{"scenario":{"id":"domestic-instability","name":"Domestic instability","about":"Signs of a breakdown in how US governments, courts and security forces work together.","page_path":"/scenarios/domestic-instability","elevated_at":3,"mayday_at":5,"evaluated_at":"2026-11-06T03:00:00.000Z","lit":1,"not_lit":0,"not_evaluated":5,"total":6,"counted":false,"reaches":"NORMAL","contribution":"NORMAL","modules_lit":["Sky Watch"],"words":"1 of 6 signs lit.","why":"1 of 6 signs lit, from 1 module. 5 not evaluated.","stale":false,"receipt":{"source_url":"https://www.maydaypizza.com/api/v1/scenarios/domestic-instability","fetched_at":"2026-11-05T17:40:29.074Z","raw_key":"raw/scenario_eval/2026/11/06/030000Z-18d83e5bb7c0.json","receipt_url":"/api/v1/receipt/raw/scenario_eval/2026/11/06/030000Z-18d83e5bb7c0.json"},"flips_24h":[],"flips_since":null,"previous":null,"assumptions":["Threats, refusals and deployments in the same window are linked.","Reports of a refusal come from the officials themselves or from court records, not from commentary."],"alternatives":[{"explanation":"A hard but lawful dispute that the courts settle.","would_confirm":"Court rulings that every side follows within days."},{"explanation":"A planned large event, such as an inauguration or a summit, that brings flight restrictions and Guard deployments.","would_confirm":"A published event schedule that explains the restriction and the deployment."},{"explanation":"Local unrest that stays local.","would_confirm":"Activity in one city, with state and federal officials in agreement."}],"alternatives_first":false,"gaps":["ACLED data until its keys exist.","Threats that never become a public charge.","Private talks between officials.","More threats or attacks on officials and judges than normal: needs an editor. No mark yet.","More armed demonstrations than normal: needs an editor. No mark yet.","A state or an official refuses to certify a result or obey a court order: needs an editor. No mark yet.","A governor, a general or a top police leader breaks with the federal government in public: needs an editor. No mark yet.","The National Guard deploys in a state over its governor's objection: needs an editor. No mark yet."],"weight_lit":1,"weight_total":6,"lr_product":1,"modules":{"sky":{"name":"Sky Watch","lit":1,"total":1},"pulse":{"name":"World Pulse","lit":0,"total":1},"homeland":{"name":"Homeland Baseline","lit":0,"total":4}},"signs":[{"id":"threats_on_officials","words":"Threats or attacks on officials and judges over baseline (ACLED, DOJ charges)","plain":"More threats or attacks on officials and judges than normal","reason":"Violence against officials rises before and during a breakdown.","module":"homeland","module_name":"Homeland Baseline","kind":"editor","editor":true,"weight":1,"manipulation":{"how":"Charges lag events by weeks, and reporting varies by district.","response":"An editor marks it from DOJ releases or ACLED counts over baseline until those feeds exist.","cost":"medium"},"state":"NOT EVALUATED","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","fetched_at":null,"receipt_url":"/api/v1/receipt/raw/scenario_eval/2026/11/06/030000Z-18d83e5bb7c0.json"},{"id":"armed_demonstrations","words":"armed demonstrations over baseline (ACLED)","plain":"More armed demonstrations than normal","reason":"Armed crowds raise the chance that a protest turns violent.","module":"pulse","module_name":"World Pulse","kind":"editor","editor":true,"weight":1,"manipulation":{"how":"Event coders differ on what counts as armed.","response":"ACLED counts over baseline only, marked by an editor until the keys exist.","cost":"medium"},"state":"NOT EVALUATED","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","fetched_at":null,"receipt_url":"/api/v1/receipt/raw/scenario_eval/2026/11/06/030000Z-18d83e5bb7c0.json"},{"id":"refusal_to_certify","words":"a state or official refusing to certify a result or obey a court order","plain":"A state or an official refuses to certify a result or obey a court order","reason":"Refusing a result or a court order breaks the rules everyone else follows.","module":"homeland","module_name":"Homeland Baseline","kind":"editor","editor":true,"weight":1,"manipulation":{"how":"Statements can be walked back within hours.","response":"Only a formal refusal on the record counts: a vote, a filing or an order.","cost":"medium"},"state":"NOT EVALUATED","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","fetched_at":null,"receipt_url":"/api/v1/receipt/raw/scenario_eval/2026/11/06/030000Z-18d83e5bb7c0.json"},{"id":"public_break","words":"a public break with the federal government by a governor, general or senior law enforcement leader","plain":"A governor, a general or a top police leader breaks with the federal government in public","reason":"Leaders who command people breaking with the government is how a crisis spreads.","module":"homeland","module_name":"Homeland Baseline","kind":"editor","editor":true,"weight":1,"manipulation":{"how":"Commentary can read as a break when it is not one.","response":"Only the leader's own statement counts.","cost":"medium"},"state":"NOT EVALUATED","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","fetched_at":null,"receipt_url":"/api/v1/receipt/raw/scenario_eval/2026/11/06/030000Z-18d83e5bb7c0.json"},{"id":"guard_over_objection","words":"National Guard deployed over a governor's objection","plain":"The National Guard deploys in a state over its governor's objection","reason":"Federal and state power in open conflict is a sharp sign of a breakdown.","module":"homeland","module_name":"Homeland Baseline","kind":"editor","editor":true,"weight":1,"manipulation":{"how":"Orders and objections are not always public.","response":"Only an order and a governor's public objection, both on the record, count.","cost":"high"},"state":"NOT EVALUATED","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","fetched_at":null,"receipt_url":"/api/v1/receipt/raw/scenario_eval/2026/11/06/030000Z-18d83e5bb7c0.json"},{"id":"tfr_state_capital","words":"TFR over a state capital","plain":"A new security flight restriction over a state capital","reason":"Security flight restrictions over a capital come with threats to the people who govern there.","module":"sky","module_name":"Sky Watch","kind":"event","editor":false,"weight":1,"manipulation":{"how":"Routine VIP and sports flight restrictions look like signals.","response":"The reason field is parsed: only security and national defense restrictions count.","cost":"high"},"state":"LIT","confidence":"MODERATE","confidence_reason":"One source graded B2 or better.","why":"Seen once in the last 2 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