{"scenario_id":"war-market-shock","name":"War-driven market shock","evaluated_at":"2026-11-06T00:00:00.000Z","lit":0,"not_lit":1,"not_evaluated":4,"total":5,"modules":{"mayday":{"lit":0,"total":0},"sky":{"lit":0,"total":0},"money":{"lit":0,"total":4},"pulse":{"lit":0,"total":1},"homeland":{"lit":0,"total":0}},"modules_lit":[],"counted":false,"weight_lit":0,"weight_total":5,"lr_product":1,"elevated_at":3,"mayday_at":4,"reaches":"NORMAL","contribution":"NORMAL","why":"0 of 5 signs lit. 4 not evaluated.","gaps":["Trades not filed yet: members of Congress report up to 45 days late.","Private and off-exchange trading.","Joint War Committee lists until an editor marks them.","Defense or energy funds move far more than normal in a day: no readings yet.","Stock market fear far above normal: still learning what normal looks like.","Marine insurers add a sea area to their war risk list: needs an editor. No mark yet.","Far more sanctions added than normal: no readings yet."],"signs":[{"sign_id":"etf_shock","scenario_id":"war-market-shock","words":"Defense or energy ETF move over 2 robust-z in a day","plain":"Defense or energy funds move far more than normal in a day","module":"money","kind":"metric","state":"NOT EVALUATED","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","why":"No readings yet.","weight":1,"evaluated_at":"2026-11-06T00:00:00.000Z","fetched_at":null,"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"money_cluster","scenario_id":"war-market-shock","words":"Follow the Money cluster alert","plain":"Three or more public filers report buying or selling the same watched stock in the same week","module":"money","kind":"alert","state":"NOT LIT","confidence":"MODERATE","confidence_reason":"One source graded B2 or better.","why":"No alert in the last week.","weight":1,"evaluated_at":"2026-11-06T00:00:00.000Z","fetched_at":"2026-11-05T18:25:29.074Z","findings":[],"inputs":[{"type":"source_run","source":"house_clerk","status":"ok","last_ok_at":"2026-11-05T18:26:08.401Z","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035555.pdf","fetched_at":"2026-11-05T18:25:29.074Z","raw_key":"raw/house_clerk/2026/11/05/182529Z-b40743d3787a.pdf"}]},{"sign_id":"vix_over_baseline","scenario_id":"war-market-shock","words":"VIX over baseline","plain":"Stock market fear far above normal","module":"money","kind":"metric","state":"NOT EVALUATED","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","why":"Still learning what normal looks like.","weight":1,"evaluated_at":"2026-11-06T00:00:00.000Z","fetched_at":"2026-11-05T21:25:29.074Z","findings":[{"key":"VIXCLS","label":"Market fear (the VIX)","measure":"z","value":null,"bar":null,"lit":false,"ts":null}],"inputs":[{"type":"reading","db":"core","metric":"vix","key":"VIXCLS","ts":"2026-11-04T00:00:00.000Z","value":16.61,"z":null,"baseline":null,"source":"fred","source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=VIXCLS&cosd=2026-10-27","fetched_at":"2026-11-05T21:25:29.074Z","raw_key":"raw/fred/2026/11/05/212529Z-0eb2fafcc11b.csv"}]},{"sign_id":"jwc_listed_area","scenario_id":"war-market-shock","words":"Joint War Committee listed area added","plain":"Marine insurers add a sea area to their war risk list","module":"money","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","weight":1,"evaluated_at":"2026-11-06T00:00:00.000Z","fetched_at":null,"findings":[],"inputs":[]},{"sign_id":"sanctions_over_baseline","scenario_id":"war-market-shock","words":"sanctions adds over baseline","plain":"Far more sanctions added than normal","module":"pulse","kind":"metric","state":"NOT EVALUATED","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","why":"No readings yet.","weight":1,"evaluated_at":"2026-11-06T00:00:00.000Z","fetched_at":null,"findings":[],"inputs":[]}],"fetched_at":"2026-11-05T21:25:29.074Z","version":"3b1a3fe432503d54a232e13103417d21775036b9"}