{"scenario":{"id":"us-strike-abroad","name":"US military strike abroad","about":"Signs that the United States is about to strike, or has just struck, a target in another country.","page_path":"/scenarios/us-strike-abroad","elevated_at":4,"mayday_at":6,"evaluated_at":"2026-11-06T03:00:00.000Z","lit":0,"not_lit":1,"not_evaluated":6,"total":7,"counted":false,"reaches":"NORMAL","contribution":"NORMAL","modules_lit":[],"words":"0 of 7 signs lit.","why":"0 of 7 signs lit. 6 not evaluated.","stale":false,"receipt":{"source_url":"https://www.maydaypizza.com/api/v1/scenarios/us-strike-abroad","fetched_at":"2026-11-06T02:55:29.074Z","raw_key":"raw/scenario_eval/2026/11/06/030000Z-d559445ccd7a.json","receipt_url":"/api/v1/receipt/raw/scenario_eval/2026/11/06/030000Z-d559445ccd7a.json"},"flips_24h":[],"flips_since":null,"previous":null,"assumptions":["Late-night activity at command sites means planning, not a budget deadline or a drill.","Tankers and command aircraft fly for an operation, not for a scheduled exercise.","A jump in a strike market comes from new information, not from one large trader."],"alternatives":[{"explanation":"A planned exercise or readiness drill.","would_confirm":"A published exercise notice, or the same pattern on the same dates last year."},{"explanation":"A crisis that ends without a strike, such as an evacuation or a hostage recovery.","would_confirm":"An official statement about an evacuation or a recovery, or an ordered departure for the country."},{"explanation":"A budget deadline or a domestic emergency keeps the command sites busy.","would_confirm":"A funding deadline or a named domestic emergency in the same window."}],"alternatives_first":false,"gaps":["Classified movements and orders.","Aircraft that fly without ADS-B or with blocked positions.","Encrypted communications.","Anything that is not on a public feed.","Food places near the Pentagon are at MAYDAY: not enough data in the last hour.","Food places near the White House are at MAYDAY: not enough data in the last hour.","Far more tanker planes than normal over one region: still learning what normal looks like.","An airborne command post flying at an unusual hour: still learning what normal looks like.","Betting odds on a US strike up 15 points or more in a day: no readings yet.","News about the target country turns far darker than normal: no readings yet."],"weight_lit":0,"weight_total":7,"lr_product":1,"modules":{"mayday":{"name":"Mayday Index","lit":0,"total":2},"sky":{"name":"Sky Watch","lit":0,"total":3},"pulse":{"name":"World Pulse","lit":0,"total":2}},"signs":[{"id":"pentagon_ring","words":"Pentagon ring MAYDAY","plain":"Food places near the Pentagon are at MAYDAY","reason":"Late-night food orders near the Pentagon can mean staff working through the night on an operation.","module":"mayday","module_name":"Mayday Index","kind":"alert","editor":false,"weight":1,"manipulation":{"how":"The theory is public, and the Pentagon has denied it: the building has its own late-night vendors, and nobody had published how often spikes come with nothing going on. One actor can flood crowd reports.","response":"Low weight and never alone. We publish the base rate ourselves. Turnstile, one report per address per venue per day, the median and a three-venue minimum.","cost":"low"},"state":"NOT EVALUATED","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","why":"Not enough data in the last hour.","fetched_at":null,"receipt_url":"/api/v1/receipt/raw/scenario_eval/2026/11/06/030000Z-d559445ccd7a.json"},{"id":"white_house_ring","words":"White House ring MAYDAY","plain":"Food places near the White House are at MAYDAY","reason":"Late nights at the White House and the EEOB come with decisions on the use of force.","module":"mayday","module_name":"Mayday Index","kind":"alert","editor":false,"weight":1,"manipulation":{"how":"The theory is public and the base rate of spikes with nothing going on was never published. One actor can flood crowd reports.","response":"Low weight and never alone. We publish the base rate ourselves. Turnstile, one report per address per venue per day, the median and a three-venue minimum.","cost":"low"},"state":"NOT EVALUATED","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","why":"Not enough data in the last hour.","fetched_at":null,"receipt_url":"/api/v1/receipt/raw/scenario_eval/2026/11/06/030000Z-d559445ccd7a.json"},{"id":"tanker_surge","words":"tanker surge over a region","plain":"Far more tanker planes than normal over one region","reason":"Strikes far from home need fuel in the air. A surge over the Atlantic or the Gulf is a classic sign before a strike.","module":"sky","module_name":"Sky Watch","kind":"metric","editor":false,"weight":1,"manipulation":{"how":"Military aircraft fly dark or with blocked positions, so a quiet map proves nothing. A community feed can also carry spoofed positions.","response":"Only positive signals count, and absence is never a sign. A count must be far over its own baseline twice in a row, or once by a wide margin.","cost":"medium"},"state":"NOT EVALUATED","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","why":"Still learning what normal looks like.","fetched_at":"2026-11-06T02:55:29.074Z","receipt_url":"/api/v1/receipt/raw/scenario_eval/2026/11/06/030000Z-d559445ccd7a.json"},{"id":"command_aircraft_offhours","words":"E-4B or E-6B airborne off-hours","plain":"An airborne command post flying at an unusual hour","reason":"The E-4B and E-6B carry national command and control. Flying at an odd hour, or more of them than usual at once, means a change in posture.","module":"sky","module_name":"Sky Watch","kind":"metric","editor":false,"weight":1,"manipulation":{"how":"Military aircraft fly dark or with blocked positions, so a quiet map proves nothing. A community feed can also carry spoofed positions.","response":"Only positive signals count, and absence is never a sign. The count is scored against its own baseline for that hour of the week.","cost":"medium"},"state":"NOT EVALUATED","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","why":"Still learning what normal looks like.","fetched_at":"2026-11-06T02:55:29.074Z","receipt_url":"/api/v1/receipt/raw/scenario_eval/2026/11/06/030000Z-d559445ccd7a.json"},{"id":"strike_market_jump","words":"Kalshi or Polymarket strike market up 15 points in 24 h","plain":"Betting odds on a US strike up 15 points or more in a day","reason":"People with money at stake move fast on news they can see. A fast jump on a strike question means they see something.","module":"pulse","module_name":"World Pulse","kind":"metric","editor":false,"weight":1,"manipulation":{"how":"A Columbia study estimated about a quarter of Polymarket volume was wash trading, and a thin market moves on little money.","response":"Price, never volume. A minimum open interest. Two markets must agree, and Kalshi, which is regulated, outranks Polymarket on the same question.","cost":"medium"},"state":"NOT EVALUATED","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","why":"No readings yet.","fetched_at":null,"receipt_url":"/api/v1/receipt/raw/scenario_eval/2026/11/06/030000Z-d559445ccd7a.json"},{"id":"target_tone_drop","words":"GDELT tone drop for the target country","plain":"News about the target country turns far darker than normal","reason":"Coverage turns hostile before and during a strike. The target is a country a tracked strike market names.","module":"pulse","module_name":"World Pulse","kind":"metric","editor":false,"weight":1,"manipulation":{"how":"State media can flood a country's event count, and machine coding misfires.","response":"Tone and volume at country level only, never a single event. Checked against ACLED weekly.","cost":"low"},"state":"NOT EVALUATED","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"No data to judge.","why":"No readings yet.","fetched_at":null,"receipt_url":"/api/v1/receipt/raw/scenario_eval/2026/11/06/030000Z-d559445ccd7a.json"},{"id":"dc_tfr_or_exec_aircraft","words":"DC TFR or executive aircraft moving","plain":"A new security flight restriction over Washington, or executive jets flying far more than normal","reason":"Airspace over the capital closes and leaders move when a decision is near.","module":"sky","module_name":"Sky Watch","kind":"any","editor":false,"weight":1,"manipulation":{"how":"Routine VIP and sports flight restrictions look like signals, and executive jets fly every day on routine trips.","response":"Only security and national defense restrictions count. Executive jets count only when far over their own baseline.","cost":"high"},"state":"NOT LIT","confidence":"LOW","confidence_reason":"Part of this sign has no data.","why":"Security flight restriction over Washington: none in the last 2 days. Executive jets: still learning what normal looks 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