{"scenario_id":"election-disruption","name":"Election disruption","evaluated_at":"2026-11-06T00:00:00.000Z","lit":1,"not_lit":1,"not_evaluated":3,"total":5,"modules":{"mayday":{"lit":0,"total":0},"sky":{"lit":1,"total":1},"money":{"lit":0,"total":0},"pulse":{"lit":0,"total":2},"homeland":{"lit":0,"total":2}},"modules_lit":["sky"],"counted":false,"weight_lit":1,"weight_total":5,"lr_product":1,"elevated_at":3,"mayday_at":4,"reaches":"NORMAL","contribution":"NORMAL","why":"1 of 5 signs lit, from 1 module. 3 not evaluated.","gaps":["State election office notices until an editor marks them.","FBI announcements until an editor marks them.","Private threats to election workers.","Election offices in 3 or more states post warnings: needs an editor. No mark yet.","Betting odds on a certified election result swing 15 points or more in a day: no readings yet.","Far more protest news in the US than normal: still learning what normal looks like."],"signs":[{"sign_id":"election_psa","scenario_id":"election-disruption","words":"CISA or FBI election PSA","plain":"CISA or the FBI warns the public about a threat to an election","module":"homeland","kind":"any","state":"NOT LIT","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"Part of this sign has no data.","why":"CISA election advisory: none in the last week. FBI warning, marked by an editor: needs an editor. No mark yet.","weight":1,"evaluated_at":"2026-11-06T00:00:00.000Z","fetched_at":"2026-11-05T23:10:29.074Z","findings":[],"inputs":[{"type":"source_run","source":"cisa_advisories","status":"ok","last_ok_at":"2026-11-05T23:10:38.655Z","source_url":"https://www.cisa.gov/cybersecurity-advisories/all.xml","fetched_at":"2026-11-05T23:10:29.074Z","raw_key":"raw/cisa_advisories/2026/11/05/231029Z-e4ee191d5b2e.xml"}]},{"sign_id":"election_office_advisories","scenario_id":"election-disruption","words":"election-office advisories in 3 or more states","plain":"Election offices in 3 or more states post warnings","module":"homeland","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","weight":1,"evaluated_at":"2026-11-06T00:00:00.000Z","fetched_at":null,"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"certified_market_swing","scenario_id":"election-disruption","words":"Kalshi or Polymarket odds swing over 15 points on a certified-result market","plain":"Betting odds on a certified election result swing 15 points or more in a day","module":"pulse","kind":"metric","state":"NOT EVALUATED","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","why":"No readings yet.","weight":1,"evaluated_at":"2026-11-06T00:00:00.000Z","fetched_at":null,"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"us_protest_over_baseline","scenario_id":"election-disruption","words":"GDELT US protest events over baseline","plain":"Far more protest news in the US than normal","module":"pulse","kind":"metric","state":"NOT EVALUATED","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","why":"Still learning what normal looks like.","weight":1,"evaluated_at":"2026-11-06T00:00:00.000Z","fetched_at":"2026-11-05T23:50:29.074Z","findings":[{"key":"country:US","label":"Protest news in the US","measure":"z","value":null,"bar":null,"lit":false,"ts":null}],"inputs":[{"type":"reading","db":"pulse","metric":"gdelt_country_protest","key":"country:US","ts":"2026-11-06T00:00:00.000Z","value":9,"z":null,"baseline":null,"source":"gdelt","source_url":"https://data.gdeltproject.org/gdeltv2/20261106000000.export.CSV.zip","fetched_at":"2026-11-05T23:50:29.074Z","raw_key":"raw/gdelt/2026/11/05/235029Z-4965bd64019c.zip"}]},{"sign_id":"tfr_state_capital","scenario_id":"election-disruption","words":"TFR over a state capital","plain":"A new security flight restriction over a state capital","module":"sky","kind":"event","state":"LIT","confidence":"MODERATE","confidence_reason":"One source graded B2 or better.","why":"Seen once in the last 2 days.","weight":1,"evaluated_at":"2026-11-06T00:00:00.000Z","fetched_at":"2026-11-05T17:40:29.074Z","findings":[{"key":"01M6MG2P00X3QBYPVJAS9PHRV3","label":null,"measure":"event","value":null,"bar":null,"lit":true,"ts":"2026-11-05T00:00:00.000Z"}],"inputs":[{"type":"event","id":"01M6MG2P00X3QBYPVJAS9PHRV3","source":"faa_tfr","ts":"2026-11-05T00:00:00.000Z","tags":["place:state_capital","tfr:security"],"url":"https://tfr.faa.gov/tfr3/?page=detail_6_5946","source_url":"https://tfr.faa.gov/tfrapi/exportTfrList","fetched_at":"2026-11-05T17:40:29.074Z","raw_key":"raw/faa_tfr/2026/11/05/174029Z-022295c19876.json"}]}],"fetched_at":"2026-11-05T23:50:29.074Z","version":"3b1a3fe432503d54a232e13103417d21775036b9"}