{"line":{"evaluated_at":"2026-11-05T22:30:00.000Z","status":"NORMAL","rule_status":"NORMAL","held":false,"chain":{"rule":"none","rule_status":"NORMAL","produced_by":{"alerts":[],"scenarios":[]},"scenarios":[{"scenario_id":"us-strike-abroad","name":"US military strike abroad","lit":0,"total":7,"not_evaluated":6,"modules_lit":[],"counted":false,"reaches":"NORMAL","contribution":"NORMAL","weight_lit":0,"weight_total":7,"elevated_at":4,"mayday_at":6},{"scenario_id":"great-power-escalation","name":"Great-power escalation","lit":1,"total":7,"not_evaluated":5,"modules_lit":["money"],"counted":false,"reaches":"NORMAL","contribution":"NORMAL","weight_lit":1,"weight_total":7,"elevated_at":3,"mayday_at":5},{"scenario_id":"cyber-us-infrastructure","name":"Major cyber event on US infrastructure","lit":1,"total":6,"not_evaluated":5,"modules_lit":["pulse"],"counted":false,"reaches":"NORMAL","contribution":"NORMAL","weight_lit":1,"weight_total":6,"elevated_at":3,"mayday_at":5},{"scenario_id":"domestic-instability","name":"Domestic instability","lit":1,"total":6,"not_evaluated":5,"modules_lit":["sky"],"counted":false,"reaches":"NORMAL","contribution":"NORMAL","weight_lit":1,"weight_total":6,"elevated_at":3,"mayday_at":5},{"scenario_id":"election-disruption","name":"Election disruption","lit":1,"total":5,"not_evaluated":4,"modules_lit":["sky"],"counted":false,"reaches":"NORMAL","contribution":"NORMAL","weight_lit":1,"weight_total":5,"elevated_at":3,"mayday_at":4},{"scenario_id":"war-market-shock","name":"War-driven market shock","lit":0,"total":5,"not_evaluated":4,"modules_lit":[],"counted":false,"reaches":"NORMAL","contribution":"NORMAL","weight_lit":0,"weight_total":5,"elevated_at":3,"mayday_at":4}],"alerts":[],"hold":null},"sentence":"No scenario has enough signs lit.","fetched_at":"2026-11-05T22:25:29.074Z","version":"7dab153b1ba9bf246d8b6336e4ccf766c285ecfa"},"scenarios":[{"scenario_id":"us-strike-abroad","name":"US military strike abroad","evaluated_at":"2026-11-05T22:30:00.000Z","lit":0,"not_lit":1,"not_evaluated":6,"total":7,"modules":{"mayday":{"lit":0,"total":2},"sky":{"lit":0,"total":3},"money":{"lit":0,"total":0},"pulse":{"lit":0,"total":2},"homeland":{"lit":0,"total":0}},"modules_lit":[],"counted":false,"weight_lit":0,"weight_total":7,"lr_product":1,"elevated_at":4,"mayday_at":6,"reaches":"NORMAL","contribution":"NORMAL","why":"0 of 7 signs lit. 6 not evaluated.","gaps":["Classified movements and orders.","Aircraft that fly without ADS-B or with blocked positions.","Encrypted communications.","Anything that is not on a public feed.","Food places near the Pentagon are at MAYDAY: not enough data in the last hour.","Food places near the White House are at MAYDAY: not enough data in the last hour.","Far more tanker planes than normal over one region: still learning what normal looks like.","An airborne command post flying at an unusual hour: still learning what normal looks like.","Betting odds on a US strike up 15 points or more in a day: no readings yet.","News about the target country turns far darker than normal: no readings yet."],"signs":[{"sign_id":"pentagon_ring","words":"Pentagon ring MAYDAY","plain":"Food places near the Pentagon are at MAYDAY","module":"mayday","kind":"alert","state":"NOT EVALUATED","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","why":"Not enough data in the last hour.","weight":1,"fetched_at":null},{"sign_id":"white_house_ring","words":"White House ring MAYDAY","plain":"Food places near the White House are at MAYDAY","module":"mayday","kind":"alert","state":"NOT EVALUATED","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","why":"Not enough data in the last hour.","weight":1,"fetched_at":null},{"sign_id":"tanker_surge","words":"tanker surge over a region","plain":"Far more tanker planes than normal over one region","module":"sky","kind":"metric","state":"NOT EVALUATED","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","why":"Still learning what normal looks like.","weight":1,"fetched_at":"2026-11-05T22:25:29.074Z"},{"sign_id":"command_aircraft_offhours","words":"E-4B or E-6B airborne off-hours","plain":"An airborne command post flying at an unusual hour","module":"sky","kind":"metric","state":"NOT EVALUATED","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","why":"Still learning what normal looks like.","weight":1,"fetched_at":"2026-11-05T22:25:29.074Z"},{"sign_id":"strike_market_jump","words":"Kalshi or Polymarket strike market up 15 points in 24 h","plain":"Betting odds on a US strike up 15 points or more in a day","module":"pulse","kind":"metric","state":"NOT EVALUATED","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","why":"No readings yet.","weight":1,"fetched_at":null},{"sign_id":"target_tone_drop","words":"GDELT tone drop for the target country","plain":"News about the target country turns far darker than normal","module":"pulse","kind":"metric","state":"NOT EVALUATED","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","why":"No readings yet.","weight":1,"fetched_at":null},{"sign_id":"dc_tfr_or_exec_aircraft","words":"DC TFR or executive aircraft moving","plain":"A new security flight restriction over Washington, or executive jets flying far more than normal","module":"sky","kind":"any","state":"NOT LIT","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"Part of this sign has no data.","why":"Security flight restriction over Washington: none in the last 2 days. Executive jets: still learning what normal looks like.","weight":1,"fetched_at":"2026-11-05T22:25:29.074Z"}],"version":"7dab153b1ba9bf246d8b6336e4ccf766c285ecfa","raw_key":"raw/scenario_eval/2026/11/05/223000Z-d678f6558e86.json"},{"scenario_id":"great-power-escalation","name":"Great-power escalation","evaluated_at":"2026-11-05T22:30:00.000Z","lit":1,"not_lit":1,"not_evaluated":5,"total":7,"modules":{"mayday":{"lit":0,"total":0},"sky":{"lit":0,"total":3},"money":{"lit":1,"total":2},"pulse":{"lit":0,"total":2},"homeland":{"lit":0,"total":0}},"modules_lit":["money"],"counted":false,"weight_lit":1,"weight_total":7,"lr_product":1,"elevated_at":3,"mayday_at":5,"reaches":"NORMAL","contribution":"NORMAL","why":"1 of 7 signs lit, from 1 module. 5 not evaluated.","gaps":["Submarine positions.","Nuclear alert levels.","Diplomatic channels.","UKMTO warnings, Joint War Committee lists and UN Security Council sessions until an editor marks them.","Two credible outlets report nuclear bombers moved to other bases, or more submarines at sea: needs an editor. No mark yet.","An airborne command post flying at an unusual hour: still learning what normal looks like.","A warning to ships in a major strait: nGA navigational warning: the NGA navigational warnings feed has not run yet. UKMTO warning, marked by an editor: needs an editor. No mark yet.","Marine insurers add a sea area to their war risk list: needs an editor. No mark yet.","The UN Security Council holds an emergency session: needs an editor. No mark yet."],"signs":[{"sign_id":"bomber_sub_reports","words":"Nuclear-capable bombers dispersed or a submarine surge, reported by two credible outlets","plain":"Two credible outlets report nuclear bombers moved to other bases, or more submarines at sea","module":"sky","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","weight":1,"fetched_at":null},{"sign_id":"command_aircraft_offhours","words":"E-4B or E-6B airborne off-hours","plain":"An airborne command post flying at an unusual hour","module":"sky","kind":"metric","state":"NOT EVALUATED","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","why":"Still learning what normal looks like.","weight":1,"fetched_at":"2026-11-05T22:25:29.074Z"},{"sign_id":"state_departure_or_level4","words":"State Department ordered departure or Level 4 for a G20 country","plain":"The State Department orders staff out of a country, or tells Americans not to travel to a G20 country","module":"pulse","kind":"event","state":"NOT LIT","confidence":"MODERATE","confidence_reason":"One source graded B2 or better.","why":"None in the last 3 days.","weight":1,"fetched_at":"2026-11-05T13:15:29.074Z"},{"sign_id":"strait_warning","words":"NAVAREA or UKMTO warning in a major strait","plain":"A warning to ships in a major strait","module":"sky","kind":"any","state":"NOT EVALUATED","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","why":"NGA navigational warning: the NGA navigational warnings feed has not run yet. UKMTO warning, marked by an editor: needs an editor. No mark yet.","weight":1,"fetched_at":null},{"sign_id":"jwc_listed_area","words":"Joint War Committee adds a listed area","plain":"Marine insurers add a sea area to their war risk list","module":"money","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","weight":1,"fetched_at":null},{"sign_id":"oil_jump","words":"oil up 8% or more in a day","plain":"Oil prices up 8% or more in a day","module":"money","kind":"metric","state":"LIT","confidence":"MODERATE","confidence_reason":"One source graded B2 or better.","why":"Oil: up 8.7% from the day before.","weight":1,"fetched_at":"2026-11-05T13:25:29.074Z"},{"sign_id":"unsc_emergency","words":"emergency UN Security Council session","plain":"The UN Security Council holds an emergency session","module":"pulse","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","weight":1,"fetched_at":null}],"version":"7dab153b1ba9bf246d8b6336e4ccf766c285ecfa","raw_key":"raw/scenario_eval/2026/11/05/223000Z-4f455cbd1493.json"},{"scenario_id":"cyber-us-infrastructure","name":"Major cyber event on US infrastructure","evaluated_at":"2026-11-05T22:30:00.000Z","lit":1,"not_lit":0,"not_evaluated":5,"total":6,"modules":{"mayday":{"lit":0,"total":1},"sky":{"lit":0,"total":0},"money":{"lit":0,"total":0},"pulse":{"lit":1,"total":2},"homeland":{"lit":0,"total":3}},"modules_lit":["pulse"],"counted":false,"weight_lit":1,"weight_total":6,"lr_product":1,"elevated_at":3,"mayday_at":5,"reaches":"NORMAL","contribution":"NORMAL","why":"1 of 6 signs lit, from 1 module. 5 not evaluated.","gaps":["Incidents not yet disclosed.","Classified attribution.","Private network telemetry.","Cloudflare Radar data until an editor marks it.","CISA gives federal agencies an emergency order about a threat: the CISA advisories feed has not run yet.","Far more actively exploited flaws than normal added to CISA's list: still learning what normal looks like.","Far more US ransomware victims posted than normal: still learning what normal looks like.","Cloudflare reports an outage or an attack spike in a US region: needs an editor. No mark yet.","Food places near Fort Meade are at MAYDAY: not enough data in the last hour."],"signs":[{"sign_id":"cisa_emergency_directive","words":"New CISA emergency directive","plain":"CISA gives federal agencies an emergency order about a threat","module":"homeland","kind":"event","state":"NOT EVALUATED","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","why":"The CISA advisories feed has not run yet.","weight":1,"fetched_at":null},{"sign_id":"kev_over_baseline","words":"KEV adds over baseline","plain":"Far more actively exploited flaws than normal added to CISA's list","module":"homeland","kind":"metric","state":"NOT EVALUATED","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","why":"Still learning what normal looks like.","weight":1,"fetched_at":"2026-11-05T04:05:29.074Z"},{"sign_id":"ransomware_us_over_baseline","words":"ransomware.live US victims over baseline","plain":"Far more US ransomware victims posted than normal","module":"homeland","kind":"metric","state":"NOT EVALUATED","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","why":"Still learning what normal looks like.","weight":1,"fetched_at":"2026-11-05T20:20:29.074Z"},{"sign_id":"radar_us_anomaly","words":"Cloudflare Radar outage or attack anomaly for a US region","plain":"Cloudflare reports an outage or an attack spike in a US region","module":"pulse","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","weight":1,"fetched_at":null},{"sign_id":"ioda_us_state_outage","words":"IODA internet outage in a US state","plain":"A large internet outage in a US state","module":"pulse","kind":"event","state":"LIT","confidence":"MODERATE","confidence_reason":"One source graded B2 or better.","why":"Seen 3 times in the last 24 hours.","weight":1,"fetched_at":"2026-11-05T22:25:29.074Z"},{"sign_id":"fort_meade_ring","words":"Fort Meade ring MAYDAY","plain":"Food places near Fort Meade are at MAYDAY","module":"mayday","kind":"alert","state":"NOT EVALUATED","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","why":"Not enough data in the last hour.","weight":1,"fetched_at":null}],"version":"7dab153b1ba9bf246d8b6336e4ccf766c285ecfa","raw_key":"raw/scenario_eval/2026/11/05/223000Z-7e036d16944d.json"},{"scenario_id":"domestic-instability","name":"Domestic instability","evaluated_at":"2026-11-05T22:30:00.000Z","lit":1,"not_lit":0,"not_evaluated":5,"total":6,"modules":{"mayday":{"lit":0,"total":0},"sky":{"lit":1,"total":1},"money":{"lit":0,"total":0},"pulse":{"lit":0,"total":1},"homeland":{"lit":0,"total":4}},"modules_lit":["sky"],"counted":false,"weight_lit":1,"weight_total":6,"lr_product":1,"elevated_at":3,"mayday_at":5,"reaches":"NORMAL","contribution":"NORMAL","why":"1 of 6 signs lit, from 1 module. 5 not evaluated.","gaps":["ACLED data until its keys exist.","Threats that never become a public charge.","Private talks between officials.","More threats or attacks on officials and judges than normal: needs an editor. No mark yet.","More armed demonstrations than normal: needs an editor. No mark yet.","A state or an official refuses to certify a result or obey a court order: needs an editor. No mark yet.","A governor, a general or a top police leader breaks with the federal government in public: needs an editor. No mark yet.","The National Guard deploys in a state over its governor's objection: needs an editor. No mark yet."],"signs":[{"sign_id":"threats_on_officials","words":"Threats or attacks on officials and judges over baseline (ACLED, DOJ charges)","plain":"More threats or attacks on officials and judges than normal","module":"homeland","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","weight":1,"fetched_at":null},{"sign_id":"armed_demonstrations","words":"armed demonstrations over baseline (ACLED)","plain":"More armed demonstrations than normal","module":"pulse","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","weight":1,"fetched_at":null},{"sign_id":"refusal_to_certify","words":"a state or official refusing to certify a result or obey a court order","plain":"A state or an official refuses to certify a result or obey a court order","module":"homeland","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","weight":1,"fetched_at":null},{"sign_id":"public_break","words":"a public break with the federal government by a governor, general or senior law enforcement leader","plain":"A governor, a general or a top police leader breaks with the federal government in public","module":"homeland","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","weight":1,"fetched_at":null},{"sign_id":"guard_over_objection","words":"National Guard deployed over a governor's objection","plain":"The National Guard deploys in a state over its governor's objection","module":"homeland","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","weight":1,"fetched_at":null},{"sign_id":"tfr_state_capital","words":"TFR over a state capital","plain":"A new security flight restriction over a state capital","module":"sky","kind":"event","state":"LIT","confidence":"MODERATE","confidence_reason":"One source graded B2 or better.","why":"Seen once in the last 2 days.","weight":1,"fetched_at":"2026-11-05T17:40:29.074Z"}],"version":"7dab153b1ba9bf246d8b6336e4ccf766c285ecfa","raw_key":"raw/scenario_eval/2026/11/05/223000Z-ca2c297b20b9.json"},{"scenario_id":"election-disruption","name":"Election disruption","evaluated_at":"2026-11-05T22:30:00.000Z","lit":1,"not_lit":0,"not_evaluated":4,"total":5,"modules":{"mayday":{"lit":0,"total":0},"sky":{"lit":1,"total":1},"money":{"lit":0,"total":0},"pulse":{"lit":0,"total":2},"homeland":{"lit":0,"total":2}},"modules_lit":["sky"],"counted":false,"weight_lit":1,"weight_total":5,"lr_product":1,"elevated_at":3,"mayday_at":4,"reaches":"NORMAL","contribution":"NORMAL","why":"1 of 5 signs lit, from 1 module. 4 not evaluated.","gaps":["State election office notices until an editor marks them.","FBI announcements until an editor marks them.","Private threats to election workers.","CISA or the FBI warns the public about a threat to an election: cISA election advisory: the CISA advisories feed has not run yet. FBI warning, marked by an editor: needs an editor. No mark yet.","Election offices in 3 or more states post warnings: needs an editor. No mark yet.","Betting odds on a certified election result swing 15 points or more in a day: no readings yet.","Far more protest news in the US than normal: still learning what normal looks like."],"signs":[{"sign_id":"election_psa","words":"CISA or FBI election PSA","plain":"CISA or the FBI warns the public about a threat to an election","module":"homeland","kind":"any","state":"NOT EVALUATED","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","why":"CISA election advisory: the CISA advisories feed has not run yet. FBI warning, marked by an editor: needs an editor. No mark yet.","weight":1,"fetched_at":null},{"sign_id":"election_office_advisories","words":"election-office advisories in 3 or more states","plain":"Election offices in 3 or more states post warnings","module":"homeland","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","weight":1,"fetched_at":null},{"sign_id":"certified_market_swing","words":"Kalshi or Polymarket odds swing over 15 points on a certified-result market","plain":"Betting odds on a certified election result swing 15 points or more in a day","module":"pulse","kind":"metric","state":"NOT EVALUATED","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","why":"No readings yet.","weight":1,"fetched_at":null},{"sign_id":"us_protest_over_baseline","words":"GDELT US protest events over baseline","plain":"Far more protest news in the US than normal","module":"pulse","kind":"metric","state":"NOT EVALUATED","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","why":"Still learning what normal looks like.","weight":1,"fetched_at":"2026-11-05T22:20:29.074Z"},{"sign_id":"tfr_state_capital","words":"TFR over a state capital","plain":"A new security flight restriction over a state capital","module":"sky","kind":"event","state":"LIT","confidence":"MODERATE","confidence_reason":"One source graded B2 or better.","why":"Seen once in the last 2 days.","weight":1,"fetched_at":"2026-11-05T17:40:29.074Z"}],"version":"7dab153b1ba9bf246d8b6336e4ccf766c285ecfa","raw_key":"raw/scenario_eval/2026/11/05/223000Z-87ae074decdc.json"},{"scenario_id":"war-market-shock","name":"War-driven market shock","evaluated_at":"2026-11-05T22:30:00.000Z","lit":0,"not_lit":1,"not_evaluated":4,"total":5,"modules":{"mayday":{"lit":0,"total":0},"sky":{"lit":0,"total":0},"money":{"lit":0,"total":4},"pulse":{"lit":0,"total":1},"homeland":{"lit":0,"total":0}},"modules_lit":[],"counted":false,"weight_lit":0,"weight_total":5,"lr_product":1,"elevated_at":3,"mayday_at":4,"reaches":"NORMAL","contribution":"NORMAL","why":"0 of 5 signs lit. 4 not evaluated.","gaps":["Trades not filed yet: members of Congress report up to 45 days late.","Private and off-exchange trading.","Joint War Committee lists until an editor marks them.","Defense or energy funds move far more than normal in a day: no readings yet.","Stock market fear far above normal: still learning what normal looks like.","Marine insurers add a sea area to their war risk list: needs an editor. No mark yet.","Far more sanctions added than normal: no readings yet."],"signs":[{"sign_id":"etf_shock","words":"Defense or energy ETF move over 2 robust-z in a day","plain":"Defense or energy funds move far more than normal in a day","module":"money","kind":"metric","state":"NOT EVALUATED","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","why":"No readings yet.","weight":1,"fetched_at":null},{"sign_id":"money_cluster","words":"Follow the Money cluster alert","plain":"Three or more public filers report buying or selling the same watched stock in the same week","module":"money","kind":"alert","state":"NOT LIT","confidence":"MODERATE","confidence_reason":"One source graded B2 or better.","why":"No alert in the last week.","weight":1,"fetched_at":"2026-11-05T18:25:29.074Z"},{"sign_id":"vix_over_baseline","words":"VIX over baseline","plain":"Stock market fear far above normal","module":"money","kind":"metric","state":"NOT EVALUATED","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","why":"Still learning what normal looks like.","weight":1,"fetched_at":"2026-11-05T21:25:29.074Z"},{"sign_id":"jwc_listed_area","words":"Joint War Committee listed area added","plain":"Marine insurers add a sea area to their war risk list","module":"money","kind":"editor","state":"NOT EVALUATED","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","weight":1,"fetched_at":null},{"sign_id":"sanctions_over_baseline","words":"sanctions adds over baseline","plain":"Far more sanctions added than normal","module":"pulse","kind":"metric","state":"NOT EVALUATED","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","why":"No readings yet.","weight":1,"fetched_at":null}],"version":"7dab153b1ba9bf246d8b6336e4ccf766c285ecfa","raw_key":"raw/scenario_eval/2026/11/05/223000Z-acf952bec1a0.json"}]}