Scenario
CHECKEDDomestic instability
Signs of a breakdown in how US governments, courts and security forces work together.
The count
NORMAL1 of 6 signs lit.
Not enough signs lit to change the status.
1 of 6 signs lit, from 1 module. 5 not evaluated.
- ELEVATED at
- 3 of 6 signs lit
- MAYDAY at
- 5 of 6 signs lit
- Not evaluated
- 5
- Modules lit
- Sky Watch
- Weighted
- 1.0 of 6.0
- Likelihood ratio
- 1.0
- Checked
Counts are for reading. The status line uses each sign's likelihood ratio: how much more often it lit before a real event than on a normal day. Every weight is 1.0 until the backtest learns them, so today the two agree. A scenario counts only with lit signs from two or more modules.
Signs
6 SIGNSLit means the sign's metric crossed its bar. Not lit means it did not. Not evaluated means we had no data to judge, which is not the same as not lit.
NOT EVALUATED More threats or attacks on officials and judges than normal
Needs an editor. No mark yet.
Confidence LOW: No data to judge.
WHY IT IS A SIGN, AND HOW IT CAN BE GAMED
Violence against officials rises before and during a breakdown.
HOW IT CAN BE GAMED Charges lag events by weeks, and reporting varies by district.
WHAT WE DO An editor marks it from DOJ releases or ACLED counts over baseline until those feeds exist.
Cost to game it: medium.
NOT EVALUATED More armed demonstrations than normal
Needs an editor. No mark yet.
Confidence LOW: No data to judge.
WHY IT IS A SIGN, AND HOW IT CAN BE GAMED
Armed crowds raise the chance that a protest turns violent.
HOW IT CAN BE GAMED Event coders differ on what counts as armed.
WHAT WE DO ACLED counts over baseline only, marked by an editor until the keys exist.
Cost to game it: medium.
NOT EVALUATED A state or an official refuses to certify a result or obey a court order
Needs an editor. No mark yet.
Confidence LOW: No data to judge.
WHY IT IS A SIGN, AND HOW IT CAN BE GAMED
Refusing a result or a court order breaks the rules everyone else follows.
HOW IT CAN BE GAMED Statements can be walked back within hours.
WHAT WE DO Only a formal refusal on the record counts: a vote, a filing or an order.
Cost to game it: medium.
NOT EVALUATED A governor, a general or a top police leader breaks with the federal government in public
Needs an editor. No mark yet.
Confidence LOW: No data to judge.
WHY IT IS A SIGN, AND HOW IT CAN BE GAMED
Leaders who command people breaking with the government is how a crisis spreads.
HOW IT CAN BE GAMED Commentary can read as a break when it is not one.
WHAT WE DO Only the leader's own statement counts.
Cost to game it: medium.
NOT EVALUATED The National Guard deploys in a state over its governor's objection
Needs an editor. No mark yet.
Confidence LOW: No data to judge.
WHY IT IS A SIGN, AND HOW IT CAN BE GAMED
Federal and state power in open conflict is a sharp sign of a breakdown.
HOW IT CAN BE GAMED Orders and objections are not always public.
WHAT WE DO Only an order and a governor's public objection, both on the record, count.
Cost to game it: high.
LIT A new security flight restriction over a state capital
Seen once in the last 2 days.
Confidence MODERATE: One source graded B2 or better.
WHY IT IS A SIGN, AND HOW IT CAN BE GAMED
Security flight restrictions over a capital come with threats to the people who govern there.
HOW IT CAN BE GAMED Routine VIP and sports flight restrictions look like signals.
WHAT WE DO The reason field is parsed: only security and national defense restrictions count.
Cost to game it: high.
What we cannot see
COLLECTION GAPS- ACLED data until its keys exist.
- Threats that never become a public charge.
- Private talks between officials.
- More threats or attacks on officials and judges than normal: needs an editor. No mark yet.
- More armed demonstrations than normal: needs an editor. No mark yet.
- A state or an official refuses to certify a result or obey a court order: needs an editor. No mark yet.
- A governor, a general or a top police leader breaks with the federal government in public: needs an editor. No mark yet.
- The National Guard deploys in a state over its governor's objection: needs an editor. No mark yet.
Key assumptions
- Threats, refusals and deployments in the same window are linked.
- Reports of a refusal come from the officials themselves or from court records, not from commentary.
Other explanations
WHAT WOULD CONFIRM EACHA hard but lawful dispute that the courts settle.
Would confirm it: Court rulings that every side follows within days.
A planned large event, such as an inauguration or a summit, that brings flight restrictions and Guard deployments.
Would confirm it: A published event schedule that explains the restriction and the deployment.
Local unrest that stays local.
Would confirm it: Activity in one city, with state and federal officials in agreement.
Sources
ADMIRALTY GRADES- Mayday Desk editor: B2 (usually reliable, probably true)
- FAA flight restrictions: A2 (completely reliable, probably true)