{"scenario":{"id":"cyber-us-infrastructure","name":"Major cyber event on US infrastructure","about":"Signs of a large cyber attack on the US power, water, communications or other systems people depend on.","page_path":"/scenarios/cyber-us-infrastructure","elevated_at":3,"mayday_at":5,"evaluated_at":"2026-11-06T03:00:00.000Z","lit":1,"not_lit":1,"not_evaluated":4,"total":6,"counted":false,"reaches":"NORMAL","contribution":"NORMAL","modules_lit":["World Pulse"],"words":"1 of 6 signs lit.","why":"1 of 6 signs lit, from 1 module. 4 not evaluated.","stale":false,"receipt":{"source_url":"https://www.maydaypizza.com/api/v1/scenarios/cyber-us-infrastructure","fetched_at":"2026-11-06T02:20:29.074Z","raw_key":"raw/scenario_eval/2026/11/06/030000Z-4f4f76255c03.json","receipt_url":"/api/v1/receipt/raw/scenario_eval/2026/11/06/030000Z-4f4f76255c03.json"},"flips_24h":[],"flips_since":null,"previous":null,"assumptions":["Outages and advisories in the same window share a cause.","A rise in ransomware posts reflects new attacks, not a leak site catching up on old ones."],"alternatives":[{"explanation":"A large outage with no attacker: a bad software update, a cable cut or a cloud failure.","would_confirm":"The provider's incident report naming a configuration or hardware cause."},{"explanation":"A ransomware group posting old victims in a batch.","would_confirm":"Victim posts dated weeks earlier, or the group's known habit of posting in batches."},{"explanation":"A severe flaw under mass scanning, with no coordinated attack.","would_confirm":"CISA guidance that names attempts to exploit it but no harm to infrastructure."}],"alternatives_first":false,"gaps":["Incidents not yet disclosed.","Classified attribution.","Private network telemetry.","Cloudflare Radar data until an editor marks it.","Far more actively exploited flaws than normal added to CISA's list: still learning what normal looks like.","Far more US ransomware victims posted than normal: still learning what normal looks like.","Cloudflare reports an outage or an attack spike in a US region: needs an editor. No mark yet.","Food places near Fort Meade are at MAYDAY: not enough data in the last hour."],"weight_lit":1,"weight_total":6,"lr_product":1,"modules":{"mayday":{"name":"Mayday Index","lit":0,"total":1},"pulse":{"name":"World Pulse","lit":1,"total":2},"homeland":{"name":"Homeland Baseline","lit":0,"total":3}},"signs":[{"id":"cisa_emergency_directive","words":"New CISA emergency directive","plain":"CISA gives federal agencies an emergency order about a threat","reason":"An emergency directive is CISA's strongest order. It comes when a threat is active against federal networks.","module":"homeland","module_name":"Homeland Baseline","kind":"event","editor":false,"weight":1,"manipulation":{"how":"Directives follow federal policy timing as well as threats.","response":"Only a new emergency directive counts, by its number.","cost":"high"},"state":"NOT LIT","confidence":"MODERATE","confidence_reason":"One source graded B2 or better.","why":"None in the last week.","fetched_at":"2026-11-05T23:10:29.074Z","receipt_url":"/api/v1/receipt/raw/scenario_eval/2026/11/06/030000Z-4f4f76255c03.json"},{"id":"kev_over_baseline","words":"KEV adds over baseline","plain":"Far more actively exploited flaws than normal added to CISA's list","reason":"A jump in known exploited flaws means attackers are busy against systems in use.","module":"homeland","module_name":"Homeland Baseline","kind":"metric","editor":false,"weight":1,"manipulation":{"how":"CISA adds old flaws in batches when it clears a backlog.","response":"Additions count against their own baseline, and a batch of old entries shows in the receipt.","cost":"high"},"state":"NOT EVALUATED","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","why":"Still learning what normal looks like.","fetched_at":"2026-11-05T04:05:29.074Z","receipt_url":"/api/v1/receipt/raw/scenario_eval/2026/11/06/030000Z-4f4f76255c03.json"},{"id":"ransomware_us_over_baseline","words":"ransomware.live US victims over baseline","plain":"Far more US ransomware victims posted than normal","reason":"A wave of victims in one country can mean a campaign aimed at it.","module":"homeland","module_name":"Homeland Baseline","kind":"metric","editor":false,"weight":1,"manipulation":{"how":"Groups post old victims in batches, or false claims to look busy.","response":"Counts only, never names or links, read against the country's own baseline.","cost":"low"},"state":"NOT EVALUATED","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","why":"Still learning what normal looks like.","fetched_at":"2026-11-06T02:20:29.074Z","receipt_url":"/api/v1/receipt/raw/scenario_eval/2026/11/06/030000Z-4f4f76255c03.json"},{"id":"radar_us_anomaly","words":"Cloudflare Radar outage or attack anomaly for a US region","plain":"Cloudflare reports an outage or an attack spike in a US region","reason":"Cloudflare carries a large share of internet traffic. An outage or attack spike it flags is real.","module":"pulse","module_name":"World Pulse","kind":"editor","editor":true,"weight":1,"manipulation":{"how":"A large outage with a mundane cause, such as a bad update or a cut cable, looks like an attack.","response":"An editor marks it from Cloudflare's own outage or attack note until the Radar keys exist.","cost":"high"},"state":"NOT EVALUATED","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","fetched_at":null,"receipt_url":"/api/v1/receipt/raw/scenario_eval/2026/11/06/030000Z-4f4f76255c03.json"},{"id":"ioda_us_state_outage","words":"IODA internet outage in a US state","plain":"A large internet outage in a US state","reason":"Attacks on networks and on power show up as outages across a state.","module":"pulse","module_name":"World Pulse","kind":"event","editor":false,"weight":1,"manipulation":{"how":"Power cuts, storms and cable cuts take networks down too.","response":"Only IODA's critical alerts for a US state count.","cost":"high"},"state":"LIT","confidence":"MODERATE","confidence_reason":"One source graded B2 or better.","why":"Seen 2 times in the last 24 hours.","fetched_at":"2026-11-05T22:25:29.074Z","receipt_url":"/api/v1/receipt/raw/scenario_eval/2026/11/06/030000Z-4f4f76255c03.json"},{"id":"fort_meade_ring","words":"Fort Meade ring MAYDAY","plain":"Food places near Fort Meade are at MAYDAY","reason":"Fort Meade is home to the NSA and Cyber Command. Late nights there come with cyber operations.","module":"mayday","module_name":"Mayday Index","kind":"alert","editor":false,"weight":1,"manipulation":{"how":"The theory is public and the base rate of spikes with nothing going on was never published. One actor can flood crowd reports.","response":"Low weight and never alone. We publish the base rate ourselves. Turnstile, one report per address per venue per day, the median and a three-venue minimum.","cost":"low"},"state":"NOT EVALUATED","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","why":"Not enough data in the last 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