{"scenario":{"id":"great-power-escalation","name":"Great-power escalation","about":"Signs that a crisis between nuclear powers is getting worse.","page_path":"/scenarios/great-power-escalation","elevated_at":3,"mayday_at":5,"evaluated_at":"2026-11-06T03:00:00.000Z","lit":1,"not_lit":1,"not_evaluated":5,"total":7,"counted":false,"reaches":"NORMAL","contribution":"NORMAL","modules_lit":["Follow the Money"],"words":"1 of 7 signs lit.","why":"1 of 7 signs lit, from 1 module. 5 not evaluated.","stale":false,"receipt":{"source_url":"https://www.maydaypizza.com/api/v1/scenarios/great-power-escalation","fetched_at":"2026-11-06T02:55:29.074Z","raw_key":"raw/scenario_eval/2026/11/06/030000Z-4018bf8f1ecc.json","receipt_url":"/api/v1/receipt/raw/scenario_eval/2026/11/06/030000Z-4018bf8f1ecc.json"},"flips_24h":[],"flips_since":null,"previous":null,"assumptions":["Reports of dispersal and of submarines at sea reflect real movements, not a planned signal.","Command aircraft flying off-hours reflect alert posture, not training.","Oil and shipping moves come from war risk, not from supply news."],"alternatives":[{"explanation":"Deliberate signaling: a show of force meant to deter, with no plan to fight.","would_confirm":"Official statements announcing the deployment, and no change in alert posture."},{"explanation":"A scheduled strategic exercise, such as a nuclear command exercise.","would_confirm":"A published exercise name and dates that match the activity."},{"explanation":"A shipping or oil shock with a cause that is not military, such as an accident in a strait.","would_confirm":"An investigation or an official statement that names the cause."}],"alternatives_first":false,"gaps":["Submarine positions.","Nuclear alert levels.","Diplomatic channels.","UKMTO warnings, Joint War Committee lists and UN Security Council sessions until an editor marks them.","Two credible outlets report nuclear bombers moved to other bases, or more submarines at sea: needs an editor. No mark yet.","An airborne command post flying at an unusual hour: still learning what normal looks like.","A warning to ships in a major strait: nGA navigational warning: the NGA navigational warnings feed has not run yet. UKMTO warning, marked by an editor: needs an editor. No mark yet.","Marine insurers add a sea area to their war risk list: needs an editor. No mark yet.","The UN Security Council holds an emergency session: needs an editor. No mark yet."],"weight_lit":1,"weight_total":7,"lr_product":1,"modules":{"sky":{"name":"Sky Watch","lit":0,"total":3},"money":{"name":"Follow the Money","lit":1,"total":2},"pulse":{"name":"World Pulse","lit":0,"total":2}},"signs":[{"id":"bomber_sub_reports","words":"Nuclear-capable bombers dispersed or a submarine surge, reported by two credible outlets","plain":"Two credible outlets report nuclear bombers moved to other bases, or more submarines at sea","reason":"Dispersal and a surge at sea protect forces from a first strike. Powers do it when they fear one.","module":"sky","module_name":"Sky Watch","kind":"editor","editor":true,"weight":1,"manipulation":{"how":"A planted story, or one source repeated by many outlets, can look like two reports.","response":"Two outlets with their own sourcing. An editor marks it with a reason.","cost":"medium"},"state":"NOT EVALUATED","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","fetched_at":null,"receipt_url":"/api/v1/receipt/raw/scenario_eval/2026/11/06/030000Z-4018bf8f1ecc.json"},{"id":"command_aircraft_offhours","words":"E-4B or E-6B airborne off-hours","plain":"An airborne command post flying at an unusual hour","reason":"Airborne command posts go up when leaders fear an attack on command centers on the ground.","module":"sky","module_name":"Sky Watch","kind":"metric","editor":false,"weight":1,"manipulation":{"how":"Military aircraft fly dark or with blocked positions, so a quiet map proves nothing. A community feed can also carry spoofed positions.","response":"Only positive signals count, and absence is never a sign. The count is scored against its own baseline for that hour of the week.","cost":"medium"},"state":"NOT EVALUATED","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","why":"Still learning what normal looks like.","fetched_at":"2026-11-06T02:55:29.074Z","receipt_url":"/api/v1/receipt/raw/scenario_eval/2026/11/06/030000Z-4018bf8f1ecc.json"},{"id":"state_departure_or_level4","words":"State Department ordered departure or Level 4 for a G20 country","plain":"The State Department orders staff out of a country, or tells Americans not to travel to a G20 country","reason":"An ordered departure, or Level 4 for a major power, means the government expects danger to Americans there.","module":"pulse","module_name":"World Pulse","kind":"event","editor":false,"weight":1,"manipulation":{"how":"Advisories follow embassy staffing and politics as well as danger.","response":"Only an ordered departure, or a new Level 4 for a G20 country, counts.","cost":"high"},"state":"NOT LIT","confidence":"MODERATE","confidence_reason":"One source graded B2 or better.","why":"None in the last 3 days.","fetched_at":"2026-11-05T13:15:29.074Z","receipt_url":"/api/v1/receipt/raw/scenario_eval/2026/11/06/030000Z-4018bf8f1ecc.json"},{"id":"strait_warning","words":"NAVAREA or UKMTO warning in a major strait","plain":"A warning to ships in a major strait","reason":"Warnings to shipping in Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb, Malacca, the Taiwan Strait or the Bosphorus come before and during naval action.","module":"sky","module_name":"Sky Watch","kind":"any","editor":true,"weight":1,"manipulation":{"how":"Routine warnings for cable work, exercises and drifting objects share the same feed.","response":"Only warnings for a major strait count. UKMTO has no feed yet, so an editor marks its warnings.","cost":"high"},"state":"NOT EVALUATED","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","why":"NGA navigational warning: the NGA navigational warnings feed has not run yet. UKMTO warning, marked by an editor: needs an editor. No mark yet.","fetched_at":null,"receipt_url":"/api/v1/receipt/raw/scenario_eval/2026/11/06/030000Z-4018bf8f1ecc.json"},{"id":"jwc_listed_area","words":"Joint War Committee adds a listed area","plain":"Marine insurers add a sea area to their war risk list","reason":"Insurers price war risk with their own money. A new listed area means they expect attacks on ships there.","module":"money","module_name":"Follow the Money","kind":"editor","editor":true,"weight":1,"manipulation":{"how":"Listed areas change slowly and follow insurers' risk models, not only war.","response":"An editor marks it from the Joint War Committee circular, with its date.","cost":"high"},"state":"NOT EVALUATED","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","why":"Needs an editor. No mark yet.","fetched_at":null,"receipt_url":"/api/v1/receipt/raw/scenario_eval/2026/11/06/030000Z-4018bf8f1ecc.json"},{"id":"oil_jump","words":"oil up 8% or more in a day","plain":"Oil prices up 8% or more in a day","reason":"Markets price a threat to supply before it happens. A one-day jump this size is rare.","module":"money","module_name":"Follow the Money","kind":"metric","editor":false,"weight":1,"manipulation":{"how":"Supply news, such as an OPEC decision or a refinery outage, moves oil with no war.","response":"A one-day move of 8% or more only, read with the other signs.","cost":"high"},"state":"LIT","confidence":"MODERATE","confidence_reason":"One source graded B2 or better.","why":"Oil: up 8.7% from the day before.","fetched_at":"2026-11-05T13:25:29.074Z","receipt_url":"/api/v1/receipt/raw/scenario_eval/2026/11/06/030000Z-4018bf8f1ecc.json"},{"id":"unsc_emergency","words":"emergency UN Security Council session","plain":"The UN Security Council holds an emergency session","reason":"Emergency sessions are called when a crisis between members turns dangerous.","module":"pulse","module_name":"World Pulse","kind":"editor","editor":true,"weight":1,"manipulation":{"how":"Sessions are called for many reasons, some of them routine.","response":"Only an emergency session called on the crisis counts. An editor marks it from the UN notice.","cost":"high"},"state":"NOT EVALUATED","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","why":"Needs an editor. No mark 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