url":"https://data.gdeltproject.org/gdeltv2/20260228024500.export.CSV.zip","fetched_at":"2026-02-28T03:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"20260228024500.export.CSV.zip"},"baseline":{"as_of":"2026-02-27T07:00:00.000Z","pool":"slot","n":40,"warm":true}},{"db":"pulse","metric":"odds","key":"polymarket:1198423","source":"polymarket","label":"Odds of a US strike on Iran by February 28, 2026","tags":["strike"],"readings_known":96,"first_ts":"2026-02-24T03:00:16.000Z","latest":{"ts":"2026-02-28T02:00:26.000Z","value":0.165,"source_url":"https://clob.polymarket.com/prices-history?market=110790003121442365126855864076707686014650523258783405996925622264696084778807&interval=max&fidelity=60","fetched_at":"2026-02-28T02:00:26.000Z","raw_key":"hist-us-strikes-iran-by-february-28-2026.json"},"baseline":null},{"db":"pulse","metric":"odds","key":"polymarket:984441","source":"polymarket","label":"Odds of a US strike on Iran by March 31, 2026","tags":["strike"],"readings_known":96,"first_ts":"2026-02-24T03:00:25.000Z","latest":{"ts":"2026-02-28T02:00:31.000Z","value":0.675,"source_url":"https://clob.polymarket.com/prices-history?market=114073431155826730926052468626599502581519892859155799641358176120253844422606&interval=max&fidelity=60","fetched_at":"2026-02-28T02:00:31.000Z","raw_key":"hist-us-strikes-iran-by-march-31-2026-393-881-954.json"},"baseline":null},{"db":"core","metric":"vix","key":"VIXCLS","source":"fred","label":null,"tags":[],"readings_known":132,"first_ts":"2025-08-25T00:00:00.000Z","latest":{"ts":"2026-02-26T00:00:00.000Z","value":18.63,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=VIXCLS","fetched_at":"2026-02-27T05:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"vixcls.csv"},"baseline":{"as_of":"2026-02-27T07:00:00.000Z","pool":"all_days","n":132,"warm":true}},{"db":"core","metric":"oil_wti","key":"DCOILWTICO","source":"fred","label":null,"tags":[],"readings_known":126,"first_ts":"2025-08-25T00:00:00.000Z","latest":{"ts":"2026-02-26T00:00:00.000Z","value":65.1,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=DCOILWTICO","fetched_at":"2026-02-27T05:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"dcoilwtico.csv"},"baseline":null},{"db":"core","metric":"kev_adds","key":"US","source":"cisa_kev","label":null,"tags":[],"readings_known":187,"first_ts":"2025-08-24T00:00:00.000Z","latest":{"ts":"2026-02-26T00:00:00.000Z","value":0,"source_url":"https://www.cisa.gov/sites/default/files/feeds/known_exploited_vulnerabilities.json","fetched_at":"2026-02-27T05:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"kev.json"},"baseline":{"as_of":"2026-02-27T07:00:00.000Z","pool":"all_days","n":187,"warm":true}}],"events":[{"source":"ioda","known":5}],"sources":[{"source":"ioda","last_ok_at":"2026-02-28T03:00:00.000Z","status":"ok","source_url":"https://api.ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu/v2/outages/alerts?from=1772150400&until=1772323200&entityType=region&relatedTo=country%2FUS&limit=5000","fetched_at":"2026-02-28T03:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"ioda-us-regions-20260227.json"}]}],"summary":{"outcome":"blind","highest_status":"NORMAL","scenario_reached":"NORMAL","evaluable_signs":2,"total_signs":7,"signs_needed":4,"lit":[{"sign_id":"strike_market_jump","plain":"Betting odds on a US strike up 15 points or more in a day","scenarios":["us-strike-abroad"],"at":["2026-02-28T03:00:00.000Z"]},{"sign_id":"ioda_us_state_outage","plain":"A large internet outage in a US state","scenarios":["cyber-us-infrastructure"],"at":["2026-02-28T03:00:00.000Z"]}],"words":["Epic Fury: the status line read NORMAL at February 27, 2026, 10 pm Eastern.","US military strike abroad reached NORMAL, with at most 1 of its 7 signs lit. 2 of them had data. ELEVATED takes 4 lit, from two modules.","The backtest could not have raised it: too few of its signs have free history.","Lit: betting odds on a US strike up 15 points or more in a day and a large internet outage in a US state."]}},{"id":"W3","name":"Minnesota water systems","event":"Cyberattacks on more than 30 community water systems in Minnesota, reported July 24 to 27, 2026. The window is that weekend, from Friday evening.","zone":"America/Chicago","scenario_of_interest":"cyber-us-infrastructure","expect":"raised","provisional":false,"chosen_by":null,"label":null,"gaps":[{"sources":["cisa_kev","ioda"],"signs":[],"from":null,"to":null,"reason":"Only 2 of the 6 signs of a major cyber event on US infrastructure can be evaluated: flaws added to CISA's list and IODA outages in US states. It takes 3 lit to reach ELEVATED, so this window cannot show ELEVATED, whatever the data say."},{"sources":["polymarket","gdelt"],"signs":["strike_market_jump","target_tone_drop"],"from":null,"to":null,"reason":"No strike market was found that traded that weekend, so the strike market sign has no series and no country is a strike target for the tone sign. Both are NOT EVALUATED."}],"evaluations":[{"evaluate_at":"2026-07-24T23:00:00.000Z","local_time":"2026-07-24T18:00","zone":"America/Chicago","baseline_as_of":"2026-07-24T07:00:00.000Z","status_line":{"evaluated_at":"2026-07-24T23:00:00.000Z","status":"NORMAL","rule_status":"NORMAL","held":false,"sentence":"No scenario has enough signs lit.","rule":"none","produced_by":{"alerts":[],"scenarios":[]},"version":"replay-1+692c1e40db38971c","source_url":"data/backtest/results.json","fetched_at":"2026-07-24T17:45:00.000Z","raw_key":"results.json"},"scenarios":[{"scenario_id":"us-strike-abroad","name":"US military strike abroad","lit":0,"not_lit":0,"not_evaluated":7,"total":7,"modules_lit":[],"counted":false,"reaches":"NORMAL","contribution":"NORMAL","elevated_at":4,"mayday_at":6,"weight_lit":0,"weight_total":7,"why":"0 of 7 signs lit. 7 not evaluated.","gaps":["Classified movements and orders.","Aircraft that fly without ADS-B or with blocked positions.","Encrypted communications.","Anything that is not on a public feed.","Food places near the Pentagon are at MAYDAY: not enough data in the last hour.","Food places near the White House are at MAYDAY: not enough data in the last hour.","Far more tanker planes than normal over one region: no readings yet.","An airborne command post flying at an unusual hour: no readings yet.","Betting odds on a US strike up 15 points or more in a day: no readings yet.","News about the target country turns far darker than normal: no readings yet.","A new security flight restriction over Washington, or executive jets flying far more than normal: security flight restriction over Washington: the FAA flight restrictions feed has not run yet. Executive jets: no readings yet."],"signs":[{"sign_id":"pentagon_ring","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"white_house_ring","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"tanker_surge","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"command_aircraft_offhours","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"strike_market_jump","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"target_tone_drop","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"dc_tfr_or_exec_aircraft","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1}],"source_url":"data/backtest/results.json","fetched_at":"2026-07-24T23:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"results.json"},{"scenario_id":"great-power-escalation","name":"Great-power escalation","lit":0,"not_lit":1,"not_evaluated":6,"total":7,"modules_lit":[],"counted":false,"reaches":"NORMAL","contribution":"NORMAL","elevated_at":3,"mayday_at":5,"weight_lit":0,"weight_total":7,"why":"0 of 7 signs lit. 6 not evaluated.","gaps":["Submarine positions.","Nuclear alert levels.","Diplomatic channels.","UKMTO warnings, Joint War Committee lists and UN Security Council sessions until an editor marks them.","Two credible outlets report nuclear bombers moved to other bases, or more submarines at sea: needs an editor. No mark yet.","An airborne command post flying at an unusual hour: no readings yet.","The State Department orders staff out of a country, or tells Americans not to travel to a G20 country: the State Department travel advisories feed has not run yet.","A warning to ships in a major strait: nGA navigational warning: the NGA navigational warnings feed has not run yet. UKMTO warning, marked by an editor: needs an editor. No mark yet.","Marine insurers add a sea area to their war risk list: needs an editor. No mark yet.","The UN Security Council holds an emergency session: needs an editor. No mark yet."],"signs":[{"sign_id":"bomber_sub_reports","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"command_aircraft_offhours","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"state_departure_or_level4","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"strait_warning","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"jwc_listed_area","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"oil_jump","state":"NOT LIT","weight":1},{"sign_id":"unsc_emergency","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1}],"source_url":"data/backtest/results.json","fetched_at":"2026-07-24T04:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"results.json"},{"scenario_id":"cyber-us-infrastructure","name":"Major cyber event on US infrastructure","lit":1,"not_lit":1,"not_evaluated":4,"total":6,"modules_lit":["pulse"],"counted":false,"reaches":"NORMAL","contribution":"NORMAL","elevated_at":3,"mayday_at":5,"weight_lit":1,"weight_total":6,"why":"1 of 6 signs lit, from 1 module. 4 not evaluated.","gaps":["Incidents not yet disclosed.","Classified attribution.","Private network telemetry.","Cloudflare Radar data until an editor marks it.","CISA gives federal agencies an emergency order about a threat: the CISA advisories feed has not run yet.","Far more US ransomware victims posted than normal: no readings yet.","Cloudflare reports an outage or an attack spike in a US region: needs an editor. No mark yet.","Food places near Fort Meade are at MAYDAY: not enough data in the last hour."],"signs":[{"sign_id":"cisa_emergency_directive","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"kev_over_baseline","state":"NOT LIT","weight":1},{"sign_id":"ransomware_us_over_baseline","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"radar_us_anomaly","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"ioda_us_state_outage","state":"LIT","weight":1},{"sign_id":"fort_meade_ring","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1}],"source_url":"data/backtest/results.json","fetched_at":"2026-07-24T07:55:00.000Z","raw_key":"results.json"},{"scenario_id":"domestic-instability","name":"Domestic instability","lit":0,"not_lit":0,"not_evaluated":6,"total":6,"modules_lit":[],"counted":false,"reaches":"NORMAL","contribution":"NORMAL","elevated_at":3,"mayday_at":5,"weight_lit":0,"weight_total":6,"why":"0 of 6 signs lit. 6 not evaluated.","gaps":["ACLED data until its keys exist.","Threats that never become a public charge.","Private talks between officials.","More threats or attacks on officials and judges than normal: needs an editor. No mark yet.","More armed demonstrations than normal: needs an editor. No mark yet.","A state or an official refuses to certify a result or obey a court order: needs an editor. No mark yet.","A governor, a general or a top police leader breaks with the federal government in public: needs an editor. No mark yet.","The National Guard deploys in a state over its governor's objection: needs an editor. No mark yet.","A new security flight restriction over a state capital: the FAA flight restrictions feed has not run yet."],"signs":[{"sign_id":"threats_on_officials","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"armed_demonstrations","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"refusal_to_certify","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"public_break","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"guard_over_objection","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"tfr_state_capital","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1}],"source_url":"data/backtest/results.json","fetched_at":"2026-07-24T23:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"results.json"},{"scenario_id":"election-disruption","name":"Election disruption","lit":1,"not_lit":0,"not_evaluated":4,"total":5,"modules_lit":["pulse"],"counted":false,"reaches":"NORMAL","contribution":"NORMAL","elevated_at":3,"mayday_at":4,"weight_lit":1,"weight_total":5,"why":"1 of 5 signs lit, from 1 module. 4 not evaluated.","gaps":["State election office notices until an editor marks them.","FBI announcements until an editor marks them.","Private threats to election workers.","CISA or the FBI warns the public about a threat to an election: cISA election advisory: the CISA advisories feed has not run yet. FBI warning, marked by an editor: needs an editor. No mark yet.","Election offices in 3 or more states post warnings: needs an editor. No mark yet.","Betting odds on a certified election result swing 15 points or more in a day: no readings yet.","A new security flight restriction over a state capital: the FAA flight restrictions feed has not run yet."],"signs":[{"sign_id":"election_psa","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"election_office_advisories","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"certified_market_swing","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"us_protest_over_baseline","state":"LIT","weight":1},{"sign_id":"tfr_state_capital","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1}],"source_url":"data/backtest/results.json","fetched_at":"2026-07-24T17:45:00.000Z","raw_key":"results.json"},{"scenario_id":"war-market-shock","name":"War-driven market shock","lit":0,"not_lit":1,"not_evaluated":4,"total":5,"modules_lit":[],"counted":false,"reaches":"NORMAL","contribution":"NORMAL","elevated_at":3,"mayday_at":4,"weight_lit":0,"weight_total":5,"why":"0 of 5 signs lit. 4 not evaluated.","gaps":["Trades not filed yet: members of Congress report up to 45 days late.","Private and off-exchange trading.","Joint War Committee lists until an editor marks them.","Defense or energy funds move far more than normal in a day: no readings yet.","Three or more public filers report buying or selling the same watched stock in the same week: the House disclosure feed or the SEC Form 4 feed has not run yet.","Marine insurers add a sea area to their war risk list: needs an editor. No mark yet.","Far more sanctions added than normal: no readings yet."],"signs":[{"sign_id":"etf_shock","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"money_cluster","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"vix_over_baseline","state":"NOT LIT","weight":1},{"sign_id":"jwc_listed_area","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"sanctions_over_baseline","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1}],"source_url":"data/backtest/results.json","fetched_at":"2026-07-24T04:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"results.json"}],"signs":[{"sign_id":"pentagon_ring","words":"Pentagon ring MAYDAY","plain":"Food places near the Pentagon are at MAYDAY","module":"mayday","kind":"alert","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Not enough data in the last hour.","note":"The Mayday Index has no history before launch.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["us-strike-abroad"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"white_house_ring","words":"White House ring MAYDAY","plain":"Food places near the White House are at MAYDAY","module":"mayday","kind":"alert","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Not enough data in the last hour.","note":"The Mayday Index has no history before launch.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["us-strike-abroad"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"tanker_surge","words":"tanker surge over a region","plain":"Far more tanker planes than normal over one region","module":"sky","kind":"metric","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"No readings yet.","note":"ADS-B archives run to gigabytes a day, so no flight history was collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["us-strike-abroad"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"command_aircraft_offhours","words":"E-4B or E-6B airborne off-hours","plain":"An airborne command post flying at an unusual hour","module":"sky","kind":"metric","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"No readings yet.","note":"ADS-B archives run to gigabytes a day, so no flight history was collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["us-strike-abroad","great-power-escalation"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"strike_market_jump","words":"Kalshi or Polymarket strike market up 15 points in 24 h","plain":"Betting odds on a US strike up 15 points or more in a day","module":"pulse","kind":"metric","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"No readings yet.","note":"No strike market was found that traded that weekend, so the strike market sign has no series and no country is a strike target for the tone sign. Both are NOT EVALUATED.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["us-strike-abroad"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"target_tone_drop","words":"GDELT tone drop for the target country","plain":"News about the target country turns far darker than normal","module":"pulse","kind":"metric","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"No readings yet.","note":"No strike market was found that traded that weekend, so the strike market sign has no series and no country is a strike target for the tone sign. Both are NOT EVALUATED.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["us-strike-abroad"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"dc_tfr_or_exec_aircraft","words":"DC TFR or executive aircraft moving","plain":"A new security flight restriction over Washington, or executive jets flying far more than normal","module":"sky","kind":"any","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Security flight restriction over Washington: the FAA flight restrictions feed has not run yet. Executive jets: no readings yet.","note":"No FAA flight restriction archive and no flight history were collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["us-strike-abroad"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"bomber_sub_reports","words":"Nuclear-capable bombers dispersed or a submarine surge, reported by two credible outlets","plain":"Two credible outlets report nuclear bombers moved to other bases, or more submarines at sea","module":"sky","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["great-power-escalation"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"state_departure_or_level4","words":"State Department ordered departure or Level 4 for a G20 country","plain":"The State Department orders staff out of a country, or tells Americans not to travel to a G20 country","module":"pulse","kind":"event","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"The State Department travel advisories feed has not run yet.","note":"No history of State Department travel advisories was collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["great-power-escalation"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"strait_warning","words":"NAVAREA or UKMTO warning in a major strait","plain":"A warning to ships in a major strait","module":"sky","kind":"any","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"NGA navigational warning: the NGA navigational warnings feed has not run yet. UKMTO warning, marked by an editor: needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"No history of NGA warnings to ships was collected, and the editor part needs an editor mark.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["great-power-escalation"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"jwc_listed_area","words":"Joint War Committee adds a listed area","plain":"Marine insurers add a sea area to their war risk list","module":"money","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"An editor sign, and no Joint War Committee lists were collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["great-power-escalation","war-market-shock"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"oil_jump","words":"oil up 8% or more in a day","plain":"Oil prices up 8% or more in a day","module":"money","kind":"metric","state":"NOT LIT","why":"No move of 8% or more from the day before.","note":null,"confidence":"MODERATE","confidence_reason":"One source graded B2 or better.","fetched_at":"2026-07-24T04:00:00.000Z","scenarios":["great-power-escalation"],"findings":[{"key":"DCOILWTICO","label":"Oil","measure":"change","value":6.18298,"bar":8,"lit":false,"ts":"2026-07-23T00:00:00.000Z"}],"inputs":[{"type":"reading","db":"core","metric":"oil_wti","key":"DCOILWTICO","ts":"2026-07-22T00:00:00.000Z","value":87.66,"z":null,"baseline":null,"source":"fred","source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=DCOILWTICO","fetched_at":"2026-07-23T04:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"dcoilwtico.csv"},{"type":"reading","db":"core","metric":"oil_wti","key":"DCOILWTICO","ts":"2026-07-23T00:00:00.000Z","value":93.08,"z":null,"baseline":null,"source":"fred","source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=DCOILWTICO","fetched_at":"2026-07-24T04:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"dcoilwtico.csv"}]},{"sign_id":"unsc_emergency","words":"emergency UN Security Council session","plain":"The UN Security Council holds an emergency session","module":"pulse","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["great-power-escalation"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"cisa_emergency_directive","words":"New CISA emergency directive","plain":"CISA gives federal agencies an emergency order about a threat","module":"homeland","kind":"event","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"The CISA advisories feed has not run yet.","note":"No history of CISA advisories was collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["cyber-us-infrastructure"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"kev_over_baseline","words":"KEV adds over baseline","plain":"Far more actively exploited flaws than normal added to CISA's list","module":"homeland","kind":"metric","state":"NOT LIT","why":"Within the normal range for this time of week.","note":null,"confidence":"MODERATE","confidence_reason":"One source graded B2 or better.","fetched_at":"2026-07-24T04:00:00.000Z","scenarios":["cyber-us-infrastructure"],"findings":[{"key":"US","label":"Flaws added to CISA's list","measure":"z","value":-8,"bar":3,"lit":false,"ts":"2026-07-23T00:00:00.000Z"}],"inputs":[{"type":"reading","db":"core","metric":"kev_adds","key":"US","ts":"2026-07-23T00:00:00.000Z","value":0,"z":-8,"baseline":{"n":188,"mean":0.8741328844954435,"median":0,"mad":0,"method":"poisson_v1"},"source":"cisa_kev","source_url":"https://www.cisa.gov/sites/default/files/feeds/known_exploited_vulnerabilities.json","fetched_at":"2026-07-24T04:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"kev.json"}]},{"sign_id":"ransomware_us_over_baseline","words":"ransomware.live US victims over baseline","plain":"Far more US ransomware victims posted than normal","module":"homeland","kind":"metric","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"No readings yet.","note":"ransomware.live history now needs a paid key.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["cyber-us-infrastructure"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"radar_us_anomaly","words":"Cloudflare Radar outage or attack anomaly for a US region","plain":"Cloudflare reports an outage or an attack spike in a US region","module":"pulse","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["cyber-us-infrastructure"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"ioda_us_state_outage","words":"IODA internet outage in a US state","plain":"A large internet outage in a US state","module":"pulse","kind":"event","state":"LIT","why":"Seen once in the last 24 hours.","note":null,"confidence":"MODERATE","confidence_reason":"One source graded B2 or better.","fetched_at":"2026-07-24T07:55:00.000Z","scenarios":["cyber-us-infrastructure"],"findings":[{"id":"01KY9EFTD0X00H40FYH5CT11KW","label":null,"measure":"event","value":null,"bar":null,"lit":true,"ts":"2026-07-24T06:55:00.000Z"}],"inputs":[{"type":"event","id":"01KY9EFTD0X00H40FYH5CT11KW","source":"ioda","ts":"2026-07-24T06:55:00.000Z","tags":["ioda:critical","ioda:us_state"],"url":"https://ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu/region/4422","source_url":"https://api.ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu/v2/outages/alerts?from=1784851200&until=1785196800&entityType=region&relatedTo=country%2FUS&limit=5000","fetched_at":"2026-07-24T07:55:00.000Z","raw_key":"ioda-us-regions-20260724.json"}]},{"sign_id":"fort_meade_ring","words":"Fort Meade ring MAYDAY","plain":"Food places near Fort Meade are at MAYDAY","module":"mayday","kind":"alert","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Not enough data in the last hour.","note":"The Mayday Index has no history before launch.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["cyber-us-infrastructure"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"threats_on_officials","words":"Threats or attacks on officials and judges over baseline (ACLED, DOJ charges)","plain":"More threats or attacks on officials and judges than normal","module":"homeland","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"An editor sign, and no ACLED history was collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["domestic-instability"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"armed_demonstrations","words":"armed demonstrations over baseline (ACLED)","plain":"More armed demonstrations than normal","module":"pulse","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"An editor sign, and no ACLED history was collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["domestic-instability"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"refusal_to_certify","words":"a state or official refusing to certify a result or obey a court order","plain":"A state or an official refuses to certify a result or obey a court order","module":"homeland","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["domestic-instability"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"public_break","words":"a public break with the federal government by a governor, general or senior law enforcement leader","plain":"A governor, a general or a top police leader breaks with the federal government in public","module":"homeland","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["domestic-instability"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"guard_over_objection","words":"National Guard deployed over a governor's objection","plain":"The National Guard deploys in a state over its governor's objection","module":"homeland","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["domestic-instability"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"tfr_state_capital","words":"TFR over a state capital","plain":"A new security flight restriction over a state capital","module":"sky","kind":"event","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"The FAA flight restrictions feed has not run yet.","note":"No FAA flight restriction archive was collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["domestic-instability","election-disruption"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"election_psa","words":"CISA or FBI election PSA","plain":"CISA or the FBI warns the public about a threat to an election","module":"homeland","kind":"any","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"CISA election advisory: the CISA advisories feed has not run yet. FBI warning, marked by an editor: needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"No history of CISA advisories was collected, and the editor part needs an editor mark.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["election-disruption"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"election_office_advisories","words":"election-office advisories in 3 or more states","plain":"Election offices in 3 or more states post warnings","module":"homeland","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"An editor sign, and no election-office advisories were collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["election-disruption"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"certified_market_swing","words":"Kalshi or Polymarket odds swing over 15 points on a certified-result market","plain":"Betting odds on a certified election result swing 15 points or more in a day","module":"pulse","kind":"metric","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"No readings yet.","note":"No market on a certified election result was collected for any window, and no Kalshi history.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["election-disruption"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"us_protest_over_baseline","words":"GDELT US protest events over baseline","plain":"Far more protest news in the US than normal","module":"pulse","kind":"metric","state":"LIT","why":"Protest news in the US: far above normal, in the last 24 hours.","note":null,"confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"One source, graded C3.","fetched_at":"2026-07-24T17:45:00.000Z","scenarios":["election-disruption"],"findings":[{"key":"country:US","label":"Protest news in the US","measure":"z","value":4.041124072010652,"bar":4,"lit":true,"ts":"2026-07-24T17:30:00.000Z"}],"inputs":[{"type":"reading","db":"pulse","metric":"gdelt_country_protest","key":"country:US","ts":"2026-07-24T17:30:00.000Z","value":11,"z":4.041124072010652,"baseline":{"n":40,"mean":2.2736177367176524,"median":1.5,"mad":1,"method":"poisson_v1"},"source":"gdelt","source_url":"https://data.gdeltproject.org/gdeltv2/20260724173000.export.CSV.zip","fetched_at":"2026-07-24T17:45:00.000Z","raw_key":"20260724173000.export.CSV.zip"}]},{"sign_id":"etf_shock","words":"Defense or energy ETF move over 2 robust-z in a day","plain":"Defense or energy funds move far more than normal in a day","module":"money","kind":"metric","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"No readings yet.","note":"Fund prices need the owner's price key. Running prepare again with it can fill this sign.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["war-market-shock"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"money_cluster","words":"Follow the Money cluster alert","plain":"Three or more public filers report buying or selling the same watched stock in the same week","module":"money","kind":"alert","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"The House disclosure feed or the SEC Form 4 feed has not run yet.","note":"Follow the Money timing flags are not replayed in the backtest.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["war-market-shock"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"vix_over_baseline","words":"VIX over baseline","plain":"Stock market fear far above normal","module":"money","kind":"metric","state":"NOT LIT","why":"Within the normal range for this time of week.","note":null,"confidence":"MODERATE","confidence_reason":"One source graded B2 or better.","fetched_at":"2026-07-24T04:00:00.000Z","scenarios":["war-market-shock"],"findings":[{"key":"VIXCLS","label":"Market fear (the VIX)","measure":"z","value":0.5901875000000008,"bar":3,"lit":false,"ts":"2026-07-23T00:00:00.000Z"}],"inputs":[{"type":"reading","db":"core","metric":"vix","key":"VIXCLS","ts":"2026-07-23T00:00:00.000Z","value":18.7,"z":0.5901875000000008,"baseline":{"n":133,"mean":18.385736427667783,"median":17.65,"mad":1.1999999999999993,"method":"robust_z_v1"},"source":"fred","source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=VIXCLS","fetched_at":"2026-07-24T04:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"vixcls.csv"}]},{"sign_id":"sanctions_over_baseline","words":"sanctions adds over baseline","plain":"Far more sanctions added than normal","module":"pulse","kind":"metric","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"No readings yet.","note":"No history of the OFAC sanctions list was collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["war-market-shock"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]}],"series":[{"db":"pulse","metric":"gdelt_country_protest","key":"country:US","source":"gdelt","label":null,"tags":[],"readings_known":5472,"first_ts":"2026-05-28T23:00:00.000Z","latest":{"ts":"2026-07-24T22:45:00.000Z","value":6,"source_url":"https://data.gdeltproject.org/gdeltv2/20260724224500.export.CSV.zip","fetched_at":"2026-07-24T23:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"20260724224500.export.CSV.zip"},"baseline":{"as_of":"2026-07-24T07:00:00.000Z","pool":"slot","n":40,"warm":true}},{"db":"core","metric":"vix","key":"VIXCLS","source":"fred","label":null,"tags":[],"readings_known":133,"first_ts":"2026-01-19T00:00:00.000Z","latest":{"ts":"2026-07-23T00:00:00.000Z","value":18.7,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=VIXCLS","fetched_at":"2026-07-24T04:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"vixcls.csv"},"baseline":{"as_of":"2026-07-24T07:00:00.000Z","pool":"all_days","n":133,"warm":true}},{"db":"core","metric":"oil_wti","key":"DCOILWTICO","source":"fred","label":null,"tags":[],"readings_known":128,"first_ts":"2026-01-20T00:00:00.000Z","latest":{"ts":"2026-07-23T00:00:00.000Z","value":93.08,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=DCOILWTICO","fetched_at":"2026-07-24T04:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"dcoilwtico.csv"},"baseline":null},{"db":"core","metric":"kev_adds","key":"US","source":"cisa_kev","label":null,"tags":[],"readings_known":188,"first_ts":"2026-01-17T00:00:00.000Z","latest":{"ts":"2026-07-23T00:00:00.000Z","value":0,"source_url":"https://www.cisa.gov/sites/default/files/feeds/known_exploited_vulnerabilities.json","fetched_at":"2026-07-24T04:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"kev.json"},"baseline":{"as_of":"2026-07-24T07:00:00.000Z","pool":"all_days","n":188,"warm":true}}],"events":[{"source":"ioda","known":3}],"sources":[{"source":"ioda","last_ok_at":"2026-07-24T23:00:00.000Z","status":"ok","source_url":"https://api.ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu/v2/outages/alerts?from=1784851200&until=1785196800&entityType=region&relatedTo=country%2FUS&limit=5000","fetched_at":"2026-07-24T23:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"ioda-us-regions-20260724.json"}]},{"evaluate_at":"2026-07-25T17:00:00.000Z","local_time":"2026-07-25T12:00","zone":"America/Chicago","baseline_as_of":"2026-07-25T07:00:00.000Z","status_line":{"evaluated_at":"2026-07-25T17:00:00.000Z","status":"NORMAL","rule_status":"NORMAL","held":false,"sentence":"No scenario has enough signs lit.","rule":"none","produced_by":{"alerts":[],"scenarios":[]},"version":"replay-1+692c1e40db38971c","source_url":"data/backtest/results.json","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T17:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"results.json"},"scenarios":[{"scenario_id":"us-strike-abroad","name":"US military strike abroad","lit":0,"not_lit":0,"not_evaluated":7,"total":7,"modules_lit":[],"counted":false,"reaches":"NORMAL","contribution":"NORMAL","elevated_at":4,"mayday_at":6,"weight_lit":0,"weight_total":7,"why":"0 of 7 signs lit. 7 not evaluated.","gaps":["Classified movements and orders.","Aircraft that fly without ADS-B or with blocked positions.","Encrypted communications.","Anything that is not on a public feed.","Food places near the Pentagon are at MAYDAY: not enough data in the last hour.","Food places near the White House are at MAYDAY: not enough data in the last hour.","Far more tanker planes than normal over one region: no readings yet.","An airborne command post flying at an unusual hour: no readings yet.","Betting odds on a US strike up 15 points or more in a day: no readings yet.","News about the target country turns far darker than normal: no readings yet.","A new security flight restriction over Washington, or executive jets flying far more than normal: security flight restriction over Washington: the FAA flight restrictions feed has not run yet. Executive jets: no readings yet."],"signs":[{"sign_id":"pentagon_ring","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"white_house_ring","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"tanker_surge","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"command_aircraft_offhours","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"strike_market_jump","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"target_tone_drop","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"dc_tfr_or_exec_aircraft","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1}],"source_url":"data/backtest/results.json","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T17:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"results.json"},{"scenario_id":"great-power-escalation","name":"Great-power escalation","lit":0,"not_lit":1,"not_evaluated":6,"total":7,"modules_lit":[],"counted":false,"reaches":"NORMAL","contribution":"NORMAL","elevated_at":3,"mayday_at":5,"weight_lit":0,"weight_total":7,"why":"0 of 7 signs lit. 6 not evaluated.","gaps":["Submarine positions.","Nuclear alert levels.","Diplomatic channels.","UKMTO warnings, Joint War Committee lists and UN Security Council sessions until an editor marks them.","Two credible outlets report nuclear bombers moved to other bases, or more submarines at sea: needs an editor. No mark yet.","An airborne command post flying at an unusual hour: no readings yet.","The State Department orders staff out of a country, or tells Americans not to travel to a G20 country: the State Department travel advisories feed has not run yet.","A warning to ships in a major strait: nGA navigational warning: the NGA navigational warnings feed has not run yet. UKMTO warning, marked by an editor: needs an editor. No mark yet.","Marine insurers add a sea area to their war risk list: needs an editor. No mark yet.","The UN Security Council holds an emergency session: needs an editor. No mark yet."],"signs":[{"sign_id":"bomber_sub_reports","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"command_aircraft_offhours","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"state_departure_or_level4","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"strait_warning","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"jwc_listed_area","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"oil_jump","state":"NOT LIT","weight":1},{"sign_id":"unsc_emergency","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1}],"source_url":"data/backtest/results.json","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T04:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"results.json"},{"scenario_id":"cyber-us-infrastructure","name":"Major cyber event on US infrastructure","lit":0,"not_lit":2,"not_evaluated":4,"total":6,"modules_lit":[],"counted":false,"reaches":"NORMAL","contribution":"NORMAL","elevated_at":3,"mayday_at":5,"weight_lit":0,"weight_total":6,"why":"0 of 6 signs lit. 4 not evaluated.","gaps":["Incidents not yet disclosed.","Classified attribution.","Private network telemetry.","Cloudflare Radar data until an editor marks it.","CISA gives federal agencies an emergency order about a threat: the CISA advisories feed has not run yet.","Far more US ransomware victims posted than normal: no readings yet.","Cloudflare reports an outage or an attack spike in a US region: needs an editor. No mark yet.","Food places near Fort Meade are at MAYDAY: not enough data in the last hour."],"signs":[{"sign_id":"cisa_emergency_directive","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"kev_over_baseline","state":"NOT LIT","weight":1},{"sign_id":"ransomware_us_over_baseline","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"radar_us_anomaly","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"ioda_us_state_outage","state":"NOT LIT","weight":1},{"sign_id":"fort_meade_ring","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1}],"source_url":"data/backtest/results.json","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T17:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"results.json"},{"scenario_id":"domestic-instability","name":"Domestic instability","lit":0,"not_lit":0,"not_evaluated":6,"total":6,"modules_lit":[],"counted":false,"reaches":"NORMAL","contribution":"NORMAL","elevated_at":3,"mayday_at":5,"weight_lit":0,"weight_total":6,"why":"0 of 6 signs lit. 6 not evaluated.","gaps":["ACLED data until its keys exist.","Threats that never become a public charge.","Private talks between officials.","More threats or attacks on officials and judges than normal: needs an editor. No mark yet.","More armed demonstrations than normal: needs an editor. No mark yet.","A state or an official refuses to certify a result or obey a court order: needs an editor. No mark yet.","A governor, a general or a top police leader breaks with the federal government in public: needs an editor. No mark yet.","The National Guard deploys in a state over its governor's objection: needs an editor. No mark yet.","A new security flight restriction over a state capital: the FAA flight restrictions feed has not run yet."],"signs":[{"sign_id":"threats_on_officials","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"armed_demonstrations","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"refusal_to_certify","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"public_break","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"guard_over_objection","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"tfr_state_capital","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1}],"source_url":"data/backtest/results.json","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T17:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"results.json"},{"scenario_id":"election-disruption","name":"Election disruption","lit":1,"not_lit":0,"not_evaluated":4,"total":5,"modules_lit":["pulse"],"counted":false,"reaches":"NORMAL","contribution":"NORMAL","elevated_at":3,"mayday_at":4,"weight_lit":1,"weight_total":5,"why":"1 of 5 signs lit, from 1 module. 4 not evaluated.","gaps":["State election office notices until an editor marks them.","FBI announcements until an editor marks them.","Private threats to election workers.","CISA or the FBI warns the public about a threat to an election: cISA election advisory: the CISA advisories feed has not run yet. FBI warning, marked by an editor: needs an editor. No mark yet.","Election offices in 3 or more states post warnings: needs an editor. No mark yet.","Betting odds on a certified election result swing 15 points or more in a day: no readings yet.","A new security flight restriction over a state capital: the FAA flight restrictions feed has not run yet."],"signs":[{"sign_id":"election_psa","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"election_office_advisories","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"certified_market_swing","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"us_protest_over_baseline","state":"LIT","weight":1},{"sign_id":"tfr_state_capital","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1}],"source_url":"data/backtest/results.json","fetched_at":"2026-07-24T17:45:00.000Z","raw_key":"results.json"},{"scenario_id":"war-market-shock","name":"War-driven market shock","lit":0,"not_lit":1,"not_evaluated":4,"total":5,"modules_lit":[],"counted":false,"reaches":"NORMAL","contribution":"NORMAL","elevated_at":3,"mayday_at":4,"weight_lit":0,"weight_total":5,"why":"0 of 5 signs lit. 4 not evaluated.","gaps":["Trades not filed yet: members of Congress report up to 45 days late.","Private and off-exchange trading.","Joint War Committee lists until an editor marks them.","Defense or energy funds move far more than normal in a day: no readings yet.","Three or more public filers report buying or selling the same watched stock in the same week: the House disclosure feed or the SEC Form 4 feed has not run yet.","Marine insurers add a sea area to their war risk list: needs an editor. No mark yet.","Far more sanctions added than normal: no readings yet."],"signs":[{"sign_id":"etf_shock","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"money_cluster","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"vix_over_baseline","state":"NOT LIT","weight":1},{"sign_id":"jwc_listed_area","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"sanctions_over_baseline","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1}],"source_url":"data/backtest/results.json","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T04:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"results.json"}],"signs":[{"sign_id":"pentagon_ring","words":"Pentagon ring MAYDAY","plain":"Food places near the Pentagon are at MAYDAY","module":"mayday","kind":"alert","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Not enough data in the last hour.","note":"The Mayday Index has no history before launch.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["us-strike-abroad"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"white_house_ring","words":"White House ring MAYDAY","plain":"Food places near the White House are at MAYDAY","module":"mayday","kind":"alert","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Not enough data in the last hour.","note":"The Mayday Index has no history before launch.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["us-strike-abroad"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"tanker_surge","words":"tanker surge over a region","plain":"Far more tanker planes than normal over one region","module":"sky","kind":"metric","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"No readings yet.","note":"ADS-B archives run to gigabytes a day, so no flight history was collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["us-strike-abroad"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"command_aircraft_offhours","words":"E-4B or E-6B airborne off-hours","plain":"An airborne command post flying at an unusual hour","module":"sky","kind":"metric","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"No readings yet.","note":"ADS-B archives run to gigabytes a day, so no flight history was collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["us-strike-abroad","great-power-escalation"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"strike_market_jump","words":"Kalshi or Polymarket strike market up 15 points in 24 h","plain":"Betting odds on a US strike up 15 points or more in a day","module":"pulse","kind":"metric","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"No readings yet.","note":"No strike market was found that traded that weekend, so the strike market sign has no series and no country is a strike target for the tone sign. Both are NOT EVALUATED.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["us-strike-abroad"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"target_tone_drop","words":"GDELT tone drop for the target country","plain":"News about the target country turns far darker than normal","module":"pulse","kind":"metric","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"No readings yet.","note":"No strike market was found that traded that weekend, so the strike market sign has no series and no country is a strike target for the tone sign. Both are NOT EVALUATED.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["us-strike-abroad"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"dc_tfr_or_exec_aircraft","words":"DC TFR or executive aircraft moving","plain":"A new security flight restriction over Washington, or executive jets flying far more than normal","module":"sky","kind":"any","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Security flight restriction over Washington: the FAA flight restrictions feed has not run yet. Executive jets: no readings yet.","note":"No FAA flight restriction archive and no flight history were collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["us-strike-abroad"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"bomber_sub_reports","words":"Nuclear-capable bombers dispersed or a submarine surge, reported by two credible outlets","plain":"Two credible outlets report nuclear bombers moved to other bases, or more submarines at sea","module":"sky","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["great-power-escalation"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"state_departure_or_level4","words":"State Department ordered departure or Level 4 for a G20 country","plain":"The State Department orders staff out of a country, or tells Americans not to travel to a G20 country","module":"pulse","kind":"event","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"The State Department travel advisories feed has not run yet.","note":"No history of State Department travel advisories was collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["great-power-escalation"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"strait_warning","words":"NAVAREA or UKMTO warning in a major strait","plain":"A warning to ships in a major strait","module":"sky","kind":"any","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"NGA navigational warning: the NGA navigational warnings feed has not run yet. UKMTO warning, marked by an editor: needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"No history of NGA warnings to ships was collected, and the editor part needs an editor mark.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["great-power-escalation"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"jwc_listed_area","words":"Joint War Committee adds a listed area","plain":"Marine insurers add a sea area to their war risk list","module":"money","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"An editor sign, and no Joint War Committee lists were collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["great-power-escalation","war-market-shock"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"oil_jump","words":"oil up 8% or more in a day","plain":"Oil prices up 8% or more in a day","module":"money","kind":"metric","state":"NOT LIT","why":"No move of 8% or more from the day before.","note":null,"confidence":"MODERATE","confidence_reason":"One source graded B2 or better.","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T04:00:00.000Z","scenarios":["great-power-escalation"],"findings":[{"key":"DCOILWTICO","label":"Oil","measure":"change","value":-1.439622,"bar":8,"lit":false,"ts":"2026-07-24T00:00:00.000Z"}],"inputs":[{"type":"reading","db":"core","metric":"oil_wti","key":"DCOILWTICO","ts":"2026-07-23T00:00:00.000Z","value":93.08,"z":null,"baseline":null,"source":"fred","source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=DCOILWTICO","fetched_at":"2026-07-24T04:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"dcoilwtico.csv"},{"type":"reading","db":"core","metric":"oil_wti","key":"DCOILWTICO","ts":"2026-07-24T00:00:00.000Z","value":91.74,"z":null,"baseline":null,"source":"fred","source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=DCOILWTICO","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T04:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"dcoilwtico.csv"}]},{"sign_id":"unsc_emergency","words":"emergency UN Security Council session","plain":"The UN Security Council holds an emergency session","module":"pulse","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["great-power-escalation"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"cisa_emergency_directive","words":"New CISA emergency directive","plain":"CISA gives federal agencies an emergency order about a threat","module":"homeland","kind":"event","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"The CISA advisories feed has not run yet.","note":"No history of CISA advisories was collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["cyber-us-infrastructure"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"kev_over_baseline","words":"KEV adds over baseline","plain":"Far more actively exploited flaws than normal added to CISA's list","module":"homeland","kind":"metric","state":"NOT LIT","why":"Within the normal range for this time of week.","note":null,"confidence":"MODERATE","confidence_reason":"One source graded B2 or better.","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T04:00:00.000Z","scenarios":["cyber-us-infrastructure"],"findings":[{"key":"US","label":"Flaws added to CISA's list","measure":"z","value":-8,"bar":3,"lit":false,"ts":"2026-07-24T00:00:00.000Z"}],"inputs":[{"type":"reading","db":"core","metric":"kev_adds","key":"US","ts":"2026-07-24T00:00:00.000Z","value":0,"z":-8,"baseline":{"n":189,"mean":0.8622328562500559,"median":0,"mad":0,"method":"poisson_v1"},"source":"cisa_kev","source_url":"https://www.cisa.gov/sites/default/files/feeds/known_exploited_vulnerabilities.json","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T04:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"kev.json"}]},{"sign_id":"ransomware_us_over_baseline","words":"ransomware.live US victims over baseline","plain":"Far more US ransomware victims posted than normal","module":"homeland","kind":"metric","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"No readings yet.","note":"ransomware.live history now needs a paid key.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["cyber-us-infrastructure"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"radar_us_anomaly","words":"Cloudflare Radar outage or attack anomaly for a US region","plain":"Cloudflare reports an outage or an attack spike in a US region","module":"pulse","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["cyber-us-infrastructure"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"ioda_us_state_outage","words":"IODA internet outage in a US state","plain":"A large internet outage in a US state","module":"pulse","kind":"event","state":"NOT LIT","why":"None in the last 24 hours.","note":null,"confidence":"MODERATE","confidence_reason":"One source graded B2 or better.","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T17:00:00.000Z","scenarios":["cyber-us-infrastructure"],"findings":[],"inputs":[{"type":"source_run","source":"ioda","status":"ok","last_ok_at":"2026-07-25T17:00:00.000Z","source_url":"https://api.ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu/v2/outages/alerts?from=1784851200&until=1785196800&entityType=region&relatedTo=country%2FUS&limit=5000","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T17:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"ioda-us-regions-20260724.json"}]},{"sign_id":"fort_meade_ring","words":"Fort Meade ring MAYDAY","plain":"Food places near Fort Meade are at MAYDAY","module":"mayday","kind":"alert","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Not enough data in the last hour.","note":"The Mayday Index has no history before launch.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["cyber-us-infrastructure"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"threats_on_officials","words":"Threats or attacks on officials and judges over baseline (ACLED, DOJ charges)","plain":"More threats or attacks on officials and judges than normal","module":"homeland","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"An editor sign, and no ACLED history was collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["domestic-instability"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"armed_demonstrations","words":"armed demonstrations over baseline (ACLED)","plain":"More armed demonstrations than normal","module":"pulse","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"An editor sign, and no ACLED history was collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["domestic-instability"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"refusal_to_certify","words":"a state or official refusing to certify a result or obey a court order","plain":"A state or an official refuses to certify a result or obey a court order","module":"homeland","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["domestic-instability"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"public_break","words":"a public break with the federal government by a governor, general or senior law enforcement leader","plain":"A governor, a general or a top police leader breaks with the federal government in public","module":"homeland","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["domestic-instability"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"guard_over_objection","words":"National Guard deployed over a governor's objection","plain":"The National Guard deploys in a state over its governor's objection","module":"homeland","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["domestic-instability"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"tfr_state_capital","words":"TFR over a state capital","plain":"A new security flight restriction over a state capital","module":"sky","kind":"event","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"The FAA flight restrictions feed has not run yet.","note":"No FAA flight restriction archive was collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["domestic-instability","election-disruption"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"election_psa","words":"CISA or FBI election PSA","plain":"CISA or the FBI warns the public about a threat to an election","module":"homeland","kind":"any","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"CISA election advisory: the CISA advisories feed has not run yet. FBI warning, marked by an editor: needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"No history of CISA advisories was collected, and the editor part needs an editor mark.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["election-disruption"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"election_office_advisories","words":"election-office advisories in 3 or more states","plain":"Election offices in 3 or more states post warnings","module":"homeland","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"An editor sign, and no election-office advisories were collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["election-disruption"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"certified_market_swing","words":"Kalshi or Polymarket odds swing over 15 points on a certified-result market","plain":"Betting odds on a certified election result swing 15 points or more in a day","module":"pulse","kind":"metric","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"No readings yet.","note":"No market on a certified election result was collected for any window, and no Kalshi history.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["election-disruption"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"us_protest_over_baseline","words":"GDELT US protest events over baseline","plain":"Far more protest news in the US than normal","module":"pulse","kind":"metric","state":"LIT","why":"Protest news in the US: far above normal twice in a row, in the last 24 hours.","note":null,"confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"One source, graded C3.","fetched_at":"2026-07-24T17:45:00.000Z","scenarios":["election-disruption"],"findings":[{"key":"country:US","label":"Protest news in the US","measure":"z","value":3.8728105033183757,"bar":3,"lit":true,"ts":"2026-07-24T17:30:00.000Z"}],"inputs":[{"type":"reading","db":"pulse","metric":"gdelt_country_protest","key":"country:US","ts":"2026-07-24T17:15:00.000Z","value":9,"z":3.1920118118786234,"baseline":{"n":45,"mean":2.3320083215123635,"median":2,"mad":1,"method":"poisson_v1"},"source":"gdelt","source_url":"https://data.gdeltproject.org/gdeltv2/20260724171500.export.CSV.zip","fetched_at":"2026-07-24T17:30:00.000Z","raw_key":"20260724171500.export.CSV.zip"},{"type":"reading","db":"pulse","metric":"gdelt_country_protest","key":"country:US","ts":"2026-07-24T17:30:00.000Z","value":11,"z":3.8728105033183757,"baseline":{"n":45,"mean":2.4615391807566214,"median":2,"mad":1,"method":"poisson_v1"},"source":"gdelt","source_url":"https://data.gdeltproject.org/gdeltv2/20260724173000.export.CSV.zip","fetched_at":"2026-07-24T17:45:00.000Z","raw_key":"20260724173000.export.CSV.zip"}]},{"sign_id":"etf_shock","words":"Defense or energy ETF move over 2 robust-z in a day","plain":"Defense or energy funds move far more than normal in a day","module":"money","kind":"metric","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"No readings yet.","note":"Fund prices need the owner's price key. Running prepare again with it can fill this sign.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["war-market-shock"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"money_cluster","words":"Follow the Money cluster alert","plain":"Three or more public filers report buying or selling the same watched stock in the same week","module":"money","kind":"alert","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"The House disclosure feed or the SEC Form 4 feed has not run yet.","note":"Follow the Money timing flags are not replayed in the backtest.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["war-market-shock"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"vix_over_baseline","words":"VIX over baseline","plain":"Stock market fear far above normal","module":"money","kind":"metric","state":"NOT LIT","why":"Within the normal range for this time of week.","note":null,"confidence":"MODERATE","confidence_reason":"One source graded B2 or better.","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T04:00:00.000Z","scenarios":["war-market-shock"],"findings":[{"key":"VIXCLS","label":"Market fear (the VIX)","measure":"z","value":0.5407629310344825,"bar":3,"lit":false,"ts":"2026-07-24T00:00:00.000Z"}],"inputs":[{"type":"reading","db":"core","metric":"vix","key":"VIXCLS","ts":"2026-07-24T00:00:00.000Z","value":18.58,"z":0.5407629310344825,"baseline":{"n":134,"mean":18.38941119558251,"median":17.65,"mad":1.1600000000000001,"method":"robust_z_v1"},"source":"fred","source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=VIXCLS","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T04:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"vixcls.csv"}]},{"sign_id":"sanctions_over_baseline","words":"sanctions adds over baseline","plain":"Far more sanctions added than normal","module":"pulse","kind":"metric","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"No readings yet.","note":"No history of the OFAC sanctions list was collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["war-market-shock"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]}],"series":[{"db":"pulse","metric":"gdelt_country_protest","key":"country:US","source":"gdelt","label":null,"tags":[],"readings_known":5544,"first_ts":"2026-05-28T23:00:00.000Z","latest":{"ts":"2026-07-25T16:45:00.000Z","value":1,"source_url":"https://data.gdeltproject.org/gdeltv2/20260725164500.export.CSV.zip","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T17:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"20260725164500.export.CSV.zip"},"baseline":{"as_of":"2026-07-25T07:00:00.000Z","pool":"slot","n":40,"warm":true}},{"db":"core","metric":"vix","key":"VIXCLS","source":"fred","label":null,"tags":[],"readings_known":134,"first_ts":"2026-01-19T00:00:00.000Z","latest":{"ts":"2026-07-24T00:00:00.000Z","value":18.58,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=VIXCLS","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T04:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"vixcls.csv"},"baseline":{"as_of":"2026-07-25T07:00:00.000Z","pool":"all_days","n":134,"warm":true}},{"db":"core","metric":"oil_wti","key":"DCOILWTICO","source":"fred","label":null,"tags":[],"readings_known":129,"first_ts":"2026-01-20T00:00:00.000Z","latest":{"ts":"2026-07-24T00:00:00.000Z","value":91.74,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=DCOILWTICO","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T04:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"dcoilwtico.csv"},"baseline":null},{"db":"core","metric":"kev_adds","key":"US","source":"cisa_kev","label":null,"tags":[],"readings_known":189,"first_ts":"2026-01-17T00:00:00.000Z","latest":{"ts":"2026-07-24T00:00:00.000Z","value":0,"source_url":"https://www.cisa.gov/sites/default/files/feeds/known_exploited_vulnerabilities.json","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T04:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"kev.json"},"baseline":{"as_of":"2026-07-25T07:00:00.000Z","pool":"all_days","n":189,"warm":true}}],"events":[{"source":"ioda","known":3}],"sources":[{"source":"ioda","last_ok_at":"2026-07-25T17:00:00.000Z","status":"ok","source_url":"https://api.ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu/v2/outages/alerts?from=1784851200&until=1785196800&entityType=region&relatedTo=country%2FUS&limit=5000","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T17:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"ioda-us-regions-20260724.json"}]},{"evaluate_at":"2026-07-26T17:00:00.000Z","local_time":"2026-07-26T12:00","zone":"America/Chicago","baseline_as_of":"2026-07-26T07:00:00.000Z","status_line":{"evaluated_at":"2026-07-26T17:00:00.000Z","status":"NORMAL","rule_status":"NORMAL","held":false,"sentence":"No scenario has enough signs lit.","rule":"none","produced_by":{"alerts":[],"scenarios":[]},"version":"replay-1+692c1e40db38971c","source_url":"data/backtest/results.json","fetched_at":"2026-07-26T17:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"results.json"},"scenarios":[{"scenario_id":"us-strike-abroad","name":"US military strike abroad","lit":0,"not_lit":0,"not_evaluated":7,"total":7,"modules_lit":[],"counted":false,"reaches":"NORMAL","contribution":"NORMAL","elevated_at":4,"mayday_at":6,"weight_lit":0,"weight_total":7,"why":"0 of 7 signs lit. 7 not evaluated.","gaps":["Classified movements and orders.","Aircraft that fly without ADS-B or with blocked positions.","Encrypted communications.","Anything that is not on a public feed.","Food places near the Pentagon are at MAYDAY: not enough data in the last hour.","Food places near the White House are at MAYDAY: not enough data in the last hour.","Far more tanker planes than normal over one region: no readings yet.","An airborne command post flying at an unusual hour: no readings yet.","Betting odds on a US strike up 15 points or more in a day: no readings yet.","News about the target country turns far darker than normal: no readings yet.","A new security flight restriction over Washington, or executive jets flying far more than normal: security flight restriction over Washington: the FAA flight restrictions feed has not run yet. Executive jets: no readings yet."],"signs":[{"sign_id":"pentagon_ring","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"white_house_ring","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"tanker_surge","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"command_aircraft_offhours","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"strike_market_jump","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"target_tone_drop","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"dc_tfr_or_exec_aircraft","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1}],"source_url":"data/backtest/results.json","fetched_at":"2026-07-26T17:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"results.json"},{"scenario_id":"great-power-escalation","name":"Great-power escalation","lit":0,"not_lit":1,"not_evaluated":6,"total":7,"modules_lit":[],"counted":false,"reaches":"NORMAL","contribution":"NORMAL","elevated_at":3,"mayday_at":5,"weight_lit":0,"weight_total":7,"why":"0 of 7 signs lit. 6 not evaluated.","gaps":["Submarine positions.","Nuclear alert levels.","Diplomatic channels.","UKMTO warnings, Joint War Committee lists and UN Security Council sessions until an editor marks them.","Two credible outlets report nuclear bombers moved to other bases, or more submarines at sea: needs an editor. No mark yet.","An airborne command post flying at an unusual hour: no readings yet.","The State Department orders staff out of a country, or tells Americans not to travel to a G20 country: the State Department travel advisories feed has not run yet.","A warning to ships in a major strait: nGA navigational warning: the NGA navigational warnings feed has not run yet. UKMTO warning, marked by an editor: needs an editor. No mark yet.","Marine insurers add a sea area to their war risk list: needs an editor. No mark yet.","The UN Security Council holds an emergency session: needs an editor. No mark yet."],"signs":[{"sign_id":"bomber_sub_reports","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"command_aircraft_offhours","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"state_departure_or_level4","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"strait_warning","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"jwc_listed_area","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"oil_jump","state":"NOT LIT","weight":1},{"sign_id":"unsc_emergency","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1}],"source_url":"data/backtest/results.json","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T04:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"results.json"},{"scenario_id":"cyber-us-infrastructure","name":"Major cyber event on US infrastructure","lit":0,"not_lit":2,"not_evaluated":4,"total":6,"modules_lit":[],"counted":false,"reaches":"NORMAL","contribution":"NORMAL","elevated_at":3,"mayday_at":5,"weight_lit":0,"weight_total":6,"why":"0 of 6 signs lit. 4 not evaluated.","gaps":["Incidents not yet disclosed.","Classified attribution.","Private network telemetry.","Cloudflare Radar data until an editor marks it.","CISA gives federal agencies an emergency order about a threat: the CISA advisories feed has not run yet.","Far more US ransomware victims posted than normal: no readings yet.","Cloudflare reports an outage or an attack spike in a US region: needs an editor. No mark yet.","Food places near Fort Meade are at MAYDAY: not enough data in the last hour."],"signs":[{"sign_id":"cisa_emergency_directive","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"kev_over_baseline","state":"NOT LIT","weight":1},{"sign_id":"ransomware_us_over_baseline","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"radar_us_anomaly","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"ioda_us_state_outage","state":"NOT LIT","weight":1},{"sign_id":"fort_meade_ring","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1}],"source_url":"data/backtest/results.json","fetched_at":"2026-07-26T17:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"results.json"},{"scenario_id":"domestic-instability","name":"Domestic instability","lit":0,"not_lit":0,"not_evaluated":6,"total":6,"modules_lit":[],"counted":false,"reaches":"NORMAL","contribution":"NORMAL","elevated_at":3,"mayday_at":5,"weight_lit":0,"weight_total":6,"why":"0 of 6 signs lit. 6 not evaluated.","gaps":["ACLED data until its keys exist.","Threats that never become a public charge.","Private talks between officials.","More threats or attacks on officials and judges than normal: needs an editor. No mark yet.","More armed demonstrations than normal: needs an editor. No mark yet.","A state or an official refuses to certify a result or obey a court order: needs an editor. No mark yet.","A governor, a general or a top police leader breaks with the federal government in public: needs an editor. No mark yet.","The National Guard deploys in a state over its governor's objection: needs an editor. No mark yet.","A new security flight restriction over a state capital: the FAA flight restrictions feed has not run yet."],"signs":[{"sign_id":"threats_on_officials","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"armed_demonstrations","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"refusal_to_certify","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"public_break","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"guard_over_objection","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"tfr_state_capital","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1}],"source_url":"data/backtest/results.json","fetched_at":"2026-07-26T17:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"results.json"},{"scenario_id":"election-disruption","name":"Election disruption","lit":0,"not_lit":1,"not_evaluated":4,"total":5,"modules_lit":[],"counted":false,"reaches":"NORMAL","contribution":"NORMAL","elevated_at":3,"mayday_at":4,"weight_lit":0,"weight_total":5,"why":"0 of 5 signs lit. 4 not evaluated.","gaps":["State election office notices until an editor marks them.","FBI announcements until an editor marks them.","Private threats to election workers.","CISA or the FBI warns the public about a threat to an election: cISA election advisory: the CISA advisories feed has not run yet. FBI warning, marked by an editor: needs an editor. No mark yet.","Election offices in 3 or more states post warnings: needs an editor. No mark yet.","Betting odds on a certified election result swing 15 points or more in a day: no readings yet.","A new security flight restriction over a state capital: the FAA flight restrictions feed has not run yet."],"signs":[{"sign_id":"election_psa","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"election_office_advisories","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"certified_market_swing","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"us_protest_over_baseline","state":"NOT LIT","weight":1},{"sign_id":"tfr_state_capital","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1}],"source_url":"data/backtest/results.json","fetched_at":"2026-07-26T17:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"results.json"},{"scenario_id":"war-market-shock","name":"War-driven market shock","lit":0,"not_lit":1,"not_evaluated":4,"total":5,"modules_lit":[],"counted":false,"reaches":"NORMAL","contribution":"NORMAL","elevated_at":3,"mayday_at":4,"weight_lit":0,"weight_total":5,"why":"0 of 5 signs lit. 4 not evaluated.","gaps":["Trades not filed yet: members of Congress report up to 45 days late.","Private and off-exchange trading.","Joint War Committee lists until an editor marks them.","Defense or energy funds move far more than normal in a day: no readings yet.","Three or more public filers report buying or selling the same watched stock in the same week: the House disclosure feed or the SEC Form 4 feed has not run yet.","Marine insurers add a sea area to their war risk list: needs an editor. No mark yet.","Far more sanctions added than normal: no readings yet."],"signs":[{"sign_id":"etf_shock","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"money_cluster","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"vix_over_baseline","state":"NOT LIT","weight":1},{"sign_id":"jwc_listed_area","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"sanctions_over_baseline","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1}],"source_url":"data/backtest/results.json","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T04:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"results.json"}],"signs":[{"sign_id":"pentagon_ring","words":"Pentagon ring MAYDAY","plain":"Food places near the Pentagon are at MAYDAY","module":"mayday","kind":"alert","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Not enough data in the last hour.","note":"The Mayday Index has no history before launch.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["us-strike-abroad"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"white_house_ring","words":"White House ring MAYDAY","plain":"Food places near the White House are at MAYDAY","module":"mayday","kind":"alert","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Not enough data in the last hour.","note":"The Mayday Index has no history before launch.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["us-strike-abroad"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"tanker_surge","words":"tanker surge over a region","plain":"Far more tanker planes than normal over one region","module":"sky","kind":"metric","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"No readings yet.","note":"ADS-B archives run to gigabytes a day, so no flight history was collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["us-strike-abroad"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"command_aircraft_offhours","words":"E-4B or E-6B airborne off-hours","plain":"An airborne command post flying at an unusual hour","module":"sky","kind":"metric","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"No readings yet.","note":"ADS-B archives run to gigabytes a day, so no flight history was collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["us-strike-abroad","great-power-escalation"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"strike_market_jump","words":"Kalshi or Polymarket strike market up 15 points in 24 h","plain":"Betting odds on a US strike up 15 points or more in a day","module":"pulse","kind":"metric","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"No readings yet.","note":"No strike market was found that traded that weekend, so the strike market sign has no series and no country is a strike target for the tone sign. Both are NOT EVALUATED.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["us-strike-abroad"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"target_tone_drop","words":"GDELT tone drop for the target country","plain":"News about the target country turns far darker than normal","module":"pulse","kind":"metric","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"No readings yet.","note":"No strike market was found that traded that weekend, so the strike market sign has no series and no country is a strike target for the tone sign. Both are NOT EVALUATED.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["us-strike-abroad"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"dc_tfr_or_exec_aircraft","words":"DC TFR or executive aircraft moving","plain":"A new security flight restriction over Washington, or executive jets flying far more than normal","module":"sky","kind":"any","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Security flight restriction over Washington: the FAA flight restrictions feed has not run yet. Executive jets: no readings yet.","note":"No FAA flight restriction archive and no flight history were collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["us-strike-abroad"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"bomber_sub_reports","words":"Nuclear-capable bombers dispersed or a submarine surge, reported by two credible outlets","plain":"Two credible outlets report nuclear bombers moved to other bases, or more submarines at sea","module":"sky","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["great-power-escalation"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"state_departure_or_level4","words":"State Department ordered departure or Level 4 for a G20 country","plain":"The State Department orders staff out of a country, or tells Americans not to travel to a G20 country","module":"pulse","kind":"event","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"The State Department travel advisories feed has not run yet.","note":"No history of State Department travel advisories was collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["great-power-escalation"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"strait_warning","words":"NAVAREA or UKMTO warning in a major strait","plain":"A warning to ships in a major strait","module":"sky","kind":"any","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"NGA navigational warning: the NGA navigational warnings feed has not run yet. UKMTO warning, marked by an editor: needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"No history of NGA warnings to ships was collected, and the editor part needs an editor mark.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["great-power-escalation"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"jwc_listed_area","words":"Joint War Committee adds a listed area","plain":"Marine insurers add a sea area to their war risk list","module":"money","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"An editor sign, and no Joint War Committee lists were collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["great-power-escalation","war-market-shock"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"oil_jump","words":"oil up 8% or more in a day","plain":"Oil prices up 8% or more in a day","module":"money","kind":"metric","state":"NOT LIT","why":"No move of 8% or more from the day before.","note":null,"confidence":"MODERATE","confidence_reason":"One source graded B2 or better.","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T04:00:00.000Z","scenarios":["great-power-escalation"],"findings":[{"key":"DCOILWTICO","label":"Oil","measure":"change","value":-1.439622,"bar":8,"lit":false,"ts":"2026-07-24T00:00:00.000Z"}],"inputs":[{"type":"reading","db":"core","metric":"oil_wti","key":"DCOILWTICO","ts":"2026-07-23T00:00:00.000Z","value":93.08,"z":null,"baseline":null,"source":"fred","source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=DCOILWTICO","fetched_at":"2026-07-24T04:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"dcoilwtico.csv"},{"type":"reading","db":"core","metric":"oil_wti","key":"DCOILWTICO","ts":"2026-07-24T00:00:00.000Z","value":91.74,"z":null,"baseline":null,"source":"fred","source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=DCOILWTICO","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T04:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"dcoilwtico.csv"}]},{"sign_id":"unsc_emergency","words":"emergency UN Security Council session","plain":"The UN Security Council holds an emergency session","module":"pulse","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["great-power-escalation"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"cisa_emergency_directive","words":"New CISA emergency directive","plain":"CISA gives federal agencies an emergency order about a threat","module":"homeland","kind":"event","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"The CISA advisories feed has not run yet.","note":"No history of CISA advisories was collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["cyber-us-infrastructure"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"kev_over_baseline","words":"KEV adds over baseline","plain":"Far more actively exploited flaws than normal added to CISA's list","module":"homeland","kind":"metric","state":"NOT LIT","why":"Within the normal range for this time of week.","note":null,"confidence":"MODERATE","confidence_reason":"One source graded B2 or better.","fetched_at":"2026-07-26T04:00:00.000Z","scenarios":["cyber-us-infrastructure"],"findings":[{"key":"US","label":"Flaws added to CISA's list","measure":"z","value":-8,"bar":3,"lit":false,"ts":"2026-07-25T00:00:00.000Z"}],"inputs":[{"type":"reading","db":"core","metric":"kev_adds","key":"US","ts":"2026-07-25T00:00:00.000Z","value":0,"z":-8,"baseline":{"n":190,"mean":0.8505102115657064,"median":0,"mad":0,"method":"poisson_v1"},"source":"cisa_kev","source_url":"https://www.cisa.gov/sites/default/files/feeds/known_exploited_vulnerabilities.json","fetched_at":"2026-07-26T04:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"kev.json"}]},{"sign_id":"ransomware_us_over_baseline","words":"ransomware.live US victims over baseline","plain":"Far more US ransomware victims posted than normal","module":"homeland","kind":"metric","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"No readings yet.","note":"ransomware.live history now needs a paid key.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["cyber-us-infrastructure"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"radar_us_anomaly","words":"Cloudflare Radar outage or attack anomaly for a US region","plain":"Cloudflare reports an outage or an attack spike in a US region","module":"pulse","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["cyber-us-infrastructure"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"ioda_us_state_outage","words":"IODA internet outage in a US state","plain":"A large internet outage in a US state","module":"pulse","kind":"event","state":"NOT LIT","why":"None in the last 24 hours.","note":null,"confidence":"MODERATE","confidence_reason":"One source graded B2 or better.","fetched_at":"2026-07-26T17:00:00.000Z","scenarios":["cyber-us-infrastructure"],"findings":[],"inputs":[{"type":"source_run","source":"ioda","status":"ok","last_ok_at":"2026-07-26T17:00:00.000Z","source_url":"https://api.ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu/v2/outages/alerts?from=1784851200&until=1785196800&entityType=region&relatedTo=country%2FUS&limit=5000","fetched_at":"2026-07-26T17:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"ioda-us-regions-20260724.json"}]},{"sign_id":"fort_meade_ring","words":"Fort Meade ring MAYDAY","plain":"Food places near Fort Meade are at MAYDAY","module":"mayday","kind":"alert","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Not enough data in the last hour.","note":"The Mayday Index has no history before launch.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["cyber-us-infrastructure"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"threats_on_officials","words":"Threats or attacks on officials and judges over baseline (ACLED, DOJ charges)","plain":"More threats or attacks on officials and judges than normal","module":"homeland","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"An editor sign, and no ACLED history was collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["domestic-instability"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"armed_demonstrations","words":"armed demonstrations over baseline (ACLED)","plain":"More armed demonstrations than normal","module":"pulse","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"An editor sign, and no ACLED history was collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["domestic-instability"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"refusal_to_certify","words":"a state or official refusing to certify a result or obey a court order","plain":"A state or an official refuses to certify a result or obey a court order","module":"homeland","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["domestic-instability"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"public_break","words":"a public break with the federal government by a governor, general or senior law enforcement leader","plain":"A governor, a general or a top police leader breaks with the federal government in public","module":"homeland","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["domestic-instability"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"guard_over_objection","words":"National Guard deployed over a governor's objection","plain":"The National Guard deploys in a state over its governor's objection","module":"homeland","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["domestic-instability"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"tfr_state_capital","words":"TFR over a state capital","plain":"A new security flight restriction over a state capital","module":"sky","kind":"event","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"The FAA flight restrictions feed has not run yet.","note":"No FAA flight restriction archive was collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["domestic-instability","election-disruption"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"election_psa","words":"CISA or FBI election PSA","plain":"CISA or the FBI warns the public about a threat to an election","module":"homeland","kind":"any","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"CISA election advisory: the CISA advisories feed has not run yet. FBI warning, marked by an editor: needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"No history of CISA advisories was collected, and the editor part needs an editor mark.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["election-disruption"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"election_office_advisories","words":"election-office advisories in 3 or more states","plain":"Election offices in 3 or more states post warnings","module":"homeland","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"An editor sign, and no election-office advisories were collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["election-disruption"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"certified_market_swing","words":"Kalshi or Polymarket odds swing over 15 points on a certified-result market","plain":"Betting odds on a certified election result swing 15 points or more in a day","module":"pulse","kind":"metric","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"No readings yet.","note":"No market on a certified election result was collected for any window, and no Kalshi history.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["election-disruption"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"us_protest_over_baseline","words":"GDELT US protest events over baseline","plain":"Far more protest news in the US than normal","module":"pulse","kind":"metric","state":"NOT LIT","why":"Within the normal range for this time of week.","note":null,"confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"One source, graded C3.","fetched_at":"2026-07-26T17:00:00.000Z","scenarios":["election-disruption"],"findings":[{"key":"country:US","label":"Protest news in the US","measure":"z","value":-8,"bar":3,"lit":false,"ts":"2026-07-26T16:45:00.000Z"}],"inputs":[{"type":"reading","db":"pulse","metric":"gdelt_country_protest","key":"country:US","ts":"2026-07-26T16:45:00.000Z","value":0,"z":-8,"baseline":{"n":40,"mean":1.24767171036381,"median":1,"mad":0.5,"method":"poisson_v1"},"source":"gdelt","source_url":"https://data.gdeltproject.org/gdeltv2/20260726164500.export.CSV.zip","fetched_at":"2026-07-26T17:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"20260726164500.export.CSV.zip"}]},{"sign_id":"etf_shock","words":"Defense or energy ETF move over 2 robust-z in a day","plain":"Defense or energy funds move far more than normal in a day","module":"money","kind":"metric","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"No readings yet.","note":"Fund prices need the owner's price key. Running prepare again with it can fill this sign.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["war-market-shock"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"money_cluster","words":"Follow the Money cluster alert","plain":"Three or more public filers report buying or selling the same watched stock in the same week","module":"money","kind":"alert","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"The House disclosure feed or the SEC Form 4 feed has not run yet.","note":"Follow the Money timing flags are not replayed in the backtest.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["war-market-shock"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"vix_over_baseline","words":"VIX over baseline","plain":"Stock market fear far above normal","module":"money","kind":"metric","state":"NOT LIT","why":"Within the normal range for this time of week.","note":null,"confidence":"MODERATE","confidence_reason":"One source graded B2 or better.","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T04:00:00.000Z","scenarios":["war-market-shock"],"findings":[{"key":"VIXCLS","label":"Market fear (the VIX)","measure":"z","value":0.5407629310344825,"bar":3,"lit":false,"ts":"2026-07-24T00:00:00.000Z"}],"inputs":[{"type":"reading","db":"core","metric":"vix","key":"VIXCLS","ts":"2026-07-24T00:00:00.000Z","value":18.58,"z":0.5407629310344825,"baseline":{"n":134,"mean":18.3894111955825,"median":17.65,"mad":1.1600000000000001,"method":"robust_z_v1"},"source":"fred","source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=VIXCLS","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T04:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"vixcls.csv"}]},{"sign_id":"sanctions_over_baseline","words":"sanctions adds over baseline","plain":"Far more sanctions added than normal","module":"pulse","kind":"metric","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"No readings yet.","note":"No history of the OFAC sanctions list was collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["war-market-shock"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]}],"series":[{"db":"pulse","metric":"gdelt_country_protest","key":"country:US","source":"gdelt","label":null,"tags":[],"readings_known":5640,"first_ts":"2026-05-28T23:00:00.000Z","latest":{"ts":"2026-07-26T16:45:00.000Z","value":0,"source_url":"https://data.gdeltproject.org/gdeltv2/20260726164500.export.CSV.zip","fetched_at":"2026-07-26T17:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"20260726164500.export.CSV.zip"},"baseline":{"as_of":"2026-07-26T07:00:00.000Z","pool":"slot","n":40,"warm":true}},{"db":"core","metric":"vix","key":"VIXCLS","source":"fred","label":null,"tags":[],"readings_known":134,"first_ts":"2026-01-19T00:00:00.000Z","latest":{"ts":"2026-07-24T00:00:00.000Z","value":18.58,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=VIXCLS","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T04:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"vixcls.csv"},"baseline":{"as_of":"2026-07-26T07:00:00.000Z","pool":"all_days","n":134,"warm":true}},{"db":"core","metric":"oil_wti","key":"DCOILWTICO","source":"fred","label":null,"tags":[],"readings_known":129,"first_ts":"2026-01-20T00:00:00.000Z","latest":{"ts":"2026-07-24T00:00:00.000Z","value":91.74,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=DCOILWTICO","fetched_at":"2026-07-25T04:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"dcoilwtico.csv"},"baseline":null},{"db":"core","metric":"kev_adds","key":"US","source":"cisa_kev","label":null,"tags":[],"readings_known":190,"first_ts":"2026-01-17T00:00:00.000Z","latest":{"ts":"2026-07-25T00:00:00.000Z","value":0,"source_url":"https://www.cisa.gov/sites/default/files/feeds/known_exploited_vulnerabilities.json","fetched_at":"2026-07-26T04:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"kev.json"},"baseline":{"as_of":"2026-07-26T07:00:00.000Z","pool":"all_days","n":190,"warm":true}}],"events":[{"source":"ioda","known":3}],"sources":[{"source":"ioda","last_ok_at":"2026-07-26T17:00:00.000Z","status":"ok","source_url":"https://api.ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu/v2/outages/alerts?from=1784851200&until=1785196800&entityType=region&relatedTo=country%2FUS&limit=5000","fetched_at":"2026-07-26T17:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"ioda-us-regions-20260724.json"}]}],"summary":{"outcome":"blind","highest_status":"NORMAL","scenario_reached":"NORMAL","evaluable_signs":2,"total_signs":6,"signs_needed":3,"lit":[{"sign_id":"ioda_us_state_outage","plain":"A large internet outage in a US state","scenarios":["cyber-us-infrastructure"],"at":["2026-07-24T23:00:00.000Z"]},{"sign_id":"us_protest_over_baseline","plain":"Far more protest news in the US than normal","scenarios":["election-disruption"],"at":["2026-07-24T23:00:00.000Z","2026-07-25T17:00:00.000Z"]}],"words":["Minnesota water systems: the status line read NORMAL at all 3 times checked.","Major cyber event on US infrastructure reached NORMAL, with at most 1 of its 6 signs lit. 2 of them had data. ELEVATED takes 3 lit, from two modules.","The backtest could not have raised it: too few of its signs have free history.","Lit: a large internet outage in a US state (July 24, 2026, 6 pm Central) and far more protest news in the US than normal (July 24, 2026, 6 pm Central and July 25, 2026, noon Central)."]}},{"id":"Q","name":"Quiet week","event":"A week with no major event, to show the site stays quiet. 2026 had an ongoing US-Iran war with pauses, so no 2026 week is quiet, and the editor chose this one from November 2025. The owner confirms it or swaps it.","zone":"America/New_York","scenario_of_interest":null,"expect":"quiet","provisional":true,"chosen_by":"editor","label":"provisional, chosen by the editor","gaps":[{"sources":["polymarket","gdelt"],"signs":["strike_market_jump","target_tone_drop"],"from":null,"to":null,"reason":"No strike market was found that traded that week, so the strike market sign has no series and no country is a strike target for the tone sign. Both are NOT EVALUATED."},{"sources":[],"signs":[],"from":null,"to":null,"reason":"Staying quiet is easy when most signs cannot be evaluated: this week shows that the signs with history stay unlit, not that the whole site would."}],"evaluations":[{"evaluate_at":"2025-11-17T17:00:00.000Z","local_time":"2025-11-17T12:00","zone":"America/New_York","baseline_as_of":"2025-11-17T07:00:00.000Z","status_line":{"evaluated_at":"2025-11-17T17:00:00.000Z","status":"NORMAL","rule_status":"NORMAL","held":false,"sentence":"No scenario has enough signs lit.","rule":"none","produced_by":{"alerts":[],"scenarios":[]},"version":"replay-1+692c1e40db38971c","source_url":"data/backtest/results.json","fetched_at":"2025-11-17T16:50:00.000Z","raw_key":"results.json"},"scenarios":[{"scenario_id":"us-strike-abroad","name":"US military strike abroad","lit":0,"not_lit":0,"not_evaluated":7,"total":7,"modules_lit":[],"counted":false,"reaches":"NORMAL","contribution":"NORMAL","elevated_at":4,"mayday_at":6,"weight_lit":0,"weight_total":7,"why":"0 of 7 signs lit. 7 not evaluated.","gaps":["Classified movements and orders.","Aircraft that fly without ADS-B or with blocked positions.","Encrypted communications.","Anything that is not on a public feed.","Food places near the Pentagon are at MAYDAY: not enough data in the last hour.","Food places near the White House are at MAYDAY: not enough data in the last hour.","Far more tanker planes than normal over one region: no readings yet.","An airborne command post flying at an unusual hour: no readings yet.","Betting odds on a US strike up 15 points or more in a day: no readings yet.","News about the target country turns far darker than normal: no readings yet.","A new security flight restriction over Washington, or executive jets flying far more than normal: security flight restriction over Washington: the FAA flight restrictions feed has not run yet. Executive jets: no readings yet."],"signs":[{"sign_id":"pentagon_ring","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"white_house_ring","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"tanker_surge","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"command_aircraft_offhours","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"strike_market_jump","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"target_tone_drop","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"dc_tfr_or_exec_aircraft","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1}],"source_url":"data/backtest/results.json","fetched_at":"2025-11-17T17:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"results.json"},{"scenario_id":"great-power-escalation","name":"Great-power escalation","lit":0,"not_lit":1,"not_evaluated":6,"total":7,"modules_lit":[],"counted":false,"reaches":"NORMAL","contribution":"NORMAL","elevated_at":3,"mayday_at":5,"weight_lit":0,"weight_total":7,"why":"0 of 7 signs lit. 6 not evaluated.","gaps":["Submarine positions.","Nuclear alert levels.","Diplomatic channels.","UKMTO warnings, Joint War Committee lists and UN Security Council sessions until an editor marks them.","Two credible outlets report nuclear bombers moved to other bases, or more submarines at sea: needs an editor. No mark yet.","An airborne command post flying at an unusual hour: no readings yet.","The State Department orders staff out of a country, or tells Americans not to travel to a G20 country: the State Department travel advisories feed has not run yet.","A warning to ships in a major strait: nGA navigational warning: the NGA navigational warnings feed has not run yet. UKMTO warning, marked by an editor: needs an editor. No mark yet.","Marine insurers add a sea area to their war risk list: needs an editor. No mark yet.","The UN Security Council holds an emergency session: needs an editor. No mark yet."],"signs":[{"sign_id":"bomber_sub_reports","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"command_aircraft_offhours","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"state_departure_or_level4","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"strait_warning","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"jwc_listed_area","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"oil_jump","state":"NOT LIT","weight":1},{"sign_id":"unsc_emergency","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1}],"source_url":"data/backtest/results.json","fetched_at":"2025-11-15T05:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"results.json"},{"scenario_id":"cyber-us-infrastructure","name":"Major cyber event on US infrastructure","lit":1,"not_lit":1,"not_evaluated":4,"total":6,"modules_lit":["pulse"],"counted":false,"reaches":"NORMAL","contribution":"NORMAL","elevated_at":3,"mayday_at":5,"weight_lit":1,"weight_total":6,"why":"1 of 6 signs lit, from 1 module. 4 not evaluated.","gaps":["Incidents not yet disclosed.","Classified attribution.","Private network telemetry.","Cloudflare Radar data until an editor marks it.","CISA gives federal agencies an emergency order about a threat: the CISA advisories feed has not run yet.","Far more US ransomware victims posted than normal: no readings yet.","Cloudflare reports an outage or an attack spike in a US region: needs an editor. No mark yet.","Food places near Fort Meade are at MAYDAY: not enough data in the last hour."],"signs":[{"sign_id":"cisa_emergency_directive","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"kev_over_baseline","state":"NOT LIT","weight":1},{"sign_id":"ransomware_us_over_baseline","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"radar_us_anomaly","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"ioda_us_state_outage","state":"LIT","weight":1},{"sign_id":"fort_meade_ring","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1}],"source_url":"data/backtest/results.json","fetched_at":"2025-11-17T16:50:00.000Z","raw_key":"results.json"},{"scenario_id":"domestic-instability","name":"Domestic instability","lit":0,"not_lit":0,"not_evaluated":6,"total":6,"modules_lit":[],"counted":false,"reaches":"NORMAL","contribution":"NORMAL","elevated_at":3,"mayday_at":5,"weight_lit":0,"weight_total":6,"why":"0 of 6 signs lit. 6 not evaluated.","gaps":["ACLED data until its keys exist.","Threats that never become a public charge.","Private talks between officials.","More threats or attacks on officials and judges than normal: needs an editor. No mark yet.","More armed demonstrations than normal: needs an editor. No mark yet.","A state or an official refuses to certify a result or obey a court order: needs an editor. No mark yet.","A governor, a general or a top police leader breaks with the federal government in public: needs an editor. No mark yet.","The National Guard deploys in a state over its governor's objection: needs an editor. No mark yet.","A new security flight restriction over a state capital: the FAA flight restrictions feed has not run yet."],"signs":[{"sign_id":"threats_on_officials","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"armed_demonstrations","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"refusal_to_certify","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"public_break","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"guard_over_objection","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"tfr_state_capital","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1}],"source_url":"data/backtest/results.json","fetched_at":"2025-11-17T17:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"results.json"},{"scenario_id":"election-disruption","name":"Election disruption","lit":1,"not_lit":0,"not_evaluated":4,"total":5,"modules_lit":["pulse"],"counted":false,"reaches":"NORMAL","contribution":"NORMAL","elevated_at":3,"mayday_at":4,"weight_lit":1,"weight_total":5,"why":"1 of 5 signs lit, from 1 module. 4 not evaluated.","gaps":["State election office notices until an editor marks them.","FBI announcements until an editor marks them.","Private threats to election workers.","CISA or the FBI warns the public about a threat to an election: cISA election advisory: the CISA advisories feed has not run yet. FBI warning, marked by an editor: needs an editor. No mark yet.","Election offices in 3 or more states post warnings: needs an editor. No mark yet.","Betting odds on a certified election result swing 15 points or more in a day: no readings yet.","A new security flight restriction over a state capital: the FAA flight restrictions feed has not run yet."],"signs":[{"sign_id":"election_psa","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"election_office_advisories","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"certified_market_swing","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"us_protest_over_baseline","state":"LIT","weight":1},{"sign_id":"tfr_state_capital","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1}],"source_url":"data/backtest/results.json","fetched_at":"2025-11-17T16:30:00.000Z","raw_key":"results.json"},{"scenario_id":"war-market-shock","name":"War-driven market shock","lit":0,"not_lit":1,"not_evaluated":4,"total":5,"modules_lit":[],"counted":false,"reaches":"NORMAL","contribution":"NORMAL","elevated_at":3,"mayday_at":4,"weight_lit":0,"weight_total":5,"why":"0 of 5 signs lit. 4 not evaluated.","gaps":["Trades not filed yet: members of Congress report up to 45 days late.","Private and off-exchange trading.","Joint War Committee lists until an editor marks them.","Defense or energy funds move far more than normal in a day: no readings yet.","Three or more public filers report buying or selling the same watched stock in the same week: the House disclosure feed or the SEC Form 4 feed has not run yet.","Marine insurers add a sea area to their war risk list: needs an editor. No mark yet.","Far more sanctions added than normal: no readings yet."],"signs":[{"sign_id":"etf_shock","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"money_cluster","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"vix_over_baseline","state":"NOT LIT","weight":1},{"sign_id":"jwc_listed_area","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"sanctions_over_baseline","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1}],"source_url":"data/backtest/results.json","fetched_at":"2025-11-15T05:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"results.json"}],"signs":[{"sign_id":"pentagon_ring","words":"Pentagon ring MAYDAY","plain":"Food places near the Pentagon are at MAYDAY","module":"mayday","kind":"alert","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Not enough data in the last hour.","note":"The Mayday Index has no history before launch.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["us-strike-abroad"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"white_house_ring","words":"White House ring MAYDAY","plain":"Food places near the White House are at MAYDAY","module":"mayday","kind":"alert","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Not enough data in the last hour.","note":"The Mayday Index has no history before launch.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["us-strike-abroad"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"tanker_surge","words":"tanker surge over a region","plain":"Far more tanker planes than normal over one region","module":"sky","kind":"metric","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"No readings yet.","note":"ADS-B archives run to gigabytes a day, so no flight history was collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["us-strike-abroad"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"command_aircraft_offhours","words":"E-4B or E-6B airborne off-hours","plain":"An airborne command post flying at an unusual hour","module":"sky","kind":"metric","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"No readings yet.","note":"ADS-B archives run to gigabytes a day, so no flight history was collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["us-strike-abroad","great-power-escalation"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"strike_market_jump","words":"Kalshi or Polymarket strike market up 15 points in 24 h","plain":"Betting odds on a US strike up 15 points or more in a day","module":"pulse","kind":"metric","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"No readings yet.","note":"No strike market was found that traded that week, so the strike market sign has no series and no country is a strike target for the tone sign. Both are NOT EVALUATED.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["us-strike-abroad"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"target_tone_drop","words":"GDELT tone drop for the target country","plain":"News about the target country turns far darker than normal","module":"pulse","kind":"metric","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"No readings yet.","note":"No strike market was found that traded that week, so the strike market sign has no series and no country is a strike target for the tone sign. Both are NOT EVALUATED.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["us-strike-abroad"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"dc_tfr_or_exec_aircraft","words":"DC TFR or executive aircraft moving","plain":"A new security flight restriction over Washington, or executive jets flying far more than normal","module":"sky","kind":"any","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Security flight restriction over Washington: the FAA flight restrictions feed has not run yet. Executive jets: no readings yet.","note":"No FAA flight restriction archive and no flight history were collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["us-strike-abroad"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"bomber_sub_reports","words":"Nuclear-capable bombers dispersed or a submarine surge, reported by two credible outlets","plain":"Two credible outlets report nuclear bombers moved to other bases, or more submarines at sea","module":"sky","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["great-power-escalation"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"state_departure_or_level4","words":"State Department ordered departure or Level 4 for a G20 country","plain":"The State Department orders staff out of a country, or tells Americans not to travel to a G20 country","module":"pulse","kind":"event","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"The State Department travel advisories feed has not run yet.","note":"No history of State Department travel advisories was collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["great-power-escalation"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"strait_warning","words":"NAVAREA or UKMTO warning in a major strait","plain":"A warning to ships in a major strait","module":"sky","kind":"any","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"NGA navigational warning: the NGA navigational warnings feed has not run yet. UKMTO warning, marked by an editor: needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"No history of NGA warnings to ships was collected, and the editor part needs an editor mark.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["great-power-escalation"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"jwc_listed_area","words":"Joint War Committee adds a listed area","plain":"Marine insurers add a sea area to their war risk list","module":"money","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"An editor sign, and no Joint War Committee lists were collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["great-power-escalation","war-market-shock"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"oil_jump","words":"oil up 8% or more in a day","plain":"Oil prices up 8% or more in a day","module":"money","kind":"metric","state":"NOT LIT","why":"No move of 8% or more from the day before.","note":null,"confidence":"MODERATE","confidence_reason":"One source graded B2 or better.","fetched_at":"2025-11-15T05:00:00.000Z","scenarios":["great-power-escalation"],"findings":[{"key":"DCOILWTICO","label":"Oil","measure":"change","value":2.233792,"bar":8,"lit":false,"ts":"2025-11-14T00:00:00.000Z"}],"inputs":[{"type":"reading","db":"core","metric":"oil_wti","key":"DCOILWTICO","ts":"2025-11-13T00:00:00.000Z","value":59.54,"z":null,"baseline":null,"source":"fred","source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=DCOILWTICO","fetched_at":"2025-11-14T05:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"dcoilwtico.csv"},{"type":"reading","db":"core","metric":"oil_wti","key":"DCOILWTICO","ts":"2025-11-14T00:00:00.000Z","value":60.87,"z":null,"baseline":null,"source":"fred","source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=DCOILWTICO","fetched_at":"2025-11-15T05:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"dcoilwtico.csv"}]},{"sign_id":"unsc_emergency","words":"emergency UN Security Council session","plain":"The UN Security Council holds an emergency session","module":"pulse","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"An editor sign. 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No mark yet.","note":"An editor sign, and no ACLED history was collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["domestic-instability"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"armed_demonstrations","words":"armed demonstrations over baseline (ACLED)","plain":"More armed demonstrations than normal","module":"pulse","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"An editor sign, and no ACLED history was collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["domestic-instability"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"refusal_to_certify","words":"a state or official refusing to certify a result or obey a court order","plain":"A state or an official refuses to certify a result or obey a court order","module":"homeland","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"An editor sign. 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No mark yet.","note":"An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["domestic-instability"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"tfr_state_capital","words":"TFR over a state capital","plain":"A new security flight restriction over a state capital","module":"sky","kind":"event","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"The FAA flight restrictions feed has not run yet.","note":"No FAA flight restriction archive was collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["domestic-instability","election-disruption"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"election_psa","words":"CISA or FBI election PSA","plain":"CISA or the FBI warns the public about a threat to an election","module":"homeland","kind":"any","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"CISA election advisory: the CISA advisories feed has not run yet. FBI warning, marked by an editor: needs an editor. 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No mark yet.","note":"An editor sign, and no election-office advisories were collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["election-disruption"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"certified_market_swing","words":"Kalshi or Polymarket odds swing over 15 points on a certified-result market","plain":"Betting odds on a certified election result swing 15 points or more in a day","module":"pulse","kind":"metric","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"No readings yet.","note":"No market on a certified election result was collected for any window, and no Kalshi history.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["election-disruption"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"us_protest_over_baseline","words":"GDELT US protest events over baseline","plain":"Far more protest news in the US than normal","module":"pulse","kind":"metric","state":"LIT","why":"Protest news in the US: far above normal, in the last 24 hours.","note":null,"confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"One source, graded C3.","fetched_at":"2025-11-17T16:30:00.000Z","scenarios":["election-disruption"],"findings":[{"key":"country:US","label":"Protest news in the US","measure":"z","value":8,"bar":4,"lit":true,"ts":"2025-11-17T16:15:00.000Z"}],"inputs":[{"type":"reading","db":"pulse","metric":"gdelt_country_protest","key":"country:US","ts":"2025-11-17T16:15:00.000Z","value":41,"z":8,"baseline":{"n":40,"mean":4.416660586044663,"median":4,"mad":1.5,"method":"poisson_v1"},"source":"gdelt","source_url":"https://data.gdeltproject.org/gdeltv2/20251117161500.export.CSV.zip","fetched_at":"2025-11-17T16:30:00.000Z","raw_key":"20251117161500.export.CSV.zip"}]},{"sign_id":"etf_shock","words":"Defense or energy ETF move over 2 robust-z in a day","plain":"Defense or energy funds move far more than normal in a day","module":"money","kind":"metric","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"No readings yet.","note":"Fund prices need the owner's price key. Running prepare again with it can fill this sign.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["war-market-shock"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"money_cluster","words":"Follow the Money cluster alert","plain":"Three or more public filers report buying or selling the same watched stock in the same week","module":"money","kind":"alert","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"The House disclosure feed or the SEC Form 4 feed has not run yet.","note":"Follow the Money timing flags are not replayed in the backtest.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["war-market-shock"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"vix_over_baseline","words":"VIX over baseline","plain":"Stock market fear far above normal","module":"money","kind":"metric","state":"NOT LIT","why":"Within the normal range for this time of week.","note":null,"confidence":"MODERATE","confidence_reason":"One source graded B2 or 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unusual hour: no readings yet.","Betting odds on a US strike up 15 points or more in a day: no readings yet.","News about the target country turns far darker than normal: no readings yet.","A new security flight restriction over Washington, or executive jets flying far more than normal: security flight restriction over Washington: the FAA flight restrictions feed has not run yet. Executive jets: no readings yet."],"signs":[{"sign_id":"pentagon_ring","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"white_house_ring","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"tanker_surge","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"command_aircraft_offhours","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"strike_market_jump","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"target_tone_drop","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"dc_tfr_or_exec_aircraft","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1}],"source_url":"data/backtest/results.json","fetched_at":"2025-11-18T17:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"results.json"},{"scenario_id":"great-power-escalation","name":"Great-power escalation","lit":0,"not_lit":1,"not_evaluated":6,"total":7,"modules_lit":[],"counted":false,"reaches":"NORMAL","contribution":"NORMAL","elevated_at":3,"mayday_at":5,"weight_lit":0,"weight_total":7,"why":"0 of 7 signs lit. 6 not evaluated.","gaps":["Submarine positions.","Nuclear alert levels.","Diplomatic channels.","UKMTO warnings, Joint War Committee lists and UN Security Council sessions until an editor marks them.","Two credible outlets report nuclear bombers moved to other bases, or more submarines at sea: needs an editor. No mark yet.","An airborne command post flying at an unusual hour: no readings yet.","The State Department orders staff out of a country, or tells Americans not to travel to a G20 country: the State Department travel advisories feed has not run yet.","A warning to ships in a major strait: nGA navigational warning: the NGA navigational warnings feed has not run yet. UKMTO warning, marked by an editor: needs an editor. No mark yet.","Marine insurers add a sea area to their war risk list: needs an editor. No mark yet.","The UN Security Council holds an emergency session: needs an editor. No mark yet."],"signs":[{"sign_id":"bomber_sub_reports","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"command_aircraft_offhours","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"state_departure_or_level4","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"strait_warning","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"jwc_listed_area","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"oil_jump","state":"NOT LIT","weight":1},{"sign_id":"unsc_emergency","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1}],"source_url":"data/backtest/results.json","fetched_at":"2025-11-18T05:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"results.json"},{"scenario_id":"cyber-us-infrastructure","name":"Major cyber event on US infrastructure","lit":1,"not_lit":1,"not_evaluated":4,"total":6,"modules_lit":["pulse"],"counted":false,"reaches":"NORMAL","contribution":"NORMAL","elevated_at":3,"mayday_at":5,"weight_lit":1,"weight_total":6,"why":"1 of 6 signs lit, from 1 module. 4 not evaluated.","gaps":["Incidents not yet disclosed.","Classified attribution.","Private network telemetry.","Cloudflare Radar data until an editor marks it.","CISA gives federal agencies an emergency order about a threat: the CISA advisories feed has not run yet.","Far more US ransomware victims posted than normal: no readings yet.","Cloudflare reports an outage or an attack spike in a US region: needs an editor. No mark yet.","Food places near Fort Meade are at MAYDAY: not enough data in the last hour."],"signs":[{"sign_id":"cisa_emergency_directive","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"kev_over_baseline","state":"NOT LIT","weight":1},{"sign_id":"ransomware_us_over_baseline","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"radar_us_anomaly","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"ioda_us_state_outage","state":"LIT","weight":1},{"sign_id":"fort_meade_ring","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1}],"source_url":"data/backtest/results.json","fetched_at":"2025-11-18T15:54:00.000Z","raw_key":"results.json"},{"scenario_id":"domestic-instability","name":"Domestic instability","lit":0,"not_lit":0,"not_evaluated":6,"total":6,"modules_lit":[],"counted":false,"reaches":"NORMAL","contribution":"NORMAL","elevated_at":3,"mayday_at":5,"weight_lit":0,"weight_total":6,"why":"0 of 6 signs lit. 6 not evaluated.","gaps":["ACLED data until its keys exist.","Threats that never become a public charge.","Private talks between officials.","More threats or attacks on officials and judges than normal: needs an editor. No mark yet.","More armed demonstrations than normal: needs an editor. No mark yet.","A state or an official refuses to certify a result or obey a court order: needs an editor. No mark yet.","A governor, a general or a top police leader breaks with the federal government in public: needs an editor. No mark yet.","The National Guard deploys in a state over its governor's objection: needs an editor. No mark yet.","A new security flight restriction over a state capital: the FAA flight restrictions feed has not run yet."],"signs":[{"sign_id":"threats_on_officials","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"armed_demonstrations","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"refusal_to_certify","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"public_break","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"guard_over_objection","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"tfr_state_capital","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1}],"source_url":"data/backtest/results.json","fetched_at":"2025-11-18T17:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"results.json"},{"scenario_id":"election-disruption","name":"Election disruption","lit":0,"not_lit":1,"not_evaluated":4,"total":5,"modules_lit":[],"counted":false,"reaches":"NORMAL","contribution":"NORMAL","elevated_at":3,"mayday_at":4,"weight_lit":0,"weight_total":5,"why":"0 of 5 signs lit. 4 not evaluated.","gaps":["State election office notices until an editor marks them.","FBI announcements until an editor marks them.","Private threats to election workers.","CISA or the FBI warns the public about a threat to an election: cISA election advisory: the CISA advisories feed has not run yet. FBI warning, marked by an editor: needs an editor. No mark yet.","Election offices in 3 or more states post warnings: needs an editor. No mark yet.","Betting odds on a certified election result swing 15 points or more in a day: no readings yet.","A new security flight restriction over a state capital: the FAA flight restrictions feed has not run yet."],"signs":[{"sign_id":"election_psa","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"election_office_advisories","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"certified_market_swing","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"us_protest_over_baseline","state":"NOT LIT","weight":1},{"sign_id":"tfr_state_capital","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1}],"source_url":"data/backtest/results.json","fetched_at":"2025-11-18T17:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"results.json"},{"scenario_id":"war-market-shock","name":"War-driven market shock","lit":0,"not_lit":1,"not_evaluated":4,"total":5,"modules_lit":[],"counted":false,"reaches":"NORMAL","contribution":"NORMAL","elevated_at":3,"mayday_at":4,"weight_lit":0,"weight_total":5,"why":"0 of 5 signs lit. 4 not evaluated.","gaps":["Trades not filed yet: members of Congress report up to 45 days late.","Private and off-exchange trading.","Joint War Committee lists until an editor marks them.","Defense or energy funds move far more than normal in a day: no readings yet.","Three or more public filers report buying or selling the same watched stock in the same week: the House disclosure feed or the SEC Form 4 feed has not run yet.","Marine insurers add a sea area to their war risk list: needs an editor. No mark yet.","Far more sanctions added than normal: no readings yet."],"signs":[{"sign_id":"etf_shock","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"money_cluster","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"vix_over_baseline","state":"NOT LIT","weight":1},{"sign_id":"jwc_listed_area","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"sanctions_over_baseline","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1}],"source_url":"data/backtest/results.json","fetched_at":"2025-11-18T05:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"results.json"}],"signs":[{"sign_id":"pentagon_ring","words":"Pentagon ring MAYDAY","plain":"Food places near the Pentagon are at MAYDAY","module":"mayday","kind":"alert","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Not enough data in the last hour.","note":"The Mayday Index has no history before launch.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["us-strike-abroad"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"white_house_ring","words":"White House ring MAYDAY","plain":"Food places near the White House are at MAYDAY","module":"mayday","kind":"alert","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Not enough data in the last hour.","note":"The Mayday Index has no history before launch.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["us-strike-abroad"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"tanker_surge","words":"tanker surge over a region","plain":"Far more tanker planes than normal over one region","module":"sky","kind":"metric","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"No readings yet.","note":"ADS-B archives run to gigabytes a day, so no flight history was collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["us-strike-abroad"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"command_aircraft_offhours","words":"E-4B or E-6B airborne off-hours","plain":"An airborne command post flying at an unusual hour","module":"sky","kind":"metric","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"No readings yet.","note":"ADS-B archives run to gigabytes a day, so no flight history was collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["us-strike-abroad","great-power-escalation"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"strike_market_jump","words":"Kalshi or Polymarket strike market up 15 points in 24 h","plain":"Betting odds on a US strike up 15 points or more in a day","module":"pulse","kind":"metric","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"No readings yet.","note":"No strike market was found that traded that week, so the strike market sign has no series and no country is a strike target for the tone sign. Both are NOT EVALUATED.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["us-strike-abroad"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"target_tone_drop","words":"GDELT tone drop for the target country","plain":"News about the target country turns far darker than normal","module":"pulse","kind":"metric","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"No readings yet.","note":"No strike market was found that traded that week, so the strike market sign has no series and no country is a strike target for the tone sign. Both are NOT EVALUATED.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["us-strike-abroad"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"dc_tfr_or_exec_aircraft","words":"DC TFR or executive aircraft moving","plain":"A new security flight restriction over Washington, or executive jets flying far more than normal","module":"sky","kind":"any","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Security flight restriction over Washington: the FAA flight restrictions feed has not run yet. Executive jets: no readings yet.","note":"No FAA flight restriction archive and no flight history were collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["us-strike-abroad"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"bomber_sub_reports","words":"Nuclear-capable bombers dispersed or a submarine surge, reported by two credible outlets","plain":"Two credible outlets report nuclear bombers moved to other bases, or more submarines at sea","module":"sky","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["great-power-escalation"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"state_departure_or_level4","words":"State Department ordered departure or Level 4 for a G20 country","plain":"The State Department orders staff out of a country, or tells Americans not to travel to a G20 country","module":"pulse","kind":"event","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"The State Department travel advisories feed has not run yet.","note":"No history of State Department travel advisories was collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["great-power-escalation"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"strait_warning","words":"NAVAREA or UKMTO warning in a major strait","plain":"A warning to ships in a major strait","module":"sky","kind":"any","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"NGA navigational warning: the NGA navigational warnings feed has not run yet. UKMTO warning, marked by an editor: needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"No history of NGA warnings to ships was collected, and the editor part needs an editor mark.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["great-power-escalation"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"jwc_listed_area","words":"Joint War Committee adds a listed area","plain":"Marine insurers add a sea area to their war risk list","module":"money","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"An editor sign, and no Joint War Committee lists were collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["great-power-escalation","war-market-shock"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"oil_jump","words":"oil up 8% or more in a day","plain":"Oil prices up 8% or more in a day","module":"money","kind":"metric","state":"NOT LIT","why":"No move of 8% or more from the day before.","note":null,"confidence":"MODERATE","confidence_reason":"One source graded B2 or better.","fetched_at":"2025-11-18T05:00:00.000Z","scenarios":["great-power-escalation"],"findings":[{"key":"DCOILWTICO","label":"Oil","measure":"change","value":-0.344998,"bar":8,"lit":false,"ts":"2025-11-17T00:00:00.000Z"}],"inputs":[{"type":"reading","db":"core","metric":"oil_wti","key":"DCOILWTICO","ts":"2025-11-14T00:00:00.000Z","value":60.87,"z":null,"baseline":null,"source":"fred","source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=DCOILWTICO","fetched_at":"2025-11-15T05:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"dcoilwtico.csv"},{"type":"reading","db":"core","metric":"oil_wti","key":"DCOILWTICO","ts":"2025-11-17T00:00:00.000Z","value":60.66,"z":null,"baseline":null,"source":"fred","source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=DCOILWTICO","fetched_at":"2025-11-18T05:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"dcoilwtico.csv"}]},{"sign_id":"unsc_emergency","words":"emergency UN Security Council session","plain":"The UN Security Council holds an emergency session","module":"pulse","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["great-power-escalation"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"cisa_emergency_directive","words":"New CISA emergency directive","plain":"CISA gives federal agencies an emergency order about a threat","module":"homeland","kind":"event","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"The CISA advisories feed has not run yet.","note":"No history of CISA advisories was collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["cyber-us-infrastructure"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"kev_over_baseline","words":"KEV adds over baseline","plain":"Far more actively exploited flaws than normal added to CISA's list","module":"homeland","kind":"metric","state":"NOT LIT","why":"Within the normal range for this time of week.","note":null,"confidence":"MODERATE","confidence_reason":"One source graded B2 or better.","fetched_at":"2025-11-18T05:00:00.000Z","scenarios":["cyber-us-infrastructure"],"findings":[{"key":"US","label":"Flaws added to CISA's list","measure":"z","value":-8,"bar":3,"lit":false,"ts":"2025-11-17T00:00:00.000Z"}],"inputs":[{"type":"reading","db":"core","metric":"kev_adds","key":"US","ts":"2025-11-17T00:00:00.000Z","value":0,"z":-8,"baseline":{"n":189,"mean":0.6497168478285026,"median":0,"mad":0,"method":"poisson_v1"},"source":"cisa_kev","source_url":"https://www.cisa.gov/sites/default/files/feeds/known_exploited_vulnerabilities.json","fetched_at":"2025-11-18T05:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"kev.json"}]},{"sign_id":"ransomware_us_over_baseline","words":"ransomware.live US victims over baseline","plain":"Far more US ransomware victims posted than normal","module":"homeland","kind":"metric","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"No readings yet.","note":"ransomware.live history now needs a paid key.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["cyber-us-infrastructure"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"radar_us_anomaly","words":"Cloudflare Radar outage or attack anomaly for a US region","plain":"Cloudflare reports an outage or an attack spike in a US region","module":"pulse","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["cyber-us-infrastructure"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"ioda_us_state_outage","words":"IODA internet outage in a US state","plain":"A large internet outage in a US state","module":"pulse","kind":"event","state":"LIT","why":"Seen 29 times in the last 24 hours.","note":null,"confidence":"MODERATE","confidence_reason":"One source graded B2 or better.","fetched_at":"2025-11-18T15:54:00.000Z","scenarios":["cyber-us-infrastructure"],"findings":[{"id":"01KABQAMT0D37838EX3V31CZ79","label":null,"measure":"event","value":null,"bar":null,"lit":true,"ts":"2025-11-18T14:54:00.000Z"},{"id":"01KABJD5R0GFN331DPY0A02XJJ","label":null,"measure":"event","value":null,"bar":null,"lit":true,"ts":"2025-11-18T13:28:00.000Z"},{"id":"01KABGP7Y0EE8FYW4G29MYBR7Q","label":null,"measure":"event","value":null,"bar":null,"lit":true,"ts":"2025-11-18T12:58:00.000Z"},{"id":"01KABFN980112FH3SD3X9EJHJA","label":null,"measure":"event","value":null,"bar":null,"lit":true,"ts":"2025-11-18T12:40:00.000Z"},{"id":"01KABFKEN0X3595Z0QDXCESW54","label":null,"measure":"event","value":null,"bar":null,"lit":true,"ts":"2025-11-18T12:39:00.000Z"},{"id":"01KABCZ7B0FG6JRATZVHVT64XG","label":null,"measure":"event","value":null,"bar":null,"lit":true,"ts":"2025-11-18T11:53:00.000Z"},{"id":"01KAB9BVY0KF3MVY8GVX5GV4VJ","label":null,"measure":"event","value":null,"bar":null,"lit":true,"ts":"2025-11-18T10:50:00.000Z"},{"id":"01KAB52HD0FEMV3JZDRPTXCEHF","label":null,"measure":"event","value":null,"bar":null,"lit":true,"ts":"2025-11-18T09:35:00.000Z"},{"id":"01KAB3W2Y0WXEDC6D4CGRRYTPH","label":null,"measure":"event","value":null,"bar":null,"lit":true,"ts":"2025-11-18T09:14:00.000Z"},{"id":"01KAB0E7A0V1BTQEHY8GGKC4Q6","label":null,"measure":"event","value":null,"bar":null,"lit":true,"ts":"2025-11-18T08:14:00.000Z"}],"inputs":[{"type":"event","id":"01KABQAMT0D37838EX3V31CZ79","source":"ioda","ts":"2025-11-18T14:54:00.000Z","tags":["ioda:critical","ioda:us_state"],"url":"https://ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu/region/4414","source_url":"https://api.ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu/v2/outages/alerts?from=1763337600&until=1763942400&entityType=region&relatedTo=country%2FUS&limit=5000","fetched_at":"2025-11-18T15:54:00.000Z","raw_key":"ioda-us-regions-20251117.json"},{"type":"event","id":"01KABJD5R0GFN331DPY0A02XJJ","source":"ioda","ts":"2025-11-18T13:28:00.000Z","tags":["ioda:critical","ioda:us_state"],"url":"https://ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu/region/4414","source_url":"https://api.ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu/v2/outages/alerts?from=1763337600&until=1763942400&entityType=region&relatedTo=country%2FUS&limit=5000","fetched_at":"2025-11-18T14:28:00.000Z","raw_key":"ioda-us-regions-20251117.json"},{"type":"event","id":"01KABGP7Y0EE8FYW4G29MYBR7Q","source":"ioda","ts":"2025-11-18T12:58:00.000Z","tags":["ioda:critical","ioda:us_state"],"url":"https://ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu/region/4414","source_url":"https://api.ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu/v2/outages/alerts?from=1763337600&until=1763942400&entityType=region&relatedTo=country%2FUS&limit=5000","fetched_at":"2025-11-18T13:58:00.000Z","raw_key":"ioda-us-regions-20251117.json"},{"type":"event","id":"01KABFN980112FH3SD3X9EJHJA","source":"ioda","ts":"2025-11-18T12:40:00.000Z","tags":["ioda:critical","ioda:us_state"],"url":"https://ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu/region/4420","source_url":"https://api.ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu/v2/outages/alerts?from=1763337600&until=1763942400&entityType=region&relatedTo=country%2FUS&limit=5000","fetched_at":"2025-11-18T13:40:00.000Z","raw_key":"ioda-us-regions-20251117.json"},{"type":"event","id":"01KABFKEN0X3595Z0QDXCESW54","source":"ioda","ts":"2025-11-18T12:39:00.000Z","tags":["ioda:critical","ioda:us_state"],"url":"https://ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu/region/4414","source_url":"https://api.ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu/v2/outages/alerts?from=1763337600&until=1763942400&entityType=region&relatedTo=country%2FUS&limit=5000","fetched_at":"2025-11-18T13:39:00.000Z","raw_key":"ioda-us-regions-20251117.json"},{"type":"event","id":"01KABCZ7B0FG6JRATZVHVT64XG","source":"ioda","ts":"2025-11-18T11:53:00.000Z","tags":["ioda:critical","ioda:us_state"],"url":"https://ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu/region/4414","source_url":"https://api.ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu/v2/outages/alerts?from=1763337600&until=1763942400&entityType=region&relatedTo=country%2FUS&limit=5000","fetched_at":"2025-11-18T12:53:00.000Z","raw_key":"ioda-us-regions-20251117.json"},{"type":"event","id":"01KAB9BVY0KF3MVY8GVX5GV4VJ","source":"ioda","ts":"2025-11-18T10:50:00.000Z","tags":["ioda:critical","ioda:us_state"],"url":"https://ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu/region/4414","source_url":"https://api.ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu/v2/outages/alerts?from=1763337600&until=1763942400&entityType=region&relatedTo=country%2FUS&limit=5000","fetched_at":"2025-11-18T11:50:00.000Z","raw_key":"ioda-us-regions-20251117.json"},{"type":"event","id":"01KAB52HD0FEMV3JZDRPTXCEHF","source":"ioda","ts":"2025-11-18T09:35:00.000Z","tags":["ioda:critical","ioda:us_state"],"url":"https://ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu/region/4414","source_url":"https://api.ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu/v2/outages/alerts?from=1763337600&until=1763942400&entityType=region&relatedTo=country%2FUS&limit=5000","fetched_at":"2025-11-18T10:35:00.000Z","raw_key":"ioda-us-regions-20251117.json"},{"type":"event","id":"01KAB3W2Y0WXEDC6D4CGRRYTPH","source":"ioda","ts":"2025-11-18T09:14:00.000Z","tags":["ioda:critical","ioda:us_state"],"url":"https://ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu/region/4414","source_url":"https://api.ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu/v2/outages/alerts?from=1763337600&until=1763942400&entityType=region&relatedTo=country%2FUS&limit=5000","fetched_at":"2025-11-18T10:14:00.000Z","raw_key":"ioda-us-regions-20251117.json"},{"type":"event","id":"01KAB0E7A0V1BTQEHY8GGKC4Q6","source":"ioda","ts":"2025-11-18T08:14:00.000Z","tags":["ioda:critical","ioda:us_state"],"url":"https://ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu/region/4414","source_url":"https://api.ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu/v2/outages/alerts?from=1763337600&until=1763942400&entityType=region&relatedTo=country%2FUS&limit=5000","fetched_at":"2025-11-18T09:14:00.000Z","raw_key":"ioda-us-regions-20251117.json"}]},{"sign_id":"fort_meade_ring","words":"Fort Meade ring MAYDAY","plain":"Food places near Fort Meade are at MAYDAY","module":"mayday","kind":"alert","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Not enough data in the last hour.","note":"The Mayday Index has no history before launch.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["cyber-us-infrastructure"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"threats_on_officials","words":"Threats or attacks on officials and judges over baseline (ACLED, DOJ charges)","plain":"More threats or attacks on officials and judges than normal","module":"homeland","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"An editor sign, and no ACLED history was collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["domestic-instability"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"armed_demonstrations","words":"armed demonstrations over baseline (ACLED)","plain":"More armed demonstrations than normal","module":"pulse","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"An editor sign, and no ACLED history was collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["domestic-instability"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"refusal_to_certify","words":"a state or official refusing to certify a result or obey a court order","plain":"A state or an official refuses to certify a result or obey a court order","module":"homeland","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["domestic-instability"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"public_break","words":"a public break with the federal government by a governor, general or senior law enforcement leader","plain":"A governor, a general or a top police leader breaks with the federal government in public","module":"homeland","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["domestic-instability"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"guard_over_objection","words":"National Guard deployed over a governor's objection","plain":"The National Guard deploys in a state over its governor's objection","module":"homeland","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["domestic-instability"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"tfr_state_capital","words":"TFR over a state capital","plain":"A new security flight restriction over a state capital","module":"sky","kind":"event","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"The FAA flight restrictions feed has not run yet.","note":"No FAA flight restriction archive was collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["domestic-instability","election-disruption"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"election_psa","words":"CISA or FBI election PSA","plain":"CISA or the FBI warns the public about a threat to an election","module":"homeland","kind":"any","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"CISA election advisory: the CISA advisories feed has not run yet. FBI warning, marked by an editor: needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"No history of CISA advisories was collected, and the editor part needs an editor mark.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["election-disruption"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"election_office_advisories","words":"election-office advisories in 3 or more states","plain":"Election offices in 3 or more states post warnings","module":"homeland","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"An editor sign, and no election-office advisories were collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["election-disruption"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"certified_market_swing","words":"Kalshi or Polymarket odds swing over 15 points on a certified-result market","plain":"Betting odds on a certified election result swing 15 points or more in a day","module":"pulse","kind":"metric","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"No readings yet.","note":"No market on a certified election result was collected for any window, and no Kalshi history.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["election-disruption"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"us_protest_over_baseline","words":"GDELT US protest events over baseline","plain":"Far more protest news in the US than normal","module":"pulse","kind":"metric","state":"NOT LIT","why":"Within the normal range for this time of week.","note":null,"confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"One source, graded C3.","fetched_at":"2025-11-18T17:00:00.000Z","scenarios":["election-disruption"],"findings":[{"key":"country:US","label":"Protest news in the US","measure":"z","value":-0.2679290014046625,"bar":3,"lit":false,"ts":"2025-11-18T16:45:00.000Z"}],"inputs":[{"type":"reading","db":"pulse","metric":"gdelt_country_protest","key":"country:US","ts":"2025-11-18T16:45:00.000Z","value":4,"z":-0.2679290014046625,"baseline":{"n":40,"mean":4.205547469354941,"median":4.5,"mad":2,"method":"poisson_v1"},"source":"gdelt","source_url":"https://data.gdeltproject.org/gdeltv2/20251118164500.export.CSV.zip","fetched_at":"2025-11-18T17:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"20251118164500.export.CSV.zip"}]},{"sign_id":"etf_shock","words":"Defense or energy ETF move over 2 robust-z in a day","plain":"Defense or energy funds move far more than normal in a day","module":"money","kind":"metric","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"No readings yet.","note":"Fund prices need the owner's price key. Running prepare again with it can fill this sign.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["war-market-shock"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"money_cluster","words":"Follow the Money cluster alert","plain":"Three or more public filers report buying or selling the same watched stock in the same week","module":"money","kind":"alert","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"The House disclosure feed or the SEC Form 4 feed has not run yet.","note":"Follow the Money timing flags are not replayed in the backtest.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["war-market-shock"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"vix_over_baseline","words":"VIX over baseline","plain":"Stock market fear far above normal","module":"money","kind":"metric","state":"NOT LIT","why":"Within the normal range for this time of week.","note":null,"confidence":"MODERATE","confidence_reason":"One source graded B2 or better.","fetched_at":"2025-11-18T05:00:00.000Z","scenarios":["war-market-shock"],"findings":[{"key":"VIXCLS","label":"Market fear (the VIX)","measure":"z","value":3.3725000000000076,"bar":3,"lit":false,"ts":"2025-11-17T00:00:00.000Z"}],"inputs":[{"type":"reading","db":"core","metric":"vix","key":"VIXCLS","ts":"2025-11-17T00:00:00.000Z","value":22.38,"z":3.3725000000000076,"baseline":{"n":135,"mean":17.364634181099518,"median":16.83,"mad":1.1099999999999977,"method":"robust_z_v1"},"source":"fred","source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=VIXCLS","fetched_at":"2025-11-18T05:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"vixcls.csv"}]},{"sign_id":"sanctions_over_baseline","words":"sanctions adds over baseline","plain":"Far more sanctions added than normal","module":"pulse","kind":"metric","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"No readings yet.","note":"No history of the OFAC sanctions list was collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["war-market-shock"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]}],"series":[{"db":"pulse","metric":"gdelt_country_protest","key":"country:US","source":"gdelt","label":null,"tags":[],"readings_known":5568,"first_ts":"2025-09-21T17:00:00.000Z","latest":{"ts":"2025-11-18T16:45:00.000Z","value":4,"source_url":"https://data.gdeltproject.org/gdeltv2/20251118164500.export.CSV.zip","fetched_at":"2025-11-18T17:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"20251118164500.export.CSV.zip"},"baseline":{"as_of":"2025-11-18T07:00:00.000Z","pool":"slot","n":40,"warm":true}},{"db":"core","metric":"vix","key":"VIXCLS","source":"fred","label":null,"tags":[],"readings_known":135,"first_ts":"2025-05-13T00:00:00.000Z","latest":{"ts":"2025-11-17T00:00:00.000Z","value":22.38,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=VIXCLS","fetched_at":"2025-11-18T05:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"vixcls.csv"},"baseline":{"as_of":"2025-11-18T07:00:00.000Z","pool":"all_days","n":135,"warm":true}},{"db":"core","metric":"oil_wti","key":"DCOILWTICO","source":"fred","label":null,"tags":[],"readings_known":129,"first_ts":"2025-05-13T00:00:00.000Z","latest":{"ts":"2025-11-17T00:00:00.000Z","value":60.66,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=DCOILWTICO","fetched_at":"2025-11-18T05:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"dcoilwtico.csv"},"baseline":null},{"db":"core","metric":"kev_adds","key":"US","source":"cisa_kev","label":null,"tags":[],"readings_known":189,"first_ts":"2025-05-13T00:00:00.000Z","latest":{"ts":"2025-11-17T00:00:00.000Z","value":0,"source_url":"https://www.cisa.gov/sites/default/files/feeds/known_exploited_vulnerabilities.json","fetched_at":"2025-11-18T05:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"kev.json"},"baseline":{"as_of":"2025-11-18T07:00:00.000Z","pool":"all_days","n":189,"warm":true}}],"events":[{"source":"ioda","known":75}],"sources":[{"source":"ioda","last_ok_at":"2025-11-18T17:00:00.000Z","status":"ok","source_url":"https://api.ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu/v2/outages/alerts?from=1763337600&until=1763942400&entityType=region&relatedTo=country%2FUS&limit=5000","fetched_at":"2025-11-18T17:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"ioda-us-regions-20251117.json"}]},{"evaluate_at":"2025-11-19T17:00:00.000Z","local_time":"2025-11-19T12:00","zone":"America/New_York","baseline_as_of":"2025-11-19T07:00:00.000Z","status_line":{"evaluated_at":"2025-11-19T17:00:00.000Z","status":"NORMAL","rule_status":"NORMAL","held":false,"sentence":"No scenario has enough signs lit.","rule":"none","produced_by":{"alerts":[],"scenarios":[]},"version":"replay-1+692c1e40db38971c","source_url":"data/backtest/results.json","fetched_at":"2025-11-19T16:44:00.000Z","raw_key":"results.json"},"scenarios":[{"scenario_id":"us-strike-abroad","name":"US military strike abroad","lit":0,"not_lit":0,"not_evaluated":7,"total":7,"modules_lit":[],"counted":false,"reaches":"NORMAL","contribution":"NORMAL","elevated_at":4,"mayday_at":6,"weight_lit":0,"weight_total":7,"why":"0 of 7 signs lit. 7 not evaluated.","gaps":["Classified movements and orders.","Aircraft that fly without ADS-B or with blocked positions.","Encrypted communications.","Anything that is not on a public feed.","Food places near the Pentagon are at MAYDAY: not enough data in the last hour.","Food places near the White House are at MAYDAY: not enough data in the last hour.","Far more tanker planes than normal over one region: no readings yet.","An airborne command post flying at an unusual hour: no readings yet.","Betting odds on a US strike up 15 points or more in a day: no readings yet.","News about the target country turns far darker than normal: no readings yet.","A new security flight restriction over Washington, or executive jets flying far more than normal: security flight restriction over Washington: the FAA flight restrictions feed has not run yet. Executive jets: no readings yet."],"signs":[{"sign_id":"pentagon_ring","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"white_house_ring","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"tanker_surge","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"command_aircraft_offhours","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"strike_market_jump","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"target_tone_drop","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"dc_tfr_or_exec_aircraft","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1}],"source_url":"data/backtest/results.json","fetched_at":"2025-11-19T17:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"results.json"},{"scenario_id":"great-power-escalation","name":"Great-power escalation","lit":0,"not_lit":1,"not_evaluated":6,"total":7,"modules_lit":[],"counted":false,"reaches":"NORMAL","contribution":"NORMAL","elevated_at":3,"mayday_at":5,"weight_lit":0,"weight_total":7,"why":"0 of 7 signs lit. 6 not evaluated.","gaps":["Submarine positions.","Nuclear alert levels.","Diplomatic channels.","UKMTO warnings, Joint War Committee lists and UN Security Council sessions until an editor marks them.","Two credible outlets report nuclear bombers moved to other bases, or more submarines at sea: needs an editor. No mark yet.","An airborne command post flying at an unusual hour: no readings yet.","The State Department orders staff out of a country, or tells Americans not to travel to a G20 country: the State Department travel advisories feed has not run yet.","A warning to ships in a major strait: nGA navigational warning: the NGA navigational warnings feed has not run yet. UKMTO warning, marked by an editor: needs an editor. No mark yet.","Marine insurers add a sea area to their war risk list: needs an editor. No mark yet.","The UN Security Council holds an emergency session: needs an editor. No mark yet."],"signs":[{"sign_id":"bomber_sub_reports","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"command_aircraft_offhours","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"state_departure_or_level4","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"strait_warning","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"jwc_listed_area","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"oil_jump","state":"NOT LIT","weight":1},{"sign_id":"unsc_emergency","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1}],"source_url":"data/backtest/results.json","fetched_at":"2025-11-19T05:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"results.json"},{"scenario_id":"cyber-us-infrastructure","name":"Major cyber event on US infrastructure","lit":1,"not_lit":1,"not_evaluated":4,"total":6,"modules_lit":["pulse"],"counted":false,"reaches":"NORMAL","contribution":"NORMAL","elevated_at":3,"mayday_at":5,"weight_lit":1,"weight_total":6,"why":"1 of 6 signs lit, from 1 module. 4 not evaluated.","gaps":["Incidents not yet disclosed.","Classified attribution.","Private network telemetry.","Cloudflare Radar data until an editor marks it.","CISA gives federal agencies an emergency order about a threat: the CISA advisories feed has not run yet.","Far more US ransomware victims posted than normal: no readings yet.","Cloudflare reports an outage or an attack spike in a US region: needs an editor. No mark yet.","Food places near Fort Meade are at MAYDAY: not enough data in the last hour."],"signs":[{"sign_id":"cisa_emergency_directive","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"kev_over_baseline","state":"NOT LIT","weight":1},{"sign_id":"ransomware_us_over_baseline","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"radar_us_anomaly","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"ioda_us_state_outage","state":"LIT","weight":1},{"sign_id":"fort_meade_ring","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1}],"source_url":"data/backtest/results.json","fetched_at":"2025-11-19T16:44:00.000Z","raw_key":"results.json"},{"scenario_id":"domestic-instability","name":"Domestic instability","lit":0,"not_lit":0,"not_evaluated":6,"total":6,"modules_lit":[],"counted":false,"reaches":"NORMAL","contribution":"NORMAL","elevated_at":3,"mayday_at":5,"weight_lit":0,"weight_total":6,"why":"0 of 6 signs lit. 6 not evaluated.","gaps":["ACLED data until its keys exist.","Threats that never become a public charge.","Private talks between officials.","More threats or attacks on officials and judges than normal: needs an editor. No mark yet.","More armed demonstrations than normal: needs an editor. No mark yet.","A state or an official refuses to certify a result or obey a court order: needs an editor. No mark yet.","A governor, a general or a top police leader breaks with the federal government in public: needs an editor. No mark yet.","The National Guard deploys in a state over its governor's objection: needs an editor. No mark yet.","A new security flight restriction over a state capital: the FAA flight restrictions feed has not run yet."],"signs":[{"sign_id":"threats_on_officials","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"armed_demonstrations","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"refusal_to_certify","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"public_break","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"guard_over_objection","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"tfr_state_capital","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1}],"source_url":"data/backtest/results.json","fetched_at":"2025-11-19T17:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"results.json"},{"scenario_id":"election-disruption","name":"Election disruption","lit":1,"not_lit":0,"not_evaluated":4,"total":5,"modules_lit":["pulse"],"counted":false,"reaches":"NORMAL","contribution":"NORMAL","elevated_at":3,"mayday_at":4,"weight_lit":1,"weight_total":5,"why":"1 of 5 signs lit, from 1 module. 4 not evaluated.","gaps":["State election office notices until an editor marks them.","FBI announcements until an editor marks them.","Private threats to election workers.","CISA or the FBI warns the public about a threat to an election: cISA election advisory: the CISA advisories feed has not run yet. FBI warning, marked by an editor: needs an editor. No mark yet.","Election offices in 3 or more states post warnings: needs an editor. No mark yet.","Betting odds on a certified election result swing 15 points or more in a day: no readings yet.","A new security flight restriction over a state capital: the FAA flight restrictions feed has not run yet."],"signs":[{"sign_id":"election_psa","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"election_office_advisories","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"certified_market_swing","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"us_protest_over_baseline","state":"LIT","weight":1},{"sign_id":"tfr_state_capital","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1}],"source_url":"data/backtest/results.json","fetched_at":"2025-11-19T06:30:00.000Z","raw_key":"results.json"},{"scenario_id":"war-market-shock","name":"War-driven market shock","lit":1,"not_lit":0,"not_evaluated":4,"total":5,"modules_lit":["money"],"counted":false,"reaches":"NORMAL","contribution":"NORMAL","elevated_at":3,"mayday_at":4,"weight_lit":1,"weight_total":5,"why":"1 of 5 signs lit, from 1 module. 4 not evaluated.","gaps":["Trades not filed yet: members of Congress report up to 45 days late.","Private and off-exchange trading.","Joint War Committee lists until an editor marks them.","Defense or energy funds move far more than normal in a day: no readings yet.","Three or more public filers report buying or selling the same watched stock in the same week: the House disclosure feed or the SEC Form 4 feed has not run yet.","Marine insurers add a sea area to their war risk list: needs an editor. No mark yet.","Far more sanctions added than normal: no readings yet."],"signs":[{"sign_id":"etf_shock","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"money_cluster","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"vix_over_baseline","state":"LIT","weight":1},{"sign_id":"jwc_listed_area","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"sanctions_over_baseline","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1}],"source_url":"data/backtest/results.json","fetched_at":"2025-11-19T05:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"results.json"}],"signs":[{"sign_id":"pentagon_ring","words":"Pentagon ring MAYDAY","plain":"Food places near the Pentagon are at MAYDAY","module":"mayday","kind":"alert","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Not enough data in the last hour.","note":"The Mayday Index has no history before launch.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["us-strike-abroad"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"white_house_ring","words":"White House ring MAYDAY","plain":"Food places near the White House are at MAYDAY","module":"mayday","kind":"alert","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Not enough data in the last hour.","note":"The Mayday Index has no history before launch.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["us-strike-abroad"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"tanker_surge","words":"tanker surge over a region","plain":"Far more tanker planes than normal over one region","module":"sky","kind":"metric","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"No readings yet.","note":"ADS-B archives run to gigabytes a day, so no flight history was collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["us-strike-abroad"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"command_aircraft_offhours","words":"E-4B or E-6B airborne off-hours","plain":"An airborne command post flying at an unusual hour","module":"sky","kind":"metric","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"No readings yet.","note":"ADS-B archives run to gigabytes a day, so no flight history was collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["us-strike-abroad","great-power-escalation"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"strike_market_jump","words":"Kalshi or Polymarket strike market up 15 points in 24 h","plain":"Betting odds on a US strike up 15 points or more in a day","module":"pulse","kind":"metric","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"No readings yet.","note":"No strike market was found that traded that week, so the strike market sign has no series and no country is a strike target for the tone sign. Both are NOT EVALUATED.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["us-strike-abroad"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"target_tone_drop","words":"GDELT tone drop for the target country","plain":"News about the target country turns far darker than normal","module":"pulse","kind":"metric","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"No readings yet.","note":"No strike market was found that traded that week, so the strike market sign has no series and no country is a strike target for the tone sign. Both are NOT EVALUATED.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["us-strike-abroad"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"dc_tfr_or_exec_aircraft","words":"DC TFR or executive aircraft moving","plain":"A new security flight restriction over Washington, or executive jets flying far more than normal","module":"sky","kind":"any","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Security flight restriction over Washington: the FAA flight restrictions feed has not run yet. Executive jets: no readings yet.","note":"No FAA flight restriction archive and no flight history were collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["us-strike-abroad"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"bomber_sub_reports","words":"Nuclear-capable bombers dispersed or a submarine surge, reported by two credible outlets","plain":"Two credible outlets report nuclear bombers moved to other bases, or more submarines at sea","module":"sky","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["great-power-escalation"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"state_departure_or_level4","words":"State Department ordered departure or Level 4 for a G20 country","plain":"The State Department orders staff out of a country, or tells Americans not to travel to a G20 country","module":"pulse","kind":"event","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"The State Department travel advisories feed has not run yet.","note":"No history of State Department travel advisories was collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["great-power-escalation"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"strait_warning","words":"NAVAREA or UKMTO warning in a major strait","plain":"A warning to ships in a major strait","module":"sky","kind":"any","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"NGA navigational warning: the NGA navigational warnings feed has not run yet. UKMTO warning, marked by an editor: needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"No history of NGA warnings to ships was collected, and the editor part needs an editor mark.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["great-power-escalation"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"jwc_listed_area","words":"Joint War Committee adds a listed area","plain":"Marine insurers add a sea area to their war risk list","module":"money","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Needs an editor. 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Running prepare again with it can fill this sign.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["war-market-shock"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"money_cluster","words":"Follow the Money cluster alert","plain":"Three or more public filers report buying or selling the same watched stock in the same week","module":"money","kind":"alert","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"The House disclosure feed or the SEC Form 4 feed has not run yet.","note":"Follow the Money timing flags are not replayed in the backtest.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["war-market-shock"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"vix_over_baseline","words":"VIX over baseline","plain":"Stock market fear far above normal","module":"money","kind":"metric","state":"LIT","why":"Market fear (the VIX): far above normal, in the last 3 days.","note":null,"confidence":"MODERATE","confidence_reason":"One source graded B2 or 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scenario has enough signs lit.","rule":"none","produced_by":{"alerts":[],"scenarios":[]},"version":"replay-1+692c1e40db38971c","source_url":"data/backtest/results.json","fetched_at":"2025-11-20T09:25:00.000Z","raw_key":"results.json"},"scenarios":[{"scenario_id":"us-strike-abroad","name":"US military strike abroad","lit":0,"not_lit":0,"not_evaluated":7,"total":7,"modules_lit":[],"counted":false,"reaches":"NORMAL","contribution":"NORMAL","elevated_at":4,"mayday_at":6,"weight_lit":0,"weight_total":7,"why":"0 of 7 signs lit. 7 not evaluated.","gaps":["Classified movements and orders.","Aircraft that fly without ADS-B or with blocked positions.","Encrypted communications.","Anything that is not on a public feed.","Food places near the Pentagon are at MAYDAY: not enough data in the last hour.","Food places near the White House are at MAYDAY: not enough data in the last hour.","Far more tanker planes than normal over one region: no readings yet.","An airborne command post flying at an unusual hour: no readings yet.","Betting odds on a US strike up 15 points or more in a day: no readings yet.","News about the target country turns far darker than normal: no readings yet.","A new security flight restriction over Washington, or executive jets flying far more than normal: security flight restriction over Washington: the FAA flight restrictions feed has not run yet. Executive jets: no readings yet."],"signs":[{"sign_id":"pentagon_ring","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"white_house_ring","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"tanker_surge","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"command_aircraft_offhours","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"strike_market_jump","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"target_tone_drop","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"dc_tfr_or_exec_aircraft","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1}],"source_url":"data/backtest/results.json","fetched_at":"2025-11-20T17:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"results.json"},{"scenario_id":"great-power-escalation","name":"Great-power escalation","lit":0,"not_lit":1,"not_evaluated":6,"total":7,"modules_lit":[],"counted":false,"reaches":"NORMAL","contribution":"NORMAL","elevated_at":3,"mayday_at":5,"weight_lit":0,"weight_total":7,"why":"0 of 7 signs lit. 6 not evaluated.","gaps":["Submarine positions.","Nuclear alert levels.","Diplomatic channels.","UKMTO warnings, Joint War Committee lists and UN Security Council sessions until an editor marks them.","Two credible outlets report nuclear bombers moved to other bases, or more submarines at sea: needs an editor. No mark yet.","An airborne command post flying at an unusual hour: no readings yet.","The State Department orders staff out of a country, or tells Americans not to travel to a G20 country: the State Department travel advisories feed has not run yet.","A warning to ships in a major strait: nGA navigational warning: the NGA navigational warnings feed has not run yet. UKMTO warning, marked by an editor: needs an editor. No mark yet.","Marine insurers add a sea area to their war risk list: needs an editor. No mark yet.","The UN Security Council holds an emergency session: needs an editor. No mark yet."],"signs":[{"sign_id":"bomber_sub_reports","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"command_aircraft_offhours","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"state_departure_or_level4","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"strait_warning","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"jwc_listed_area","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"oil_jump","state":"NOT LIT","weight":1},{"sign_id":"unsc_emergency","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1}],"source_url":"data/backtest/results.json","fetched_at":"2025-11-20T05:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"results.json"},{"scenario_id":"cyber-us-infrastructure","name":"Major cyber event on US infrastructure","lit":1,"not_lit":1,"not_evaluated":4,"total":6,"modules_lit":["pulse"],"counted":false,"reaches":"NORMAL","contribution":"NORMAL","elevated_at":3,"mayday_at":5,"weight_lit":1,"weight_total":6,"why":"1 of 6 signs lit, from 1 module. 4 not evaluated.","gaps":["Incidents not yet disclosed.","Classified attribution.","Private network telemetry.","Cloudflare Radar data until an editor marks it.","CISA gives federal agencies an emergency order about a threat: the CISA advisories feed has not run yet.","Far more US ransomware victims posted than normal: no readings yet.","Cloudflare reports an outage or an attack spike in a US region: needs an editor. No mark yet.","Food places near Fort Meade are at MAYDAY: not enough data in the last hour."],"signs":[{"sign_id":"cisa_emergency_directive","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"kev_over_baseline","state":"NOT LIT","weight":1},{"sign_id":"ransomware_us_over_baseline","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"radar_us_anomaly","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"ioda_us_state_outage","state":"LIT","weight":1},{"sign_id":"fort_meade_ring","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1}],"source_url":"data/backtest/results.json","fetched_at":"2025-11-20T09:25:00.000Z","raw_key":"results.json"},{"scenario_id":"domestic-instability","name":"Domestic instability","lit":0,"not_lit":0,"not_evaluated":6,"total":6,"modules_lit":[],"counted":false,"reaches":"NORMAL","contribution":"NORMAL","elevated_at":3,"mayday_at":5,"weight_lit":0,"weight_total":6,"why":"0 of 6 signs lit. 6 not evaluated.","gaps":["ACLED data until its keys exist.","Threats that never become a public charge.","Private talks between officials.","More threats or attacks on officials and judges than normal: needs an editor. No mark yet.","More armed demonstrations than normal: needs an editor. No mark yet.","A state or an official refuses to certify a result or obey a court order: needs an editor. No mark yet.","A governor, a general or a top police leader breaks with the federal government in public: needs an editor. No mark yet.","The National Guard deploys in a state over its governor's objection: needs an editor. No mark yet.","A new security flight restriction over a state capital: the FAA flight restrictions feed has not run yet."],"signs":[{"sign_id":"threats_on_officials","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"armed_demonstrations","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"refusal_to_certify","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"public_break","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"guard_over_objection","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"tfr_state_capital","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1}],"source_url":"data/backtest/results.json","fetched_at":"2025-11-20T17:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"results.json"},{"scenario_id":"election-disruption","name":"Election disruption","lit":1,"not_lit":0,"not_evaluated":4,"total":5,"modules_lit":["pulse"],"counted":false,"reaches":"NORMAL","contribution":"NORMAL","elevated_at":3,"mayday_at":4,"weight_lit":1,"weight_total":5,"why":"1 of 5 signs lit, from 1 module. 4 not evaluated.","gaps":["State election office notices until an editor marks them.","FBI announcements until an editor marks them.","Private threats to election workers.","CISA or the FBI warns the public about a threat to an election: cISA election advisory: the CISA advisories feed has not run yet. FBI warning, marked by an editor: needs an editor. No mark yet.","Election offices in 3 or more states post warnings: needs an editor. No mark yet.","Betting odds on a certified election result swing 15 points or more in a day: no readings yet.","A new security flight restriction over a state capital: the FAA flight restrictions feed has not run yet."],"signs":[{"sign_id":"election_psa","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"election_office_advisories","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"certified_market_swing","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"us_protest_over_baseline","state":"LIT","weight":1},{"sign_id":"tfr_state_capital","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1}],"source_url":"data/backtest/results.json","fetched_at":"2025-11-20T04:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"results.json"},{"scenario_id":"war-market-shock","name":"War-driven market shock","lit":1,"not_lit":0,"not_evaluated":4,"total":5,"modules_lit":["money"],"counted":false,"reaches":"NORMAL","contribution":"NORMAL","elevated_at":3,"mayday_at":4,"weight_lit":1,"weight_total":5,"why":"1 of 5 signs lit, from 1 module. 4 not evaluated.","gaps":["Trades not filed yet: members of Congress report up to 45 days late.","Private and off-exchange trading.","Joint War Committee lists until an editor marks them.","Defense or energy funds move far more than normal in a day: no readings yet.","Three or more public filers report buying or selling the same watched stock in the same week: the House disclosure feed or the SEC Form 4 feed has not run yet.","Marine insurers add a sea area to their war risk list: needs an editor. No mark yet.","Far more sanctions added than normal: no readings yet."],"signs":[{"sign_id":"etf_shock","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"money_cluster","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"vix_over_baseline","state":"LIT","weight":1},{"sign_id":"jwc_listed_area","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"sanctions_over_baseline","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1}],"source_url":"data/backtest/results.json","fetched_at":"2025-11-20T05:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"results.json"}],"signs":[{"sign_id":"pentagon_ring","words":"Pentagon ring MAYDAY","plain":"Food places near the Pentagon are at MAYDAY","module":"mayday","kind":"alert","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Not enough data in the last hour.","note":"The Mayday Index has no history before launch.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["us-strike-abroad"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"white_house_ring","words":"White House ring MAYDAY","plain":"Food places near the White House are at MAYDAY","module":"mayday","kind":"alert","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Not enough data in the last hour.","note":"The Mayday Index has no history before launch.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["us-strike-abroad"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"tanker_surge","words":"tanker surge over a region","plain":"Far more tanker planes than normal over one region","module":"sky","kind":"metric","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"No readings yet.","note":"ADS-B archives run to gigabytes a day, so no flight history was collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["us-strike-abroad"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"command_aircraft_offhours","words":"E-4B or E-6B airborne off-hours","plain":"An airborne command post flying at an unusual hour","module":"sky","kind":"metric","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"No readings yet.","note":"ADS-B archives run to gigabytes a day, so no flight history was collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["us-strike-abroad","great-power-escalation"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"strike_market_jump","words":"Kalshi or Polymarket strike market up 15 points in 24 h","plain":"Betting odds on a US strike up 15 points or more in a day","module":"pulse","kind":"metric","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"No readings yet.","note":"No strike market was found that traded that week, so the strike market sign has no series and no country is a strike target for the tone sign. Both are NOT EVALUATED.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["us-strike-abroad"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"target_tone_drop","words":"GDELT tone drop for the target country","plain":"News about the target country turns far darker than normal","module":"pulse","kind":"metric","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"No readings yet.","note":"No strike market was found that traded that week, so the strike market sign has no series and no country is a strike target for the tone sign. Both are NOT EVALUATED.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["us-strike-abroad"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"dc_tfr_or_exec_aircraft","words":"DC TFR or executive aircraft moving","plain":"A new security flight restriction over Washington, or executive jets flying far more than normal","module":"sky","kind":"any","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Security flight restriction over Washington: the FAA flight restrictions feed has not run yet. Executive jets: no readings yet.","note":"No FAA flight restriction archive and no flight history were collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["us-strike-abroad"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"bomber_sub_reports","words":"Nuclear-capable bombers dispersed or a submarine surge, reported by two credible outlets","plain":"Two credible outlets report nuclear bombers moved to other bases, or more submarines at sea","module":"sky","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["great-power-escalation"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"state_departure_or_level4","words":"State Department ordered departure or Level 4 for a G20 country","plain":"The State Department orders staff out of a country, or tells Americans not to travel to a G20 country","module":"pulse","kind":"event","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"The State Department travel advisories feed has not run yet.","note":"No history of State Department travel advisories was collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["great-power-escalation"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"strait_warning","words":"NAVAREA or UKMTO warning in a major strait","plain":"A warning to ships in a major strait","module":"sky","kind":"any","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"NGA navigational warning: the NGA navigational warnings feed has not run yet. UKMTO warning, marked by an editor: needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"No history of NGA warnings to ships was collected, and the editor part needs an editor mark.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["great-power-escalation"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"jwc_listed_area","words":"Joint War Committee adds a listed area","plain":"Marine insurers add a sea area to their war risk list","module":"money","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"An editor sign, and no Joint War Committee lists were collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["great-power-escalation","war-market-shock"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"oil_jump","words":"oil up 8% or more in a day","plain":"Oil prices up 8% or more in a day","module":"money","kind":"metric","state":"NOT LIT","why":"No move of 8% or more from the day before.","note":null,"confidence":"MODERATE","confidence_reason":"One source graded B2 or better.","fetched_at":"2025-11-20T05:00:00.000Z","scenarios":["great-power-escalation"],"findings":[{"key":"DCOILWTICO","label":"Oil","measure":"change","value":-2.015932,"bar":8,"lit":false,"ts":"2025-11-19T00:00:00.000Z"}],"inputs":[{"type":"reading","db":"core","metric":"oil_wti","key":"DCOILWTICO","ts":"2025-11-18T00:00:00.000Z","value":61.51,"z":null,"baseline":null,"source":"fred","source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=DCOILWTICO","fetched_at":"2025-11-19T05:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"dcoilwtico.csv"},{"type":"reading","db":"core","metric":"oil_wti","key":"DCOILWTICO","ts":"2025-11-19T00:00:00.000Z","value":60.27,"z":null,"baseline":null,"source":"fred","source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=DCOILWTICO","fetched_at":"2025-11-20T05:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"dcoilwtico.csv"}]},{"sign_id":"unsc_emergency","words":"emergency UN Security Council session","plain":"The UN Security Council holds an emergency session","module":"pulse","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["great-power-escalation"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"cisa_emergency_directive","words":"New CISA emergency directive","plain":"CISA gives federal agencies an emergency order about a threat","module":"homeland","kind":"event","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"The CISA advisories feed has not run yet.","note":"No history of CISA advisories was collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["cyber-us-infrastructure"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"kev_over_baseline","words":"KEV adds over baseline","plain":"Far more actively exploited flaws than normal added to CISA's list","module":"homeland","kind":"metric","state":"NOT LIT","why":"Within the normal range for this time of week.","note":null,"confidence":"MODERATE","confidence_reason":"One source graded B2 or better.","fetched_at":"2025-11-20T05:00:00.000Z","scenarios":["cyber-us-infrastructure"],"findings":[{"key":"US","label":"Flaws added to CISA's list","measure":"z","value":0.043328426214751435,"bar":3,"lit":false,"ts":"2025-11-19T00:00:00.000Z"}],"inputs":[{"type":"reading","db":"core","metric":"kev_adds","key":"US","ts":"2025-11-19T00:00:00.000Z","value":1,"z":0.043328426214751435,"baseline":{"n":191,"mean":0.6591707056213644,"median":0,"mad":0,"method":"poisson_v1"},"source":"cisa_kev","source_url":"https://www.cisa.gov/sites/default/files/feeds/known_exploited_vulnerabilities.json","fetched_at":"2025-11-20T05:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"kev.json"}]},{"sign_id":"ransomware_us_over_baseline","words":"ransomware.live US victims over baseline","plain":"Far more US ransomware victims posted than normal","module":"homeland","kind":"metric","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"No readings yet.","note":"ransomware.live history now needs a paid key.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["cyber-us-infrastructure"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"radar_us_anomaly","words":"Cloudflare Radar outage or attack anomaly for a US region","plain":"Cloudflare reports an outage or an attack spike in a US region","module":"pulse","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["cyber-us-infrastructure"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"ioda_us_state_outage","words":"IODA internet outage in a US state","plain":"A large internet outage in a US state","module":"pulse","kind":"event","state":"LIT","why":"Seen 34 times in the last 24 hours.","note":null,"confidence":"MODERATE","confidence_reason":"One source graded B2 or better.","fetched_at":"2025-11-20T09:25:00.000Z","scenarios":["cyber-us-infrastructure"],"findings":[{"id":"01KAG5VSV0TBAYE33RK49GABCE","label":null,"measure":"event","value":null,"bar":null,"lit":true,"ts":"2025-11-20T08:25:00.000Z"},{"id":"01KAG4KGS0HZSNVG07VW47JDDB","label":null,"measure":"event","value":null,"bar":null,"lit":true,"ts":"2025-11-20T08:03:00.000Z"},{"id":"01KAG01190TJXPZ0HBXPH45H8P","label":null,"measure":"event","value":null,"bar":null,"lit":true,"ts":"2025-11-20T06:43:00.000Z"},{"id":"01KAFYRR70M8X4SXKR46091M2W","label":null,"measure":"event","value":null,"bar":null,"lit":true,"ts":"2025-11-20T06:21:00.000Z"},{"id":"01KAFTZX10280RQNF3C4FW8WX3","label":null,"measure":"event","value":null,"bar":null,"lit":true,"ts":"2025-11-20T05:15:00.000Z"},{"id":"01KAFSSEJ0QTF5QGC4Z0V4MNDC","label":null,"measure":"event","value":null,"bar":null,"lit":true,"ts":"2025-11-20T04:54:00.000Z"},{"id":"01KAFNS900Y6WHNX0CGSV6MJ97","label":null,"measure":"event","value":null,"bar":null,"lit":true,"ts":"2025-11-20T03:44:00.000Z"},{"id":"01KAFN8SN0QXV889KYH2TSMR3K","label":null,"measure":"event","value":null,"bar":null,"lit":true,"ts":"2025-11-20T03:35:00.000Z"},{"id":"01KAFK3730E6VQKVV96RF9JXJ0","label":null,"measure":"event","value":null,"bar":null,"lit":true,"ts":"2025-11-20T02:57:00.000Z"},{"id":"01KAFJ9JS083XB4ES7H5A1SKS3","label":null,"measure":"event","value":null,"bar":null,"lit":true,"ts":"2025-11-20T02:43:00.000Z"}],"inputs":[{"type":"event","id":"01KAG5VSV0TBAYE33RK49GABCE","source":"ioda","ts":"2025-11-20T08:25:00.000Z","tags":["ioda:critical","ioda:us_state"],"url":"https://ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu/region/4414","source_url":"https://api.ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu/v2/outages/alerts?from=1763337600&until=1763942400&entityType=region&relatedTo=country%2FUS&limit=5000","fetched_at":"2025-11-20T09:25:00.000Z","raw_key":"ioda-us-regions-20251117.json"},{"type":"event","id":"01KAG4KGS0HZSNVG07VW47JDDB","source":"ioda","ts":"2025-11-20T08:03:00.000Z","tags":["ioda:critical","ioda:us_state"],"url":"https://ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu/region/4414","source_url":"https://api.ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu/v2/outages/alerts?from=1763337600&until=1763942400&entityType=region&relatedTo=country%2FUS&limit=5000","fetched_at":"2025-11-20T09:03:00.000Z","raw_key":"ioda-us-regions-20251117.json"},{"type":"event","id":"01KAG01190TJXPZ0HBXPH45H8P","source":"ioda","ts":"2025-11-20T06:43:00.000Z","tags":["ioda:critical","ioda:us_state"],"url":"https://ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu/region/4414","source_url":"https://api.ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu/v2/outages/alerts?from=1763337600&until=1763942400&entityType=region&relatedTo=country%2FUS&limit=5000","fetched_at":"2025-11-20T07:43:00.000Z","raw_key":"ioda-us-regions-20251117.json"},{"type":"event","id":"01KAFYRR70M8X4SXKR46091M2W","source":"ioda","ts":"2025-11-20T06:21:00.000Z","tags":["ioda:critical","ioda:us_state"],"url":"https://ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu/region/4414","source_url":"https://api.ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu/v2/outages/alerts?from=1763337600&until=1763942400&entityType=region&relatedTo=country%2FUS&limit=5000","fetched_at":"2025-11-20T07:21:00.000Z","raw_key":"ioda-us-regions-20251117.json"},{"type":"event","id":"01KAFTZX10280RQNF3C4FW8WX3","source":"ioda","ts":"2025-11-20T05:15:00.000Z","tags":["ioda:critical","ioda:us_state"],"url":"https://ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu/region/4414","source_url":"https://api.ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu/v2/outages/alerts?from=1763337600&until=1763942400&entityType=region&relatedTo=country%2FUS&limit=5000","fetched_at":"2025-11-20T06:15:00.000Z","raw_key":"ioda-us-regions-20251117.json"},{"type":"event","id":"01KAFSSEJ0QTF5QGC4Z0V4MNDC","source":"ioda","ts":"2025-11-20T04:54:00.000Z","tags":["ioda:critical","ioda:us_state"],"url":"https://ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu/region/4414","source_url":"https://api.ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu/v2/outages/alerts?from=1763337600&until=1763942400&entityType=region&relatedTo=country%2FUS&limit=5000","fetched_at":"2025-11-20T05:54:00.000Z","raw_key":"ioda-us-regions-20251117.json"},{"type":"event","id":"01KAFNS900Y6WHNX0CGSV6MJ97","source":"ioda","ts":"2025-11-20T03:44:00.000Z","tags":["ioda:critical","ioda:us_state"],"url":"https://ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu/region/4414","source_url":"https://api.ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu/v2/outages/alerts?from=1763337600&until=1763942400&entityType=region&relatedTo=country%2FUS&limit=5000","fetched_at":"2025-11-20T04:44:00.000Z","raw_key":"ioda-us-regions-20251117.json"},{"type":"event","id":"01KAFN8SN0QXV889KYH2TSMR3K","source":"ioda","ts":"2025-11-20T03:35:00.000Z","tags":["ioda:critical","ioda:us_state"],"url":"https://ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu/region/4414","source_url":"https://api.ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu/v2/outages/alerts?from=1763337600&until=1763942400&entityType=region&relatedTo=country%2FUS&limit=5000","fetched_at":"2025-11-20T04:35:00.000Z","raw_key":"ioda-us-regions-20251117.json"},{"type":"event","id":"01KAFK3730E6VQKVV96RF9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No mark yet.","note":"An editor sign, and no ACLED history was collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["domestic-instability"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"armed_demonstrations","words":"armed demonstrations over baseline (ACLED)","plain":"More armed demonstrations than normal","module":"pulse","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"An editor sign, and no ACLED history was collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["domestic-instability"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"refusal_to_certify","words":"a state or official refusing to certify a result or obey a court order","plain":"A state or an official refuses to certify a result or obey a court order","module":"homeland","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"An editor sign. 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No mark yet.","note":"An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["domestic-instability"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"tfr_state_capital","words":"TFR over a state capital","plain":"A new security flight restriction over a state capital","module":"sky","kind":"event","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"The FAA flight restrictions feed has not run yet.","note":"No FAA flight restriction archive was collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["domestic-instability","election-disruption"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"election_psa","words":"CISA or FBI election PSA","plain":"CISA or the FBI warns the public about a threat to an election","module":"homeland","kind":"any","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"CISA election advisory: the CISA advisories feed has not run yet. FBI warning, marked by an editor: needs an editor. 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No mark yet.","note":"An editor sign, and no election-office advisories were collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["election-disruption"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"certified_market_swing","words":"Kalshi or Polymarket odds swing over 15 points on a certified-result market","plain":"Betting odds on a certified election result swing 15 points or more in a day","module":"pulse","kind":"metric","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"No readings yet.","note":"No market on a certified election result was collected for any window, and no Kalshi history.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["election-disruption"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"us_protest_over_baseline","words":"GDELT US protest events over baseline","plain":"Far more protest news in the US than normal","module":"pulse","kind":"metric","state":"LIT","why":"Protest news in the US: far above normal, in the last 24 hours.","note":null,"confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"One source, graded C3.","fetched_at":"2025-11-20T04:00:00.000Z","scenarios":["election-disruption"],"findings":[{"key":"country:US","label":"Protest news in the US","measure":"z","value":4.388025602354432,"bar":4,"lit":true,"ts":"2025-11-20T03:45:00.000Z"}],"inputs":[{"type":"reading","db":"pulse","metric":"gdelt_country_protest","key":"country:US","ts":"2025-11-20T03:45:00.000Z","value":13,"z":4.388025602354432,"baseline":{"n":45,"mean":2.7147999016615043,"median":2.5,"mad":1,"method":"poisson_v1"},"source":"gdelt","source_url":"https://data.gdeltproject.org/gdeltv2/20251120034500.export.CSV.zip","fetched_at":"2025-11-20T04:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"20251120034500.export.CSV.zip"}]},{"sign_id":"etf_shock","words":"Defense or energy ETF move over 2 robust-z in a day","plain":"Defense or energy funds move far more than normal in a day","module":"money","kind":"metric","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"No readings yet.","note":"Fund prices need the owner's price key. Running prepare again with it can fill this sign.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["war-market-shock"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"money_cluster","words":"Follow the Money cluster alert","plain":"Three or more public filers report buying or selling the same watched stock in the same week","module":"money","kind":"alert","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"The House disclosure feed or the SEC Form 4 feed has not run yet.","note":"Follow the Money timing flags are not replayed in the backtest.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["war-market-shock"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"vix_over_baseline","words":"VIX over baseline","plain":"Stock market fear far above normal","module":"money","kind":"metric","state":"LIT","why":"Market fear (the VIX): far above normal twice in a row, in the last 3 days.","note":null,"confidence":"MODERATE","confidence_reason":"One source graded B2 or better.","fetched_at":"2025-11-20T05:00:00.000Z","scenarios":["war-market-shock"],"findings":[{"key":"VIXCLS","label":"Market fear (the 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unusual hour: no readings yet.","Betting odds on a US strike up 15 points or more in a day: no readings yet.","News about the target country turns far darker than normal: no readings yet.","A new security flight restriction over Washington, or executive jets flying far more than normal: security flight restriction over Washington: the FAA flight restrictions feed has not run yet. Executive jets: no readings yet."],"signs":[{"sign_id":"pentagon_ring","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"white_house_ring","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"tanker_surge","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"command_aircraft_offhours","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"strike_market_jump","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"target_tone_drop","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"dc_tfr_or_exec_aircraft","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1}],"source_url":"data/backtest/results.json","fetched_at":"2025-11-21T17:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"results.json"},{"scenario_id":"great-power-escalation","name":"Great-power escalation","lit":0,"not_lit":1,"not_evaluated":6,"total":7,"modules_lit":[],"counted":false,"reaches":"NORMAL","contribution":"NORMAL","elevated_at":3,"mayday_at":5,"weight_lit":0,"weight_total":7,"why":"0 of 7 signs lit. 6 not evaluated.","gaps":["Submarine positions.","Nuclear alert levels.","Diplomatic channels.","UKMTO warnings, Joint War Committee lists and UN Security Council sessions until an editor marks them.","Two credible outlets report nuclear bombers moved to other bases, or more submarines at sea: needs an editor. No mark yet.","An airborne command post flying at an unusual hour: no readings yet.","The State Department orders staff out of a country, or tells Americans not to travel to a G20 country: the State Department travel advisories feed has not run yet.","A warning to ships in a major strait: nGA navigational warning: the NGA navigational warnings feed has not run yet. UKMTO warning, marked by an editor: needs an editor. No mark yet.","Marine insurers add a sea area to their war risk list: needs an editor. No mark yet.","The UN Security Council holds an emergency session: needs an editor. No mark yet."],"signs":[{"sign_id":"bomber_sub_reports","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"command_aircraft_offhours","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"state_departure_or_level4","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"strait_warning","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"jwc_listed_area","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"oil_jump","state":"NOT LIT","weight":1},{"sign_id":"unsc_emergency","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1}],"source_url":"data/backtest/results.json","fetched_at":"2025-11-21T05:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"results.json"},{"scenario_id":"cyber-us-infrastructure","name":"Major cyber event on US infrastructure","lit":1,"not_lit":1,"not_evaluated":4,"total":6,"modules_lit":["pulse"],"counted":false,"reaches":"NORMAL","contribution":"NORMAL","elevated_at":3,"mayday_at":5,"weight_lit":1,"weight_total":6,"why":"1 of 6 signs lit, from 1 module. 4 not evaluated.","gaps":["Incidents not yet disclosed.","Classified attribution.","Private network telemetry.","Cloudflare Radar data until an editor marks it.","CISA gives federal agencies an emergency order about a threat: the CISA advisories feed has not run yet.","Far more US ransomware victims posted than normal: no readings yet.","Cloudflare reports an outage or an attack spike in a US region: needs an editor. No mark yet.","Food places near Fort Meade are at MAYDAY: not enough data in the last hour."],"signs":[{"sign_id":"cisa_emergency_directive","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"kev_over_baseline","state":"NOT LIT","weight":1},{"sign_id":"ransomware_us_over_baseline","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"radar_us_anomaly","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"ioda_us_state_outage","state":"LIT","weight":1},{"sign_id":"fort_meade_ring","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1}],"source_url":"data/backtest/results.json","fetched_at":"2025-11-21T06:08:00.000Z","raw_key":"results.json"},{"scenario_id":"domestic-instability","name":"Domestic instability","lit":0,"not_lit":0,"not_evaluated":6,"total":6,"modules_lit":[],"counted":false,"reaches":"NORMAL","contribution":"NORMAL","elevated_at":3,"mayday_at":5,"weight_lit":0,"weight_total":6,"why":"0 of 6 signs lit. 6 not evaluated.","gaps":["ACLED data until its keys exist.","Threats that never become a public charge.","Private talks between officials.","More threats or attacks on officials and judges than normal: needs an editor. No mark yet.","More armed demonstrations than normal: needs an editor. No mark yet.","A state or an official refuses to certify a result or obey a court order: needs an editor. No mark yet.","A governor, a general or a top police leader breaks with the federal government in public: needs an editor. No mark yet.","The National Guard deploys in a state over its governor's objection: needs an editor. No mark yet.","A new security flight restriction over a state capital: the FAA flight restrictions feed has not run yet."],"signs":[{"sign_id":"threats_on_officials","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"armed_demonstrations","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"refusal_to_certify","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"public_break","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"guard_over_objection","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"tfr_state_capital","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1}],"source_url":"data/backtest/results.json","fetched_at":"2025-11-21T17:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"results.json"},{"scenario_id":"election-disruption","name":"Election disruption","lit":1,"not_lit":0,"not_evaluated":4,"total":5,"modules_lit":["pulse"],"counted":false,"reaches":"NORMAL","contribution":"NORMAL","elevated_at":3,"mayday_at":4,"weight_lit":1,"weight_total":5,"why":"1 of 5 signs lit, from 1 module. 4 not evaluated.","gaps":["State election office notices until an editor marks them.","FBI announcements until an editor marks them.","Private threats to election workers.","CISA or the FBI warns the public about a threat to an election: cISA election advisory: the CISA advisories feed has not run yet. FBI warning, marked by an editor: needs an editor. No mark yet.","Election offices in 3 or more states post warnings: needs an editor. No mark yet.","Betting odds on a certified election result swing 15 points or more in a day: no readings yet.","A new security flight restriction over a state capital: the FAA flight restrictions feed has not run yet."],"signs":[{"sign_id":"election_psa","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"election_office_advisories","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"certified_market_swing","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"us_protest_over_baseline","state":"LIT","weight":1},{"sign_id":"tfr_state_capital","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1}],"source_url":"data/backtest/results.json","fetched_at":"2025-11-21T09:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"results.json"},{"scenario_id":"war-market-shock","name":"War-driven market shock","lit":1,"not_lit":0,"not_evaluated":4,"total":5,"modules_lit":["money"],"counted":false,"reaches":"NORMAL","contribution":"NORMAL","elevated_at":3,"mayday_at":4,"weight_lit":1,"weight_total":5,"why":"1 of 5 signs lit, from 1 module. 4 not evaluated.","gaps":["Trades not filed yet: members of Congress report up to 45 days late.","Private and off-exchange trading.","Joint War Committee lists until an editor marks them.","Defense or energy funds move far more than normal in a day: no readings yet.","Three or more public filers report buying or selling the same watched stock in the same week: the House disclosure feed or the SEC Form 4 feed has not run yet.","Marine insurers add a sea area to their war risk list: needs an editor. No mark yet.","Far more sanctions added than normal: no readings yet."],"signs":[{"sign_id":"etf_shock","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"money_cluster","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"vix_over_baseline","state":"LIT","weight":1},{"sign_id":"jwc_listed_area","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"sanctions_over_baseline","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1}],"source_url":"data/backtest/results.json","fetched_at":"2025-11-21T05:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"results.json"}],"signs":[{"sign_id":"pentagon_ring","words":"Pentagon ring MAYDAY","plain":"Food places near the Pentagon are at MAYDAY","module":"mayday","kind":"alert","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Not enough data in the last hour.","note":"The Mayday Index has no history before launch.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["us-strike-abroad"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"white_house_ring","words":"White House ring MAYDAY","plain":"Food places near the White House are at MAYDAY","module":"mayday","kind":"alert","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Not enough data in the last hour.","note":"The Mayday Index has no history before launch.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["us-strike-abroad"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"tanker_surge","words":"tanker surge over a region","plain":"Far more tanker planes than normal over one region","module":"sky","kind":"metric","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"No readings yet.","note":"ADS-B archives run to gigabytes a day, so no flight history was collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["us-strike-abroad"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"command_aircraft_offhours","words":"E-4B or E-6B airborne off-hours","plain":"An airborne command post flying at an unusual hour","module":"sky","kind":"metric","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"No readings yet.","note":"ADS-B archives run to gigabytes a day, so no flight history was collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["us-strike-abroad","great-power-escalation"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"strike_market_jump","words":"Kalshi or Polymarket strike market up 15 points in 24 h","plain":"Betting odds on a US strike up 15 points or more in a day","module":"pulse","kind":"metric","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"No readings yet.","note":"No strike market was found that traded that week, so the strike market sign has no series and no country is a strike target for the tone sign. Both are NOT EVALUATED.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["us-strike-abroad"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"target_tone_drop","words":"GDELT tone drop for the target country","plain":"News about the target country turns far darker than normal","module":"pulse","kind":"metric","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"No readings yet.","note":"No strike market was found that traded that week, so the strike market sign has no series and no country is a strike target for the tone sign. Both are NOT EVALUATED.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["us-strike-abroad"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"dc_tfr_or_exec_aircraft","words":"DC TFR or executive aircraft moving","plain":"A new security flight restriction over Washington, or executive jets flying far more than normal","module":"sky","kind":"any","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Security flight restriction over Washington: the FAA flight restrictions feed has not run yet. Executive jets: no readings yet.","note":"No FAA flight restriction archive and no flight history were collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["us-strike-abroad"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"bomber_sub_reports","words":"Nuclear-capable bombers dispersed or a submarine surge, reported by two credible outlets","plain":"Two credible outlets report nuclear bombers moved to other bases, or more submarines at sea","module":"sky","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["great-power-escalation"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"state_departure_or_level4","words":"State Department ordered departure or Level 4 for a G20 country","plain":"The State Department orders staff out of a country, or tells Americans not to travel to a G20 country","module":"pulse","kind":"event","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"The State Department travel advisories feed has not run yet.","note":"No history of State Department travel advisories was collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["great-power-escalation"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"strait_warning","words":"NAVAREA or UKMTO warning in a major strait","plain":"A warning to ships in a major strait","module":"sky","kind":"any","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"NGA navigational warning: the NGA navigational warnings feed has not run yet. UKMTO warning, marked by an editor: needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"No history of NGA warnings to ships was collected, and the editor part needs an editor mark.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["great-power-escalation"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"jwc_listed_area","words":"Joint War Committee adds a listed area","plain":"Marine insurers add a sea area to their war risk list","module":"money","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"An editor sign, and no Joint War Committee lists were collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["great-power-escalation","war-market-shock"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"oil_jump","words":"oil up 8% or more in a day","plain":"Oil prices up 8% or more in a day","module":"money","kind":"metric","state":"NOT LIT","why":"No move of 8% or more from the day before.","note":null,"confidence":"MODERATE","confidence_reason":"One source graded B2 or better.","fetched_at":"2025-11-21T05:00:00.000Z","scenarios":["great-power-escalation"],"findings":[{"key":"DCOILWTICO","label":"Oil","measure":"change","value":-0.33184,"bar":8,"lit":false,"ts":"2025-11-20T00:00:00.000Z"}],"inputs":[{"type":"reading","db":"core","metric":"oil_wti","key":"DCOILWTICO","ts":"2025-11-19T00:00:00.000Z","value":60.27,"z":null,"baseline":null,"source":"fred","source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=DCOILWTICO","fetched_at":"2025-11-20T05:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"dcoilwtico.csv"},{"type":"reading","db":"core","metric":"oil_wti","key":"DCOILWTICO","ts":"2025-11-20T00:00:00.000Z","value":60.07,"z":null,"baseline":null,"source":"fred","source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=DCOILWTICO","fetched_at":"2025-11-21T05:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"dcoilwtico.csv"}]},{"sign_id":"unsc_emergency","words":"emergency UN Security Council session","plain":"The UN Security Council holds an emergency session","module":"pulse","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["great-power-escalation"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"cisa_emergency_directive","words":"New CISA emergency directive","plain":"CISA gives federal agencies an emergency order about a threat","module":"homeland","kind":"event","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"The CISA advisories feed has not run yet.","note":"No history of CISA advisories was collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["cyber-us-infrastructure"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"kev_over_baseline","words":"KEV adds over baseline","plain":"Far more actively exploited flaws than normal added to CISA's list","module":"homeland","kind":"metric","state":"NOT LIT","why":"Within the normal range for this time of week.","note":null,"confidence":"MODERATE","confidence_reason":"One source graded B2 or better.","fetched_at":"2025-11-21T05:00:00.000Z","scenarios":["cyber-us-infrastructure"],"findings":[{"key":"US","label":"Flaws added to CISA's list","measure":"z","value":-8,"bar":3,"lit":false,"ts":"2025-11-20T00:00:00.000Z"}],"inputs":[{"type":"reading","db":"core","metric":"kev_adds","key":"US","ts":"2025-11-20T00:00:00.000Z","value":0,"z":-8,"baseline":{"n":192,"mean":0.6502318272065072,"median":0,"mad":0,"method":"poisson_v1"},"source":"cisa_kev","source_url":"https://www.cisa.gov/sites/default/files/feeds/known_exploited_vulnerabilities.json","fetched_at":"2025-11-21T05:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"kev.json"}]},{"sign_id":"ransomware_us_over_baseline","words":"ransomware.live US victims over baseline","plain":"Far more US ransomware victims posted than normal","module":"homeland","kind":"metric","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"No readings yet.","note":"ransomware.live history now needs a paid key.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["cyber-us-infrastructure"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"radar_us_anomaly","words":"Cloudflare Radar outage or attack anomaly for a US region","plain":"Cloudflare reports an outage or an attack spike in a US region","module":"pulse","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["cyber-us-infrastructure"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"ioda_us_state_outage","words":"IODA internet outage in a US state","plain":"A large internet outage in a US state","module":"pulse","kind":"event","state":"LIT","why":"Seen 2 times in the last 24 hours.","note":null,"confidence":"MODERATE","confidence_reason":"One source graded B2 or better.","fetched_at":"2025-11-21T06:08:00.000Z","scenarios":["cyber-us-infrastructure"],"findings":[{"id":"01KAJCZSW00SEJ4TTT1VZD44HV","label":null,"measure":"event","value":null,"bar":null,"lit":true,"ts":"2025-11-21T05:08:00.000Z"},{"id":"01KAJCZSW0S23VGVM4DRDNQPPD","label":null,"measure":"event","value":null,"bar":null,"lit":true,"ts":"2025-11-21T05:08:00.000Z"}],"inputs":[{"type":"event","id":"01KAJCZSW00SEJ4TTT1VZD44HV","source":"ioda","ts":"2025-11-21T05:08:00.000Z","tags":["ioda:critical","ioda:us_state"],"url":"https://ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu/region/4415","source_url":"https://api.ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu/v2/outages/alerts?from=1763337600&until=1763942400&entityType=region&relatedTo=country%2FUS&limit=5000","fetched_at":"2025-11-21T06:08:00.000Z","raw_key":"ioda-us-regions-20251117.json"},{"type":"event","id":"01KAJCZSW0S23VGVM4DRDNQPPD","source":"ioda","ts":"2025-11-21T05:08:00.000Z","tags":["ioda:critical","ioda:us_state"],"url":"https://ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu/region/4431","source_url":"https://api.ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu/v2/outages/alerts?from=1763337600&until=1763942400&entityType=region&relatedTo=country%2FUS&limit=5000","fetched_at":"2025-11-21T06:08:00.000Z","raw_key":"ioda-us-regions-20251117.json"}]},{"sign_id":"fort_meade_ring","words":"Fort Meade ring MAYDAY","plain":"Food places near Fort Meade are at MAYDAY","module":"mayday","kind":"alert","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Not enough data in the last hour.","note":"The Mayday Index has no history before launch.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["cyber-us-infrastructure"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"threats_on_officials","words":"Threats or attacks on officials and judges over baseline (ACLED, DOJ charges)","plain":"More threats or attacks on officials and judges than normal","module":"homeland","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"An editor sign, and no ACLED history was collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["domestic-instability"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"armed_demonstrations","words":"armed demonstrations over baseline (ACLED)","plain":"More armed demonstrations than normal","module":"pulse","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"An editor sign, and no ACLED history was collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["domestic-instability"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"refusal_to_certify","words":"a state or official refusing to certify a result or obey a court order","plain":"A state or an official refuses to certify a result or obey a court order","module":"homeland","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["domestic-instability"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"public_break","words":"a public break with the federal government by a governor, general or senior law enforcement leader","plain":"A governor, a general or a top police leader breaks with the federal government in public","module":"homeland","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["domestic-instability"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"guard_over_objection","words":"National Guard deployed over a governor's objection","plain":"The National Guard deploys in a state over its governor's objection","module":"homeland","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["domestic-instability"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"tfr_state_capital","words":"TFR over a state capital","plain":"A new security flight restriction over a state capital","module":"sky","kind":"event","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"The FAA flight restrictions feed has not run yet.","note":"No FAA flight restriction archive was collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["domestic-instability","election-disruption"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"election_psa","words":"CISA or FBI election PSA","plain":"CISA or the FBI warns the public about a threat to an election","module":"homeland","kind":"any","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"CISA election advisory: the CISA advisories feed has not run yet. FBI warning, marked by an editor: needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"No history of CISA advisories was collected, and the editor part needs an editor mark.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["election-disruption"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"election_office_advisories","words":"election-office advisories in 3 or more states","plain":"Election offices in 3 or more states post warnings","module":"homeland","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"An editor sign, and no election-office advisories were collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["election-disruption"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"certified_market_swing","words":"Kalshi or Polymarket odds swing over 15 points on a certified-result market","plain":"Betting odds on a certified election result swing 15 points or more in a day","module":"pulse","kind":"metric","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"No readings yet.","note":"No market on a certified election result was collected for any window, and no Kalshi history.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["election-disruption"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"us_protest_over_baseline","words":"GDELT US protest events over baseline","plain":"Far more protest news in the US than normal","module":"pulse","kind":"metric","state":"LIT","why":"Protest news in the US: far above normal, in the last 24 hours.","note":null,"confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"One source, graded C3.","fetched_at":"2025-11-21T09:00:00.000Z","scenarios":["election-disruption"],"findings":[{"key":"country:US","label":"Protest news in the US","measure":"z","value":4.0697756754263255,"bar":4,"lit":true,"ts":"2025-11-21T08:45:00.000Z"}],"inputs":[{"type":"reading","db":"pulse","metric":"gdelt_country_protest","key":"country:US","ts":"2025-11-21T08:45:00.000Z","value":10,"z":4.0697756754263255,"baseline":{"n":40,"mean":1.8421141414704,"median":1.5,"mad":1,"method":"poisson_v1"},"source":"gdelt","source_url":"https://data.gdeltproject.org/gdeltv2/20251121084500.export.CSV.zip","fetched_at":"2025-11-21T09:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"20251121084500.export.CSV.zip"}]},{"sign_id":"etf_shock","words":"Defense or energy ETF move over 2 robust-z in a day","plain":"Defense or energy funds move far more than normal in a day","module":"money","kind":"metric","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"No readings yet.","note":"Fund prices need the owner's price key. Running prepare again with it can fill this sign.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["war-market-shock"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"money_cluster","words":"Follow the Money cluster alert","plain":"Three or more public filers report buying or selling the same watched stock in the same week","module":"money","kind":"alert","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"The House disclosure feed or the SEC Form 4 feed has not run yet.","note":"Follow the Money timing flags are not replayed in the backtest.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["war-market-shock"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"vix_over_baseline","words":"VIX over baseline","plain":"Stock market fear far above normal","module":"money","kind":"metric","state":"LIT","why":"Market fear (the VIX): far above normal, in the last 3 days.","note":null,"confidence":"MODERATE","confidence_reason":"One source graded B2 or better.","fetched_at":"2025-11-21T05:00:00.000Z","scenarios":["war-market-shock"],"findings":[{"key":"VIXCLS","label":"Market fear (the VIX)","measure":"z","value":5.339791666666662,"bar":4,"lit":true,"ts":"2025-11-20T00:00:00.000Z"}],"inputs":[{"type":"reading","db":"core","metric":"vix","key":"VIXCLS","ts":"2025-11-20T00:00:00.000Z","value":26.42,"z":5.339791666666662,"baseline":{"n":138,"mean":17.786478792597954,"median":16.92,"mad":1.200000000000001,"method":"robust_z_v1"},"source":"fred","source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=VIXCLS","fetched_at":"2025-11-21T05:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"vixcls.csv"}]},{"sign_id":"sanctions_over_baseline","words":"sanctions adds over baseline","plain":"Far more sanctions added than normal","module":"pulse","kind":"metric","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"No readings yet.","note":"No history of the OFAC sanctions list was collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["war-market-shock"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]}],"series":[{"db":"pulse","metric":"gdelt_country_protest","key":"country:US","source":"gdelt","label":null,"tags":[],"readings_known":5856,"first_ts":"2025-09-21T17:00:00.000Z","latest":{"ts":"2025-11-21T16:45:00.000Z","value":2,"source_url":"https://data.gdeltproject.org/gdeltv2/20251121164500.export.CSV.zip","fetched_at":"2025-11-21T17:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"20251121164500.export.CSV.zip"},"baseline":{"as_of":"2025-11-21T07:00:00.000Z","pool":"slot","n":40,"warm":true}},{"db":"core","metric":"vix","key":"VIXCLS","source":"fred","label":null,"tags":[],"readings_known":138,"first_ts":"2025-05-13T00:00:00.000Z","latest":{"ts":"2025-11-20T00:00:00.000Z","value":26.42,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=VIXCLS","fetched_at":"2025-11-21T05:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"vixcls.csv"},"baseline":{"as_of":"2025-11-21T07:00:00.000Z","pool":"all_days","n":138,"warm":true}},{"db":"core","metric":"oil_wti","key":"DCOILWTICO","source":"fred","label":null,"tags":[],"readings_known":132,"first_ts":"2025-05-13T00:00:00.000Z","latest":{"ts":"2025-11-20T00:00:00.000Z","value":60.07,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=DCOILWTICO","fetched_at":"2025-11-21T05:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"dcoilwtico.csv"},"baseline":null},{"db":"core","metric":"kev_adds","key":"US","source":"cisa_kev","label":null,"tags":[],"readings_known":192,"first_ts":"2025-05-13T00:00:00.000Z","latest":{"ts":"2025-11-20T00:00:00.000Z","value":0,"source_url":"https://www.cisa.gov/sites/default/files/feeds/known_exploited_vulnerabilities.json","fetched_at":"2025-11-21T05:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"kev.json"},"baseline":{"as_of":"2025-11-21T07:00:00.000Z","pool":"all_days","n":192,"warm":true}}],"events":[{"source":"ioda","known":134}],"sources":[{"source":"ioda","last_ok_at":"2025-11-21T17:00:00.000Z","status":"ok","source_url":"https://api.ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu/v2/outages/alerts?from=1763337600&until=1763942400&entityType=region&relatedTo=country%2FUS&limit=5000","fetched_at":"2025-11-21T17:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"ioda-us-regions-20251117.json"}]},{"evaluate_at":"2025-11-22T17:00:00.000Z","local_time":"2025-11-22T12:00","zone":"America/New_York","baseline_as_of":"2025-11-22T07:00:00.000Z","status_line":{"evaluated_at":"2025-11-22T17:00:00.000Z","status":"NORMAL","rule_status":"NORMAL","held":false,"sentence":"No scenario has enough signs lit.","rule":"none","produced_by":{"alerts":[],"scenarios":[]},"version":"replay-1+692c1e40db38971c","source_url":"data/backtest/results.json","fetched_at":"2025-11-22T17:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"results.json"},"scenarios":[{"scenario_id":"us-strike-abroad","name":"US military strike abroad","lit":0,"not_lit":0,"not_evaluated":7,"total":7,"modules_lit":[],"counted":false,"reaches":"NORMAL","contribution":"NORMAL","elevated_at":4,"mayday_at":6,"weight_lit":0,"weight_total":7,"why":"0 of 7 signs lit. 7 not evaluated.","gaps":["Classified movements and orders.","Aircraft that fly without ADS-B or with blocked positions.","Encrypted communications.","Anything that is not on a public feed.","Food places near the Pentagon are at MAYDAY: not enough data in the last hour.","Food places near the White House are at MAYDAY: not enough data in the last hour.","Far more tanker planes than normal over one region: no readings yet.","An airborne command post flying at an unusual hour: no readings yet.","Betting odds on a US strike up 15 points or more in a day: no readings yet.","News about the target country turns far darker than normal: no readings yet.","A new security flight restriction over Washington, or executive jets flying far more than normal: security flight restriction over Washington: the FAA flight restrictions feed has not run yet. Executive jets: no readings yet."],"signs":[{"sign_id":"pentagon_ring","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"white_house_ring","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"tanker_surge","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"command_aircraft_offhours","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"strike_market_jump","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"target_tone_drop","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"dc_tfr_or_exec_aircraft","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1}],"source_url":"data/backtest/results.json","fetched_at":"2025-11-22T17:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"results.json"},{"scenario_id":"great-power-escalation","name":"Great-power escalation","lit":0,"not_lit":1,"not_evaluated":6,"total":7,"modules_lit":[],"counted":false,"reaches":"NORMAL","contribution":"NORMAL","elevated_at":3,"mayday_at":5,"weight_lit":0,"weight_total":7,"why":"0 of 7 signs lit. 6 not evaluated.","gaps":["Submarine positions.","Nuclear alert levels.","Diplomatic channels.","UKMTO warnings, Joint War Committee lists and UN Security Council sessions until an editor marks them.","Two credible outlets report nuclear bombers moved to other bases, or more submarines at sea: needs an editor. No mark yet.","An airborne command post flying at an unusual hour: no readings yet.","The State Department orders staff out of a country, or tells Americans not to travel to a G20 country: the State Department travel advisories feed has not run yet.","A warning to ships in a major strait: nGA navigational warning: the NGA navigational warnings feed has not run yet. UKMTO warning, marked by an editor: needs an editor. No mark yet.","Marine insurers add a sea area to their war risk list: needs an editor. No mark yet.","The UN Security Council holds an emergency session: needs an editor. No mark yet."],"signs":[{"sign_id":"bomber_sub_reports","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"command_aircraft_offhours","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"state_departure_or_level4","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"strait_warning","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"jwc_listed_area","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"oil_jump","state":"NOT LIT","weight":1},{"sign_id":"unsc_emergency","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1}],"source_url":"data/backtest/results.json","fetched_at":"2025-11-22T05:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"results.json"},{"scenario_id":"cyber-us-infrastructure","name":"Major cyber event on US infrastructure","lit":1,"not_lit":1,"not_evaluated":4,"total":6,"modules_lit":["pulse"],"counted":false,"reaches":"NORMAL","contribution":"NORMAL","elevated_at":3,"mayday_at":5,"weight_lit":1,"weight_total":6,"why":"1 of 6 signs lit, from 1 module. 4 not evaluated.","gaps":["Incidents not yet disclosed.","Classified attribution.","Private network telemetry.","Cloudflare Radar data until an editor marks it.","CISA gives federal agencies an emergency order about a threat: the CISA advisories feed has not run yet.","Far more US ransomware victims posted than normal: no readings yet.","Cloudflare reports an outage or an attack spike in a US region: needs an editor. No mark yet.","Food places near Fort Meade are at MAYDAY: not enough data in the last hour."],"signs":[{"sign_id":"cisa_emergency_directive","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"kev_over_baseline","state":"NOT LIT","weight":1},{"sign_id":"ransomware_us_over_baseline","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"radar_us_anomaly","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"ioda_us_state_outage","state":"LIT","weight":1},{"sign_id":"fort_meade_ring","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1}],"source_url":"data/backtest/results.json","fetched_at":"2025-11-22T07:10:00.000Z","raw_key":"results.json"},{"scenario_id":"domestic-instability","name":"Domestic instability","lit":0,"not_lit":0,"not_evaluated":6,"total":6,"modules_lit":[],"counted":false,"reaches":"NORMAL","contribution":"NORMAL","elevated_at":3,"mayday_at":5,"weight_lit":0,"weight_total":6,"why":"0 of 6 signs lit. 6 not evaluated.","gaps":["ACLED data until its keys exist.","Threats that never become a public charge.","Private talks between officials.","More threats or attacks on officials and judges than normal: needs an editor. No mark yet.","More armed demonstrations than normal: needs an editor. No mark yet.","A state or an official refuses to certify a result or obey a court order: needs an editor. No mark yet.","A governor, a general or a top police leader breaks with the federal government in public: needs an editor. No mark yet.","The National Guard deploys in a state over its governor's objection: needs an editor. No mark yet.","A new security flight restriction over a state capital: the FAA flight restrictions feed has not run yet."],"signs":[{"sign_id":"threats_on_officials","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"armed_demonstrations","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"refusal_to_certify","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"public_break","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"guard_over_objection","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"tfr_state_capital","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1}],"source_url":"data/backtest/results.json","fetched_at":"2025-11-22T17:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"results.json"},{"scenario_id":"election-disruption","name":"Election disruption","lit":0,"not_lit":1,"not_evaluated":4,"total":5,"modules_lit":[],"counted":false,"reaches":"NORMAL","contribution":"NORMAL","elevated_at":3,"mayday_at":4,"weight_lit":0,"weight_total":5,"why":"0 of 5 signs lit. 4 not evaluated.","gaps":["State election office notices until an editor marks them.","FBI announcements until an editor marks them.","Private threats to election workers.","CISA or the FBI warns the public about a threat to an election: cISA election advisory: the CISA advisories feed has not run yet. FBI warning, marked by an editor: needs an editor. No mark yet.","Election offices in 3 or more states post warnings: needs an editor. No mark yet.","Betting odds on a certified election result swing 15 points or more in a day: no readings yet.","A new security flight restriction over a state capital: the FAA flight restrictions feed has not run yet."],"signs":[{"sign_id":"election_psa","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"election_office_advisories","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"certified_market_swing","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"us_protest_over_baseline","state":"NOT LIT","weight":1},{"sign_id":"tfr_state_capital","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1}],"source_url":"data/backtest/results.json","fetched_at":"2025-11-22T17:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"results.json"},{"scenario_id":"war-market-shock","name":"War-driven market shock","lit":1,"not_lit":0,"not_evaluated":4,"total":5,"modules_lit":["money"],"counted":false,"reaches":"NORMAL","contribution":"NORMAL","elevated_at":3,"mayday_at":4,"weight_lit":1,"weight_total":5,"why":"1 of 5 signs lit, from 1 module. 4 not evaluated.","gaps":["Trades not filed yet: members of Congress report up to 45 days late.","Private and off-exchange trading.","Joint War Committee lists until an editor marks them.","Defense or energy funds move far more than normal in a day: no readings yet.","Three or more public filers report buying or selling the same watched stock in the same week: the House disclosure feed or the SEC Form 4 feed has not run yet.","Marine insurers add a sea area to their war risk list: needs an editor. No mark yet.","Far more sanctions added than normal: no readings yet."],"signs":[{"sign_id":"etf_shock","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"money_cluster","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"vix_over_baseline","state":"LIT","weight":1},{"sign_id":"jwc_listed_area","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"sanctions_over_baseline","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1}],"source_url":"data/backtest/results.json","fetched_at":"2025-11-22T05:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"results.json"}],"signs":[{"sign_id":"pentagon_ring","words":"Pentagon ring MAYDAY","plain":"Food places near the Pentagon are at MAYDAY","module":"mayday","kind":"alert","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Not enough data in the last hour.","note":"The Mayday Index has no history before launch.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["us-strike-abroad"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"white_house_ring","words":"White House ring MAYDAY","plain":"Food places near the White House are at MAYDAY","module":"mayday","kind":"alert","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Not enough data in the last hour.","note":"The Mayday Index has no history before launch.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["us-strike-abroad"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"tanker_surge","words":"tanker surge over a region","plain":"Far more tanker planes than normal over one region","module":"sky","kind":"metric","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"No readings yet.","note":"ADS-B archives run to gigabytes a day, so no flight history was collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["us-strike-abroad"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"command_aircraft_offhours","words":"E-4B or E-6B airborne off-hours","plain":"An airborne command post flying at an unusual hour","module":"sky","kind":"metric","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"No readings yet.","note":"ADS-B archives run to gigabytes a day, so no flight history was collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["us-strike-abroad","great-power-escalation"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"strike_market_jump","words":"Kalshi or Polymarket strike market up 15 points in 24 h","plain":"Betting odds on a US strike up 15 points or more in a day","module":"pulse","kind":"metric","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"No readings yet.","note":"No strike market was found that traded that week, so the strike market sign has no series and no country is a strike target for the tone sign. Both are NOT EVALUATED.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["us-strike-abroad"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"target_tone_drop","words":"GDELT tone drop for the target country","plain":"News about the target country turns far darker than normal","module":"pulse","kind":"metric","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"No readings yet.","note":"No strike market was found that traded that week, so the strike market sign has no series and no country is a strike target for the tone sign. Both are NOT EVALUATED.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["us-strike-abroad"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"dc_tfr_or_exec_aircraft","words":"DC TFR or executive aircraft moving","plain":"A new security flight restriction over Washington, or executive jets flying far more than normal","module":"sky","kind":"any","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Security flight restriction over Washington: the FAA flight restrictions feed has not run yet. Executive jets: no readings yet.","note":"No FAA flight restriction archive and no flight history were collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["us-strike-abroad"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"bomber_sub_reports","words":"Nuclear-capable bombers dispersed or a submarine surge, reported by two credible outlets","plain":"Two credible outlets report nuclear bombers moved to other bases, or more submarines at sea","module":"sky","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["great-power-escalation"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"state_departure_or_level4","words":"State Department ordered departure or Level 4 for a G20 country","plain":"The State Department orders staff out of a country, or tells Americans not to travel to a G20 country","module":"pulse","kind":"event","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"The State Department travel advisories feed has not run yet.","note":"No history of State Department travel advisories was collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["great-power-escalation"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"strait_warning","words":"NAVAREA or UKMTO warning in a major strait","plain":"A warning to ships in a major strait","module":"sky","kind":"any","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"NGA navigational warning: the NGA navigational warnings feed has not run yet. UKMTO warning, marked by an editor: needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"No history of NGA warnings to ships was collected, and the editor part needs an editor mark.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["great-power-escalation"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"jwc_listed_area","words":"Joint War Committee adds a listed area","plain":"Marine insurers add a sea area to their war risk list","module":"money","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"An editor sign, and no Joint War Committee lists were collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["great-power-escalation","war-market-shock"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"oil_jump","words":"oil up 8% or more in a day","plain":"Oil prices up 8% or more in a day","module":"money","kind":"metric","state":"NOT LIT","why":"No move of 8% or more from the day before.","note":null,"confidence":"MODERATE","confidence_reason":"One source graded B2 or better.","fetched_at":"2025-11-22T05:00:00.000Z","scenarios":["great-power-escalation"],"findings":[{"key":"DCOILWTICO","label":"Oil","measure":"change","value":-2.014317,"bar":8,"lit":false,"ts":"2025-11-21T00:00:00.000Z"}],"inputs":[{"type":"reading","db":"core","metric":"oil_wti","key":"DCOILWTICO","ts":"2025-11-20T00:00:00.000Z","value":60.07,"z":null,"baseline":null,"source":"fred","source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=DCOILWTICO","fetched_at":"2025-11-21T05:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"dcoilwtico.csv"},{"type":"reading","db":"core","metric":"oil_wti","key":"DCOILWTICO","ts":"2025-11-21T00:00:00.000Z","value":58.86,"z":null,"baseline":null,"source":"fred","source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=DCOILWTICO","fetched_at":"2025-11-22T05:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"dcoilwtico.csv"}]},{"sign_id":"unsc_emergency","words":"emergency UN Security Council session","plain":"The UN Security Council holds an emergency session","module":"pulse","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["great-power-escalation"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"cisa_emergency_directive","words":"New CISA emergency directive","plain":"CISA gives federal agencies an emergency order about a threat","module":"homeland","kind":"event","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"The CISA advisories feed has not run yet.","note":"No history of CISA advisories was collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["cyber-us-infrastructure"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"kev_over_baseline","words":"KEV adds over baseline","plain":"Far more actively exploited flaws than normal added to CISA's list","module":"homeland","kind":"metric","state":"NOT LIT","why":"Within the normal range for this time of week.","note":null,"confidence":"MODERATE","confidence_reason":"One source graded B2 or better.","fetched_at":"2025-11-22T05:00:00.000Z","scenarios":["cyber-us-infrastructure"],"findings":[{"key":"US","label":"Flaws added to CISA's list","measure":"z","value":0.04879374880312953,"bar":3,"lit":false,"ts":"2025-11-21T00:00:00.000Z"}],"inputs":[{"type":"reading","db":"core","metric":"kev_adds","key":"US","ts":"2025-11-21T00:00:00.000Z","value":1,"z":0.04879374880312953,"baseline":{"n":193,"mean":0.6549689952412333,"median":0,"mad":0,"method":"poisson_v1"},"source":"cisa_kev","source_url":"https://www.cisa.gov/sites/default/files/feeds/known_exploited_vulnerabilities.json","fetched_at":"2025-11-22T05:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"kev.json"}]},{"sign_id":"ransomware_us_over_baseline","words":"ransomware.live US victims over baseline","plain":"Far more US ransomware victims posted than normal","module":"homeland","kind":"metric","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"No readings yet.","note":"ransomware.live history now needs a paid key.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["cyber-us-infrastructure"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"radar_us_anomaly","words":"Cloudflare Radar outage or attack anomaly for a US region","plain":"Cloudflare reports an outage or an attack spike in a US region","module":"pulse","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["cyber-us-infrastructure"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"ioda_us_state_outage","words":"IODA internet outage in a US state","plain":"A large internet outage in a US state","module":"pulse","kind":"event","state":"LIT","why":"Seen 2 times in the last 24 hours.","note":null,"confidence":"MODERATE","confidence_reason":"One source graded B2 or better.","fetched_at":"2025-11-22T07:10:00.000Z","scenarios":["cyber-us-infrastructure"],"findings":[{"id":"01KAN2Y1P01X0BY4CWJ0B81XT6","label":null,"measure":"event","value":null,"bar":null,"lit":true,"ts":"2025-11-22T06:10:00.000Z"},{"id":"01KAMDMWT0PK2K8W3X1CFF2F9M","label":null,"measure":"event","value":null,"bar":null,"lit":true,"ts":"2025-11-21T23:58:00.000Z"}],"inputs":[{"type":"event","id":"01KAN2Y1P01X0BY4CWJ0B81XT6","source":"ioda","ts":"2025-11-22T06:10:00.000Z","tags":["ioda:critical","ioda:us_state"],"url":"https://ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu/region/4413","source_url":"https://api.ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu/v2/outages/alerts?from=1763337600&until=1763942400&entityType=region&relatedTo=country%2FUS&limit=5000","fetched_at":"2025-11-22T07:10:00.000Z","raw_key":"ioda-us-regions-20251117.json"},{"type":"event","id":"01KAMDMWT0PK2K8W3X1CFF2F9M","source":"ioda","ts":"2025-11-21T23:58:00.000Z","tags":["ioda:critical","ioda:us_state"],"url":"https://ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu/region/4415","source_url":"https://api.ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu/v2/outages/alerts?from=1763337600&until=1763942400&entityType=region&relatedTo=country%2FUS&limit=5000","fetched_at":"2025-11-22T00:58:00.000Z","raw_key":"ioda-us-regions-20251117.json"}]},{"sign_id":"fort_meade_ring","words":"Fort Meade ring MAYDAY","plain":"Food places near Fort Meade are at MAYDAY","module":"mayday","kind":"alert","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Not enough data in the last hour.","note":"The Mayday Index has no history before launch.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["cyber-us-infrastructure"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"threats_on_officials","words":"Threats or attacks on officials and judges over baseline (ACLED, DOJ charges)","plain":"More threats or attacks on officials and judges than normal","module":"homeland","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"An editor sign, and no ACLED history was collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["domestic-instability"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"armed_demonstrations","words":"armed demonstrations over baseline (ACLED)","plain":"More armed demonstrations than normal","module":"pulse","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"An editor sign, and no ACLED history was collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["domestic-instability"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"refusal_to_certify","words":"a state or official refusing to certify a result or obey a court order","plain":"A state or an official refuses to certify a result or obey a court order","module":"homeland","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["domestic-instability"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"public_break","words":"a public break with the federal government by a governor, general or senior law enforcement leader","plain":"A governor, a general or a top police leader breaks with the federal government in public","module":"homeland","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["domestic-instability"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"guard_over_objection","words":"National Guard deployed over a governor's objection","plain":"The National Guard deploys in a state over its governor's objection","module":"homeland","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["domestic-instability"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"tfr_state_capital","words":"TFR over a state capital","plain":"A new security flight restriction over a state capital","module":"sky","kind":"event","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"The FAA flight restrictions feed has not run yet.","note":"No FAA flight restriction archive was collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["domestic-instability","election-disruption"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"election_psa","words":"CISA or FBI election PSA","plain":"CISA or the FBI warns the public about a threat to an election","module":"homeland","kind":"any","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"CISA election advisory: the CISA advisories feed has not run yet. FBI warning, marked by an editor: needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"No history of CISA advisories was collected, and the editor part needs an editor mark.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["election-disruption"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"election_office_advisories","words":"election-office advisories in 3 or more states","plain":"Election offices in 3 or more states post warnings","module":"homeland","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"An editor sign, and no election-office advisories were collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["election-disruption"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"certified_market_swing","words":"Kalshi or Polymarket odds swing over 15 points on a certified-result market","plain":"Betting odds on a certified election result swing 15 points or more in a day","module":"pulse","kind":"metric","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"No readings yet.","note":"No market on a certified election result was collected for any window, and no Kalshi history.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["election-disruption"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"us_protest_over_baseline","words":"GDELT US protest events over baseline","plain":"Far more protest news in the US than normal","module":"pulse","kind":"metric","state":"NOT LIT","why":"Within the normal range for this time of week.","note":null,"confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"One source, graded C3.","fetched_at":"2025-11-22T17:00:00.000Z","scenarios":["election-disruption"],"findings":[{"key":"country:US","label":"Protest news in the US","measure":"z","value":-8,"bar":3,"lit":false,"ts":"2025-11-22T16:45:00.000Z"}],"inputs":[{"type":"reading","db":"pulse","metric":"gdelt_country_protest","key":"country:US","ts":"2025-11-22T16:45:00.000Z","value":0,"z":-8,"baseline":{"n":40,"mean":3.841716863923005,"median":2,"mad":1.5,"method":"poisson_v1"},"source":"gdelt","source_url":"https://data.gdeltproject.org/gdeltv2/20251122164500.export.CSV.zip","fetched_at":"2025-11-22T17:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"20251122164500.export.CSV.zip"}]},{"sign_id":"etf_shock","words":"Defense or energy ETF move over 2 robust-z in a day","plain":"Defense or energy funds move far more than normal in a day","module":"money","kind":"metric","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"No readings yet.","note":"Fund prices need the owner's price key. Running prepare again with it can fill this sign.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["war-market-shock"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"money_cluster","words":"Follow the Money cluster alert","plain":"Three or more public filers report buying or selling the same watched stock in the same week","module":"money","kind":"alert","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"The House disclosure feed or the SEC Form 4 feed has not run yet.","note":"Follow the Money timing flags are not replayed in the backtest.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["war-market-shock"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"vix_over_baseline","words":"VIX over baseline","plain":"Stock market fear far above normal","module":"money","kind":"metric","state":"LIT","why":"Market fear (the VIX): far above normal twice in a row, in the last 3 days.","note":null,"confidence":"MODERATE","confidence_reason":"One source graded B2 or better.","fetched_at":"2025-11-22T05:00:00.000Z","scenarios":["war-market-shock"],"findings":[{"key":"VIXCLS","label":"Market fear (the VIX)","measure":"z","value":3.0645760869565195,"bar":3,"lit":true,"ts":"2025-11-21T00:00:00.000Z"}],"inputs":[{"type":"reading","db":"core","metric":"vix","key":"VIXCLS","ts":"2025-11-20T00:00:00.000Z","value":26.42,"z":4.5259927536231865,"baseline":{"n":139,"mean":17.891979622621626,"median":17.16,"mad":1.3800000000000008,"method":"robust_z_v1"},"source":"fred","source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=VIXCLS","fetched_at":"2025-11-21T05:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"vixcls.csv"},{"type":"reading","db":"core","metric":"vix","key":"VIXCLS","ts":"2025-11-21T00:00:00.000Z","value":23.43,"z":3.0645760869565195,"baseline":{"n":139,"mean":17.891979622621626,"median":17.16,"mad":1.3800000000000008,"method":"robust_z_v1"},"source":"fred","source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=VIXCLS","fetched_at":"2025-11-22T05:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"vixcls.csv"}]},{"sign_id":"sanctions_over_baseline","words":"sanctions adds over baseline","plain":"Far more sanctions added than normal","module":"pulse","kind":"metric","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"No readings yet.","note":"No history of the OFAC sanctions list was collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["war-market-shock"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]}],"series":[{"db":"pulse","metric":"gdelt_country_protest","key":"country:US","source":"gdelt","label":null,"tags":[],"readings_known":5952,"first_ts":"2025-09-21T17:00:00.000Z","latest":{"ts":"2025-11-22T16:45:00.000Z","value":0,"source_url":"https://data.gdeltproject.org/gdeltv2/20251122164500.export.CSV.zip","fetched_at":"2025-11-22T17:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"20251122164500.export.CSV.zip"},"baseline":{"as_of":"2025-11-22T07:00:00.000Z","pool":"slot","n":40,"warm":true}},{"db":"core","metric":"vix","key":"VIXCLS","source":"fred","label":null,"tags":[],"readings_known":139,"first_ts":"2025-05-13T00:00:00.000Z","latest":{"ts":"2025-11-21T00:00:00.000Z","value":23.43,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=VIXCLS","fetched_at":"2025-11-22T05:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"vixcls.csv"},"baseline":{"as_of":"2025-11-22T07:00:00.000Z","pool":"all_days","n":139,"warm":true}},{"db":"core","metric":"oil_wti","key":"DCOILWTICO","source":"fred","label":null,"tags":[],"readings_known":133,"first_ts":"2025-05-13T00:00:00.000Z","latest":{"ts":"2025-11-21T00:00:00.000Z","value":58.86,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=DCOILWTICO","fetched_at":"2025-11-22T05:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"dcoilwtico.csv"},"baseline":null},{"db":"core","metric":"kev_adds","key":"US","source":"cisa_kev","label":null,"tags":[],"readings_known":193,"first_ts":"2025-05-13T00:00:00.000Z","latest":{"ts":"2025-11-21T00:00:00.000Z","value":1,"source_url":"https://www.cisa.gov/sites/default/files/feeds/known_exploited_vulnerabilities.json","fetched_at":"2025-11-22T05:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"kev.json"},"baseline":{"as_of":"2025-11-22T07:00:00.000Z","pool":"all_days","n":193,"warm":true}}],"events":[{"source":"ioda","known":136}],"sources":[{"source":"ioda","last_ok_at":"2025-11-22T17:00:00.000Z","status":"ok","source_url":"https://api.ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu/v2/outages/alerts?from=1763337600&until=1763942400&entityType=region&relatedTo=country%2FUS&limit=5000","fetched_at":"2025-11-22T17:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"ioda-us-regions-20251117.json"}]},{"evaluate_at":"2025-11-23T17:00:00.000Z","local_time":"2025-11-23T12:00","zone":"America/New_York","baseline_as_of":"2025-11-23T07:00:00.000Z","status_line":{"evaluated_at":"2025-11-23T17:00:00.000Z","status":"NORMAL","rule_status":"NORMAL","held":false,"sentence":"No scenario has enough signs lit.","rule":"none","produced_by":{"alerts":[],"scenarios":[]},"version":"replay-1+692c1e40db38971c","source_url":"data/backtest/results.json","fetched_at":"2025-11-23T17:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"results.json"},"scenarios":[{"scenario_id":"us-strike-abroad","name":"US military strike abroad","lit":0,"not_lit":0,"not_evaluated":7,"total":7,"modules_lit":[],"counted":false,"reaches":"NORMAL","contribution":"NORMAL","elevated_at":4,"mayday_at":6,"weight_lit":0,"weight_total":7,"why":"0 of 7 signs lit. 7 not evaluated.","gaps":["Classified movements and orders.","Aircraft that fly without ADS-B or with blocked positions.","Encrypted communications.","Anything that is not on a public feed.","Food places near the Pentagon are at MAYDAY: not enough data in the last hour.","Food places near the White House are at MAYDAY: not enough data in the last hour.","Far more tanker planes than normal over one region: no readings yet.","An airborne command post flying at an unusual hour: no readings yet.","Betting odds on a US strike up 15 points or more in a day: no readings yet.","News about the target country turns far darker than normal: no readings yet.","A new security flight restriction over Washington, or executive jets flying far more than normal: security flight restriction over Washington: the FAA flight restrictions feed has not run yet. Executive jets: no readings yet."],"signs":[{"sign_id":"pentagon_ring","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"white_house_ring","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"tanker_surge","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"command_aircraft_offhours","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"strike_market_jump","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"target_tone_drop","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"dc_tfr_or_exec_aircraft","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1}],"source_url":"data/backtest/results.json","fetched_at":"2025-11-23T17:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"results.json"},{"scenario_id":"great-power-escalation","name":"Great-power escalation","lit":0,"not_lit":1,"not_evaluated":6,"total":7,"modules_lit":[],"counted":false,"reaches":"NORMAL","contribution":"NORMAL","elevated_at":3,"mayday_at":5,"weight_lit":0,"weight_total":7,"why":"0 of 7 signs lit. 6 not evaluated.","gaps":["Submarine positions.","Nuclear alert levels.","Diplomatic channels.","UKMTO warnings, Joint War Committee lists and UN Security Council sessions until an editor marks them.","Two credible outlets report nuclear bombers moved to other bases, or more submarines at sea: needs an editor. No mark yet.","An airborne command post flying at an unusual hour: no readings yet.","The State Department orders staff out of a country, or tells Americans not to travel to a G20 country: the State Department travel advisories feed has not run yet.","A warning to ships in a major strait: nGA navigational warning: the NGA navigational warnings feed has not run yet. UKMTO warning, marked by an editor: needs an editor. No mark yet.","Marine insurers add a sea area to their war risk list: needs an editor. No mark yet.","The UN Security Council holds an emergency session: needs an editor. No mark yet."],"signs":[{"sign_id":"bomber_sub_reports","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"command_aircraft_offhours","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"state_departure_or_level4","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"strait_warning","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"jwc_listed_area","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"oil_jump","state":"NOT LIT","weight":1},{"sign_id":"unsc_emergency","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1}],"source_url":"data/backtest/results.json","fetched_at":"2025-11-22T05:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"results.json"},{"scenario_id":"cyber-us-infrastructure","name":"Major cyber event on US infrastructure","lit":0,"not_lit":2,"not_evaluated":4,"total":6,"modules_lit":[],"counted":false,"reaches":"NORMAL","contribution":"NORMAL","elevated_at":3,"mayday_at":5,"weight_lit":0,"weight_total":6,"why":"0 of 6 signs lit. 4 not evaluated.","gaps":["Incidents not yet disclosed.","Classified attribution.","Private network telemetry.","Cloudflare Radar data until an editor marks it.","CISA gives federal agencies an emergency order about a threat: the CISA advisories feed has not run yet.","Far more US ransomware victims posted than normal: no readings yet.","Cloudflare reports an outage or an attack spike in a US region: needs an editor. No mark yet.","Food places near Fort Meade are at MAYDAY: not enough data in the last hour."],"signs":[{"sign_id":"cisa_emergency_directive","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"kev_over_baseline","state":"NOT LIT","weight":1},{"sign_id":"ransomware_us_over_baseline","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"radar_us_anomaly","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"ioda_us_state_outage","state":"NOT LIT","weight":1},{"sign_id":"fort_meade_ring","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1}],"source_url":"data/backtest/results.json","fetched_at":"2025-11-23T17:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"results.json"},{"scenario_id":"domestic-instability","name":"Domestic instability","lit":0,"not_lit":0,"not_evaluated":6,"total":6,"modules_lit":[],"counted":false,"reaches":"NORMAL","contribution":"NORMAL","elevated_at":3,"mayday_at":5,"weight_lit":0,"weight_total":6,"why":"0 of 6 signs lit. 6 not evaluated.","gaps":["ACLED data until its keys exist.","Threats that never become a public charge.","Private talks between officials.","More threats or attacks on officials and judges than normal: needs an editor. No mark yet.","More armed demonstrations than normal: needs an editor. No mark yet.","A state or an official refuses to certify a result or obey a court order: needs an editor. No mark yet.","A governor, a general or a top police leader breaks with the federal government in public: needs an editor. No mark yet.","The National Guard deploys in a state over its governor's objection: needs an editor. No mark yet.","A new security flight restriction over a state capital: the FAA flight restrictions feed has not run yet."],"signs":[{"sign_id":"threats_on_officials","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"armed_demonstrations","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"refusal_to_certify","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"public_break","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"guard_over_objection","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"tfr_state_capital","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1}],"source_url":"data/backtest/results.json","fetched_at":"2025-11-23T17:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"results.json"},{"scenario_id":"election-disruption","name":"Election disruption","lit":0,"not_lit":1,"not_evaluated":4,"total":5,"modules_lit":[],"counted":false,"reaches":"NORMAL","contribution":"NORMAL","elevated_at":3,"mayday_at":4,"weight_lit":0,"weight_total":5,"why":"0 of 5 signs lit. 4 not evaluated.","gaps":["State election office notices until an editor marks them.","FBI announcements until an editor marks them.","Private threats to election workers.","CISA or the FBI warns the public about a threat to an election: cISA election advisory: the CISA advisories feed has not run yet. FBI warning, marked by an editor: needs an editor. No mark yet.","Election offices in 3 or more states post warnings: needs an editor. No mark yet.","Betting odds on a certified election result swing 15 points or more in a day: no readings yet.","A new security flight restriction over a state capital: the FAA flight restrictions feed has not run yet."],"signs":[{"sign_id":"election_psa","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"election_office_advisories","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"certified_market_swing","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"us_protest_over_baseline","state":"NOT LIT","weight":1},{"sign_id":"tfr_state_capital","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1}],"source_url":"data/backtest/results.json","fetched_at":"2025-11-23T17:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"results.json"},{"scenario_id":"war-market-shock","name":"War-driven market shock","lit":1,"not_lit":0,"not_evaluated":4,"total":5,"modules_lit":["money"],"counted":false,"reaches":"NORMAL","contribution":"NORMAL","elevated_at":3,"mayday_at":4,"weight_lit":1,"weight_total":5,"why":"1 of 5 signs lit, from 1 module. 4 not evaluated.","gaps":["Trades not filed yet: members of Congress report up to 45 days late.","Private and off-exchange trading.","Joint War Committee lists until an editor marks them.","Defense or energy funds move far more than normal in a day: no readings yet.","Three or more public filers report buying or selling the same watched stock in the same week: the House disclosure feed or the SEC Form 4 feed has not run yet.","Marine insurers add a sea area to their war risk list: needs an editor. No mark yet.","Far more sanctions added than normal: no readings yet."],"signs":[{"sign_id":"etf_shock","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"money_cluster","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"vix_over_baseline","state":"LIT","weight":1},{"sign_id":"jwc_listed_area","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1},{"sign_id":"sanctions_over_baseline","state":"NOT EVALUATED","weight":1}],"source_url":"data/backtest/results.json","fetched_at":"2025-11-22T05:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"results.json"}],"signs":[{"sign_id":"pentagon_ring","words":"Pentagon ring MAYDAY","plain":"Food places near the Pentagon are at MAYDAY","module":"mayday","kind":"alert","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Not enough data in the last hour.","note":"The Mayday Index has no history before launch.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["us-strike-abroad"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"white_house_ring","words":"White House ring MAYDAY","plain":"Food places near the White House are at MAYDAY","module":"mayday","kind":"alert","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Not enough data in the last hour.","note":"The Mayday Index has no history before launch.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["us-strike-abroad"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"tanker_surge","words":"tanker surge over a region","plain":"Far more tanker planes than normal over one region","module":"sky","kind":"metric","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"No readings yet.","note":"ADS-B archives run to gigabytes a day, so no flight history was collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["us-strike-abroad"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"command_aircraft_offhours","words":"E-4B or E-6B airborne off-hours","plain":"An airborne command post flying at an unusual hour","module":"sky","kind":"metric","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"No readings yet.","note":"ADS-B archives run to gigabytes a day, so no flight history was collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["us-strike-abroad","great-power-escalation"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"strike_market_jump","words":"Kalshi or Polymarket strike market up 15 points in 24 h","plain":"Betting odds on a US strike up 15 points or more in a day","module":"pulse","kind":"metric","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"No readings yet.","note":"No strike market was found that traded that week, so the strike market sign has no series and no country is a strike target for the tone sign. Both are NOT EVALUATED.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["us-strike-abroad"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"target_tone_drop","words":"GDELT tone drop for the target country","plain":"News about the target country turns far darker than normal","module":"pulse","kind":"metric","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"No readings yet.","note":"No strike market was found that traded that week, so the strike market sign has no series and no country is a strike target for the tone sign. Both are NOT EVALUATED.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["us-strike-abroad"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"dc_tfr_or_exec_aircraft","words":"DC TFR or executive aircraft moving","plain":"A new security flight restriction over Washington, or executive jets flying far more than normal","module":"sky","kind":"any","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Security flight restriction over Washington: the FAA flight restrictions feed has not run yet. Executive jets: no readings yet.","note":"No FAA flight restriction archive and no flight history were collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["us-strike-abroad"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"bomber_sub_reports","words":"Nuclear-capable bombers dispersed or a submarine surge, reported by two credible outlets","plain":"Two credible outlets report nuclear bombers moved to other bases, or more submarines at sea","module":"sky","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["great-power-escalation"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"state_departure_or_level4","words":"State Department ordered departure or Level 4 for a G20 country","plain":"The State Department orders staff out of a country, or tells Americans not to travel to a G20 country","module":"pulse","kind":"event","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"The State Department travel advisories feed has not run yet.","note":"No history of State Department travel advisories was collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["great-power-escalation"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"strait_warning","words":"NAVAREA or UKMTO warning in a major strait","plain":"A warning to ships in a major strait","module":"sky","kind":"any","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"NGA navigational warning: the NGA navigational warnings feed has not run yet. UKMTO warning, marked by an editor: needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"No history of NGA warnings to ships was collected, and the editor part needs an editor mark.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["great-power-escalation"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"jwc_listed_area","words":"Joint War Committee adds a listed area","plain":"Marine insurers add a sea area to their war risk list","module":"money","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"An editor sign, and no Joint War Committee lists were collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["great-power-escalation","war-market-shock"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"oil_jump","words":"oil up 8% or more in a day","plain":"Oil prices up 8% or more in a day","module":"money","kind":"metric","state":"NOT LIT","why":"No move of 8% or more from the day before.","note":null,"confidence":"MODERATE","confidence_reason":"One source graded B2 or better.","fetched_at":"2025-11-22T05:00:00.000Z","scenarios":["great-power-escalation"],"findings":[{"key":"DCOILWTICO","label":"Oil","measure":"change","value":-2.014317,"bar":8,"lit":false,"ts":"2025-11-21T00:00:00.000Z"}],"inputs":[{"type":"reading","db":"core","metric":"oil_wti","key":"DCOILWTICO","ts":"2025-11-20T00:00:00.000Z","value":60.07,"z":null,"baseline":null,"source":"fred","source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=DCOILWTICO","fetched_at":"2025-11-21T05:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"dcoilwtico.csv"},{"type":"reading","db":"core","metric":"oil_wti","key":"DCOILWTICO","ts":"2025-11-21T00:00:00.000Z","value":58.86,"z":null,"baseline":null,"source":"fred","source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=DCOILWTICO","fetched_at":"2025-11-22T05:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"dcoilwtico.csv"}]},{"sign_id":"unsc_emergency","words":"emergency UN Security Council session","plain":"The UN Security Council holds an emergency session","module":"pulse","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["great-power-escalation"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"cisa_emergency_directive","words":"New CISA emergency directive","plain":"CISA gives federal agencies an emergency order about a threat","module":"homeland","kind":"event","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"The CISA advisories feed has not run yet.","note":"No history of CISA advisories was collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["cyber-us-infrastructure"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"kev_over_baseline","words":"KEV adds over baseline","plain":"Far more actively exploited flaws than normal added to CISA's list","module":"homeland","kind":"metric","state":"NOT LIT","why":"Within the normal range for this time of week.","note":null,"confidence":"MODERATE","confidence_reason":"One source graded B2 or better.","fetched_at":"2025-11-23T05:00:00.000Z","scenarios":["cyber-us-infrastructure"],"findings":[{"key":"US","label":"Flaws added to CISA's list","measure":"z","value":-8,"bar":3,"lit":false,"ts":"2025-11-22T00:00:00.000Z"}],"inputs":[{"type":"reading","db":"core","metric":"kev_adds","key":"US","ts":"2025-11-22T00:00:00.000Z","value":0,"z":-8,"baseline":{"n":194,"mean":0.6461092749129294,"median":0,"mad":0,"method":"poisson_v1"},"source":"cisa_kev","source_url":"https://www.cisa.gov/sites/default/files/feeds/known_exploited_vulnerabilities.json","fetched_at":"2025-11-23T05:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"kev.json"}]},{"sign_id":"ransomware_us_over_baseline","words":"ransomware.live US victims over baseline","plain":"Far more US ransomware victims posted than normal","module":"homeland","kind":"metric","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"No readings yet.","note":"ransomware.live history now needs a paid key.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["cyber-us-infrastructure"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"radar_us_anomaly","words":"Cloudflare Radar outage or attack anomaly for a US region","plain":"Cloudflare reports an outage or an attack spike in a US region","module":"pulse","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["cyber-us-infrastructure"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"ioda_us_state_outage","words":"IODA internet outage in a US state","plain":"A large internet outage in a US state","module":"pulse","kind":"event","state":"NOT LIT","why":"None in the last 24 hours.","note":null,"confidence":"MODERATE","confidence_reason":"One source graded B2 or better.","fetched_at":"2025-11-23T17:00:00.000Z","scenarios":["cyber-us-infrastructure"],"findings":[],"inputs":[{"type":"source_run","source":"ioda","status":"ok","last_ok_at":"2025-11-23T17:00:00.000Z","source_url":"https://api.ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu/v2/outages/alerts?from=1763337600&until=1763942400&entityType=region&relatedTo=country%2FUS&limit=5000","fetched_at":"2025-11-23T17:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"ioda-us-regions-20251117.json"}]},{"sign_id":"fort_meade_ring","words":"Fort Meade ring MAYDAY","plain":"Food places near Fort Meade are at MAYDAY","module":"mayday","kind":"alert","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Not enough data in the last hour.","note":"The Mayday Index has no history before launch.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["cyber-us-infrastructure"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"threats_on_officials","words":"Threats or attacks on officials and judges over baseline (ACLED, DOJ charges)","plain":"More threats or attacks on officials and judges than normal","module":"homeland","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"An editor sign, and no ACLED history was collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["domestic-instability"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"armed_demonstrations","words":"armed demonstrations over baseline (ACLED)","plain":"More armed demonstrations than normal","module":"pulse","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"An editor sign, and no ACLED history was collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["domestic-instability"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"refusal_to_certify","words":"a state or official refusing to certify a result or obey a court order","plain":"A state or an official refuses to certify a result or obey a court order","module":"homeland","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["domestic-instability"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"public_break","words":"a public break with the federal government by a governor, general or senior law enforcement leader","plain":"A governor, a general or a top police leader breaks with the federal government in public","module":"homeland","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["domestic-instability"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"guard_over_objection","words":"National Guard deployed over a governor's objection","plain":"The National Guard deploys in a state over its governor's objection","module":"homeland","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["domestic-instability"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"tfr_state_capital","words":"TFR over a state capital","plain":"A new security flight restriction over a state capital","module":"sky","kind":"event","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"The FAA flight restrictions feed has not run yet.","note":"No FAA flight restriction archive was collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["domestic-instability","election-disruption"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"election_psa","words":"CISA or FBI election PSA","plain":"CISA or the FBI warns the public about a threat to an election","module":"homeland","kind":"any","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"CISA election advisory: the CISA advisories feed has not run yet. FBI warning, marked by an editor: needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"No history of CISA advisories was collected, and the editor part needs an editor mark.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["election-disruption"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"election_office_advisories","words":"election-office advisories in 3 or more states","plain":"Election offices in 3 or more states post warnings","module":"homeland","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","note":"An editor sign, and no election-office advisories were collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["election-disruption"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"certified_market_swing","words":"Kalshi or Polymarket odds swing over 15 points on a certified-result market","plain":"Betting odds on a certified election result swing 15 points or more in a day","module":"pulse","kind":"metric","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"No readings yet.","note":"No market on a certified election result was collected for any window, and no Kalshi history.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["election-disruption"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"us_protest_over_baseline","words":"GDELT US protest events over baseline","plain":"Far more protest news in the US than normal","module":"pulse","kind":"metric","state":"NOT LIT","why":"Within the normal range for this time of week.","note":null,"confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"One source, graded C3.","fetched_at":"2025-11-23T17:00:00.000Z","scenarios":["election-disruption"],"findings":[{"key":"country:US","label":"Protest news in the US","measure":"z","value":0.19250598611781988,"bar":3,"lit":false,"ts":"2025-11-23T16:45:00.000Z"}],"inputs":[{"type":"reading","db":"pulse","metric":"gdelt_country_protest","key":"country:US","ts":"2025-11-23T16:45:00.000Z","value":3,"z":0.19250598611781988,"baseline":{"n":42,"mean":2.3747208438302754,"median":1.5,"mad":1,"method":"poisson_v1"},"source":"gdelt","source_url":"https://data.gdeltproject.org/gdeltv2/20251123164500.export.CSV.zip","fetched_at":"2025-11-23T17:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"20251123164500.export.CSV.zip"}]},{"sign_id":"etf_shock","words":"Defense or energy ETF move over 2 robust-z in a day","plain":"Defense or energy funds move far more than normal in a day","module":"money","kind":"metric","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"No readings yet.","note":"Fund prices need the owner's price key. Running prepare again with it can fill this sign.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["war-market-shock"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"money_cluster","words":"Follow the Money cluster alert","plain":"Three or more public filers report buying or selling the same watched stock in the same week","module":"money","kind":"alert","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"The House disclosure feed or the SEC Form 4 feed has not run yet.","note":"Follow the Money timing flags are not replayed in the backtest.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["war-market-shock"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"vix_over_baseline","words":"VIX over baseline","plain":"Stock market fear far above normal","module":"money","kind":"metric","state":"LIT","why":"Market fear (the VIX): far above normal twice in a row, in the last 3 days.","note":null,"confidence":"MODERATE","confidence_reason":"One source graded B2 or better.","fetched_at":"2025-11-22T05:00:00.000Z","scenarios":["war-market-shock"],"findings":[{"key":"VIXCLS","label":"Market fear (the VIX)","measure":"z","value":3.0645760869565195,"bar":3,"lit":true,"ts":"2025-11-21T00:00:00.000Z"}],"inputs":[{"type":"reading","db":"core","metric":"vix","key":"VIXCLS","ts":"2025-11-20T00:00:00.000Z","value":26.42,"z":4.5259927536231865,"baseline":{"n":139,"mean":17.891979622621616,"median":17.16,"mad":1.3800000000000008,"method":"robust_z_v1"},"source":"fred","source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=VIXCLS","fetched_at":"2025-11-21T05:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"vixcls.csv"},{"type":"reading","db":"core","metric":"vix","key":"VIXCLS","ts":"2025-11-21T00:00:00.000Z","value":23.43,"z":3.0645760869565195,"baseline":{"n":139,"mean":17.891979622621616,"median":17.16,"mad":1.3800000000000008,"method":"robust_z_v1"},"source":"fred","source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=VIXCLS","fetched_at":"2025-11-22T05:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"vixcls.csv"}]},{"sign_id":"sanctions_over_baseline","words":"sanctions adds over baseline","plain":"Far more sanctions added than normal","module":"pulse","kind":"metric","state":"NOT EVALUATED","why":"No readings yet.","note":"No history of the OFAC sanctions list was collected.","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","fetched_at":null,"scenarios":["war-market-shock"],"findings":[],"inputs":[]}],"series":[{"db":"pulse","metric":"gdelt_country_protest","key":"country:US","source":"gdelt","label":null,"tags":[],"readings_known":6048,"first_ts":"2025-09-21T17:00:00.000Z","latest":{"ts":"2025-11-23T16:45:00.000Z","value":3,"source_url":"https://data.gdeltproject.org/gdeltv2/20251123164500.export.CSV.zip","fetched_at":"2025-11-23T17:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"20251123164500.export.CSV.zip"},"baseline":{"as_of":"2025-11-23T07:00:00.000Z","pool":"slot","n":42,"warm":true}},{"db":"core","metric":"vix","key":"VIXCLS","source":"fred","label":null,"tags":[],"readings_known":139,"first_ts":"2025-05-13T00:00:00.000Z","latest":{"ts":"2025-11-21T00:00:00.000Z","value":23.43,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=VIXCLS","fetched_at":"2025-11-22T05:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"vixcls.csv"},"baseline":{"as_of":"2025-11-23T07:00:00.000Z","pool":"all_days","n":139,"warm":true}},{"db":"core","metric":"oil_wti","key":"DCOILWTICO","source":"fred","label":null,"tags":[],"readings_known":133,"first_ts":"2025-05-13T00:00:00.000Z","latest":{"ts":"2025-11-21T00:00:00.000Z","value":58.86,"source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=DCOILWTICO","fetched_at":"2025-11-22T05:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"dcoilwtico.csv"},"baseline":null},{"db":"core","metric":"kev_adds","key":"US","source":"cisa_kev","label":null,"tags":[],"readings_known":194,"first_ts":"2025-05-13T00:00:00.000Z","latest":{"ts":"2025-11-22T00:00:00.000Z","value":0,"source_url":"https://www.cisa.gov/sites/default/files/feeds/known_exploited_vulnerabilities.json","fetched_at":"2025-11-23T05:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"kev.json"},"baseline":{"as_of":"2025-11-23T07:00:00.000Z","pool":"all_days","n":194,"warm":true}}],"events":[{"source":"ioda","known":136}],"sources":[{"source":"ioda","last_ok_at":"2025-11-23T17:00:00.000Z","status":"ok","source_url":"https://api.ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu/v2/outages/alerts?from=1763337600&until=1763942400&entityType=region&relatedTo=country%2FUS&limit=5000","fetched_at":"2025-11-23T17:00:00.000Z","raw_key":"ioda-us-regions-20251117.json"}]}],"summary":{"outcome":"quiet","highest_status":"NORMAL","scenario_reached":null,"evaluable_signs":5,"total_signs":33,"signs_needed":null,"lit":[{"sign_id":"ioda_us_state_outage","plain":"A large internet outage in a US state","scenarios":["cyber-us-infrastructure"],"at":["2025-11-17T17:00:00.000Z","2025-11-18T17:00:00.000Z","2025-11-19T17:00:00.000Z","2025-11-20T17:00:00.000Z","2025-11-21T17:00:00.000Z","2025-11-22T17:00:00.000Z"]},{"sign_id":"us_protest_over_baseline","plain":"Far more protest news in the US than normal","scenarios":["election-disruption"],"at":["2025-11-17T17:00:00.000Z","2025-11-19T17:00:00.000Z","2025-11-20T17:00:00.000Z","2025-11-21T17:00:00.000Z"]},{"sign_id":"vix_over_baseline","plain":"Stock market fear far above normal","scenarios":["war-market-shock"],"at":["2025-11-19T17:00:00.000Z","2025-11-20T17:00:00.000Z","2025-11-21T17:00:00.000Z","2025-11-22T17:00:00.000Z","2025-11-23T17:00:00.000Z"]}],"words":["Quiet week: the status line read NORMAL at all 7 times checked.","Every scenario stayed NORMAL. 5 of the 33 signs had data.","Lit: a large internet outage in a US state (November 17, 2025, noon Eastern, November 18, 2025, noon Eastern, November 19, 2025, noon Eastern, November 20, 2025, noon Eastern, November 21, 2025, noon Eastern and November 22, 2025, noon Eastern), far more protest news in the US than normal (November 17, 2025, noon Eastern, November 19, 2025, noon Eastern, November 20, 2025, noon Eastern and November 21, 2025, noon Eastern) and stock market fear far above normal (November 19, 2025, noon Eastern, November 20, 2025, noon Eastern, November 21, 2025, noon Eastern, November 22, 2025, noon Eastern and November 23, 2025, noon Eastern)."]}}],"summary":{"outcomes":[{"id":"W1","outcome":"blind"},{"id":"W2","outcome":"blind"},{"id":"W3","outcome":"blind"},{"id":"Q","outcome":"quiet"}],"words":["Of the 3 windows before a real event, 0 raised its scenario, 0 missed it and 3 could not have raised it with the history that is free to collect.","The quiet week stayed NORMAL, but most of its signs had no data.","Thresholds do not move on this backtest: it cannot tell a good threshold from a bad one while most signs read NOT EVALUATED."]}}