Payload
JSON, PRETTY-PRINTED{
"scenario_id": "great-power-escalation",
"name": "Great-power escalation",
"evaluated_at": "2026-11-06T00:00:00.000Z",
"lit": 1,
"not_lit": 1,
"not_evaluated": 5,
"total": 7,
"modules": {
"mayday": {
"lit": 0,
"total": 0
},
"sky": {
"lit": 0,
"total": 3
},
"money": {
"lit": 1,
"total": 2
},
"pulse": {
"lit": 0,
"total": 2
},
"homeland": {
"lit": 0,
"total": 0
}
},
"modules_lit": [
"money"
],
"counted": false,
"weight_lit": 1,
"weight_total": 7,
"lr_product": 1,
"elevated_at": 3,
"mayday_at": 5,
"reaches": "NORMAL",
"contribution": "NORMAL",
"why": "1 of 7 signs lit, from 1 module. 5 not evaluated.",
"gaps": [
"Submarine positions.",
"Nuclear alert levels.",
"Diplomatic channels.",
"UKMTO warnings, Joint War Committee lists and UN Security Council sessions until an editor marks them.",
"Two credible outlets report nuclear bombers moved to other bases, or more submarines at sea: needs an editor. No mark yet.",
"An airborne command post flying at an unusual hour: still learning what normal looks like.",
"A warning to ships in a major strait: nGA navigational warning: the NGA navigational warnings feed has not run yet. UKMTO warning, marked by an editor: needs an editor. No mark yet.",
"Marine insurers add a sea area to their war risk list: needs an editor. No mark yet.",
"The UN Security Council holds an emergency session: needs an editor. No mark yet."
],
"signs": [
{
"sign_id": "bomber_sub_reports",
"scenario_id": "great-power-escalation",
"words": "Nuclear-capable bombers dispersed or a submarine surge, reported by two credible outlets",
"plain": "Two credible outlets report nuclear bombers moved to other bases, or more submarines at sea",
"module": "sky",
"kind": "editor",
"state": "NOT EVALUATED",
"confidence": "LOW",
"confidence_reason": "No data to judge.",
"why": "Needs an editor. No mark yet.",
"weight": 1,
"evaluated_at": "2026-11-06T00:00:00.000Z",
"fetched_at": null,
"findings": [],
"inputs": []
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{
"sign_id": "command_aircraft_offhours",
"scenario_id": "great-power-escalation",
"words": "E-4B or E-6B airborne off-hours",
"plain": "An airborne command post flying at an unusual hour",
"module": "sky",
"kind": "metric",
"state": "NOT EVALUATED",
"confidence": "LOW",
"confidence_reason": "No data to judge.",
"why": "Still learning what normal looks like.",
"weight": 1,
"evaluated_at": "2026-11-06T00:00:00.000Z",
"fetched_at": "2026-11-05T23:55:29.074Z",
"findings": [
{
"key": "national_command:pacific",
"label": "Command aircraft over the Pacific",
"measure": "z",
"value": null,
"bar": null,
"lit": false,
"ts": null
},
{
"key": "national_command:gulf",
"label": "Command aircraft over the Gulf",
"measure": "z",
"value": null,
"bar": null,
"lit": false,
"ts": null
},
{
"key": "national_command:europe",
"label": "Command aircraft over Europe",
"measure": "z",
"value": null,
"bar": null,
"lit": false,
"ts": null
},
{
"key": "national_command:conus",
"label": "Command aircraft over the US",
"measure": "z",
"value": null,
"bar": null,
"lit": false,
"ts": null
},
{
"key": "national_command:atlantic",
"label": "Command aircraft over the Atlantic",
"measure": "z",
"value": null,
"bar": null,
"lit": false,
"ts": null
}
],
"inputs": [
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"db": "sky",
"metric": "class_count",
"key": "national_command:pacific",
"ts": "2026-11-05T23:55:31.006Z",
"value": 0,
"z": null,
"baseline": null,
"source": "adsb_lol",
"source_url": "https://api.adsb.lol/v2/mil",
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{
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"z": null,
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{
"type": "reading",
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"key": "national_command:conus",
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{
"type": "reading",
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"metric": "class_count",
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"ts": "2026-11-05T23:55:31.006Z",
"value": 0,
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]
},
{
"sign_id": "state_departure_or_level4",
"scenario_id": "great-power-escalation",
"words": "State Department ordered departure or Level 4 for a G20 country",
"plain": "The State Department orders staff out of a country, or tells Americans not to travel to a G20 country",
"module": "pulse",
"kind": "event",
"state": "NOT LIT",
"confidence": "MODERATE",
"confidence_reason": "One source graded B2 or better.",
"why": "None in the last 3 days.",
"weight": 1,
"evaluated_at": "2026-11-06T00:00:00.000Z",
"fetched_at": "2026-11-05T13:15:29.074Z",
"findings": [],
"inputs": [
{
"type": "source_run",
"source": "state_advisories",
"status": "ok",
"last_ok_at": "2026-11-05T13:15:38.282Z",
"source_url": "https://cadataapi.state.gov/api/TravelAdvisories",
"fetched_at": "2026-11-05T13:15:29.074Z",
"raw_key": "raw/state_advisories/2026/11/05/131529Z-8eda2365936b.json"
}
]
},
{
"sign_id": "strait_warning",
"scenario_id": "great-power-escalation",
"words": "NAVAREA or UKMTO warning in a major strait",
"plain": "A warning to ships in a major strait",
"module": "sky",
"kind": "any",
"state": "NOT EVALUATED",
"confidence": "LOW",
"confidence_reason": "No data to judge.",
"why": "NGA navigational warning: the NGA navigational warnings feed has not run yet. UKMTO warning, marked by an editor: needs an editor. No mark yet.",
"weight": 1,
"evaluated_at": "2026-11-06T00:00:00.000Z",
"fetched_at": null,
"findings": [],
"inputs": []
},
{
"sign_id": "jwc_listed_area",
"scenario_id": "great-power-escalation",
"words": "Joint War Committee adds a listed area",
"plain": "Marine insurers add a sea area to their war risk list",
"module": "money",
"kind": "editor",
"state": "NOT EVALUATED",
"confidence": "LOW",
"confidence_reason": "No data to judge.",
"why": "Needs an editor. No mark yet.",
"weight": 1,
"evaluated_at": "2026-11-06T00:00:00.000Z",
"fetched_at": null,
"findings": [],
"inputs": []
},
{
"sign_id": "oil_jump",
"scenario_id": "great-power-escalation",
"words": "oil up 8% or more in a day",
"plain": "Oil prices up 8% or more in a day",
"module": "money",
"kind": "metric",
"state": "LIT",
"confidence": "MODERATE",
"confidence_reason": "One source graded B2 or better.",
"why": "Oil: up 8.7% from the day before.",
"weight": 1,
"evaluated_at": "2026-11-06T00:00:00.000Z",
"fetched_at": "2026-11-05T13:25:29.074Z",
"findings": [
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"key": "DCOILWTICO",
"label": "Oil",
"measure": "change",
"value": 8.68798,
"bar": 8,
"lit": true,
"ts": "2026-10-15T00:00:00.000Z"
}
],
"inputs": [
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"db": "core",
"metric": "oil_wti",
"key": "DCOILWTICO",
"ts": "2026-10-14T00:00:00.000Z",
"value": 96.34,
"z": null,
"baseline": null,
"source": "fred",
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"metric": "oil_wti",
"key": "DCOILWTICO",
"ts": "2026-10-15T00:00:00.000Z",
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}
]
},
{
"sign_id": "unsc_emergency",
"scenario_id": "great-power-escalation",
"words": "emergency UN Security Council session",
"plain": "The UN Security Council holds an emergency session",
"module": "pulse",
"kind": "editor",
"state": "NOT EVALUATED",
"confidence": "LOW",
"confidence_reason": "No data to judge.",
"why": "Needs an editor. No mark yet.",
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"version": "3b1a3fe432503d54a232e13103417d21775036b9"
}