{"scenario":{"id":"election-disruption","name":"Election disruption","about":"Signs that an election, its count or its certification is under attack.","page_path":"/scenarios/election-disruption","elevated_at":3,"mayday_at":4,"evaluated_at":"2026-11-06T03:00:00.000Z","lit":1,"not_lit":1,"not_evaluated":3,"total":5,"counted":false,"reaches":"NORMAL","contribution":"NORMAL","modules_lit":["Sky Watch"],"words":"1 of 5 signs lit.","why":"1 of 5 signs lit, from 1 module. 3 not evaluated.","stale":false,"receipt":{"source_url":"https://www.maydaypizza.com/api/v1/scenarios/election-disruption","fetched_at":"2026-11-06T02:05:29.074Z","raw_key":"raw/scenario_eval/2026/11/06/030000Z-6a07f8154758.json","receipt_url":"/api/v1/receipt/raw/scenario_eval/2026/11/06/030000Z-6a07f8154758.json"},"flips_24h":[],"flips_since":null,"previous":null,"assumptions":["Advisories in several states share a cause.","A swing on a certified-result market reflects new information, not thin trading."],"alternatives":[{"explanation":"Routine guidance in election season.","would_confirm":"A notice that matches the agency's usual calendar of notices before an election."},{"explanation":"A close count, not a disruption.","would_confirm":"Counting on schedule, with officials agreeing on the process."},{"explanation":"Protests over another issue.","would_confirm":"Protest reports that name a cause that is not the election."}],"alternatives_first":false,"gaps":["State election office notices until an editor marks them.","FBI announcements until an editor marks them.","Private threats to election workers.","Election offices in 3 or more states post warnings: needs an editor. No mark yet.","Betting odds on a certified election result swing 15 points or more in a day: no readings yet.","Far more protest news in the US than normal: still learning what normal looks like."],"weight_lit":1,"weight_total":5,"lr_product":1,"modules":{"sky":{"name":"Sky Watch","lit":1,"total":1},"pulse":{"name":"World Pulse","lit":0,"total":2},"homeland":{"name":"Homeland Baseline","lit":0,"total":2}},"signs":[{"id":"election_psa","words":"CISA or FBI election PSA","plain":"CISA or the FBI warns the public about a threat to an election","reason":"Federal warnings about an election come when agencies see an active threat.","module":"homeland","module_name":"Homeland Baseline","kind":"any","editor":true,"weight":1,"manipulation":{"how":"Agencies publish routine guidance before every election.","response":"Only a warning about an active threat counts, not routine guidance. FBI warnings are marked by an editor.","cost":"high"},"state":"NOT LIT","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"Part of this sign has no data.","why":"CISA election advisory: none in the last week. FBI warning, marked by an editor: needs an editor. No mark yet.","fetched_at":"2026-11-05T23:10:29.074Z","receipt_url":"/api/v1/receipt/raw/scenario_eval/2026/11/06/030000Z-6a07f8154758.json"},{"id":"election_office_advisories","words":"election-office advisories in 3 or more states","plain":"Election offices in 3 or more states post warnings","reason":"Warnings in several states at once point to one cause, not a local problem.","module":"homeland","module_name":"Homeland Baseline","kind":"editor","editor":true,"weight":1,"manipulation":{"how":"Offices post routine notices in every election.","response":"Three or more states with notices about the same disruption, marked by an editor.","cost":"medium"},"state":"NOT EVALUATED","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","fetched_at":null,"receipt_url":"/api/v1/receipt/raw/scenario_eval/2026/11/06/030000Z-6a07f8154758.json"},{"id":"certified_market_swing","words":"Kalshi or Polymarket odds swing over 15 points on a certified-result market","plain":"Betting odds on a certified election result swing 15 points or more in a day","reason":"A big swing on whether a result will be certified means traders see a fight over it.","module":"pulse","module_name":"World Pulse","kind":"metric","editor":false,"weight":1,"manipulation":{"how":"A Columbia study estimated about a quarter of Polymarket volume was wash trading, and a thin market moves on little money.","response":"Price, never volume. A minimum open interest. Two markets must agree, and Kalshi, which is regulated, outranks Polymarket on the same question.","cost":"medium"},"state":"NOT EVALUATED","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","why":"No readings yet.","fetched_at":null,"receipt_url":"/api/v1/receipt/raw/scenario_eval/2026/11/06/030000Z-6a07f8154758.json"},{"id":"us_protest_over_baseline","words":"GDELT US protest events over baseline","plain":"Far more protest news in the US than normal","reason":"Mass protest is how a fight over an election spills into the street.","module":"pulse","module_name":"World Pulse","kind":"metric","editor":false,"weight":1,"manipulation":{"how":"State media can flood a country's event count, and machine coding misfires.","response":"Volume at country level only, never a single event. Checked against ACLED weekly.","cost":"low"},"state":"NOT EVALUATED","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","why":"Still learning what normal looks like.","fetched_at":"2026-11-06T02:05:29.074Z","receipt_url":"/api/v1/receipt/raw/scenario_eval/2026/11/06/030000Z-6a07f8154758.json"},{"id":"tfr_state_capital","words":"TFR over a state capital","plain":"A new security flight restriction over a state capital","reason":"Security flight restrictions over a capital come with certification fights and protests there.","module":"sky","module_name":"Sky Watch","kind":"event","editor":false,"weight":1,"manipulation":{"how":"Routine VIP and sports flight restrictions look like signals.","response":"The reason field is parsed: only security and national defense restrictions count.","cost":"high"},"state":"LIT","confidence":"MODERATE","confidence_reason":"One source graded B2 or better.","why":"Seen once in the last 2 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