Payload
JSON, PRETTY-PRINTED{
"scenario_id": "war-market-shock",
"name": "War-driven market shock",
"evaluated_at": "2026-11-06T00:00:00.000Z",
"lit": 0,
"not_lit": 1,
"not_evaluated": 4,
"total": 5,
"modules": {
"mayday": {
"lit": 0,
"total": 0
},
"sky": {
"lit": 0,
"total": 0
},
"money": {
"lit": 0,
"total": 4
},
"pulse": {
"lit": 0,
"total": 1
},
"homeland": {
"lit": 0,
"total": 0
}
},
"modules_lit": [],
"counted": false,
"weight_lit": 0,
"weight_total": 5,
"lr_product": 1,
"elevated_at": 3,
"mayday_at": 4,
"reaches": "NORMAL",
"contribution": "NORMAL",
"why": "0 of 5 signs lit. 4 not evaluated.",
"gaps": [
"Trades not filed yet: members of Congress report up to 45 days late.",
"Private and off-exchange trading.",
"Joint War Committee lists until an editor marks them.",
"Defense or energy funds move far more than normal in a day: no readings yet.",
"Stock market fear far above normal: still learning what normal looks like.",
"Marine insurers add a sea area to their war risk list: needs an editor. No mark yet.",
"Far more sanctions added than normal: no readings yet."
],
"signs": [
{
"sign_id": "etf_shock",
"scenario_id": "war-market-shock",
"words": "Defense or energy ETF move over 2 robust-z in a day",
"plain": "Defense or energy funds move far more than normal in a day",
"module": "money",
"kind": "metric",
"state": "NOT EVALUATED",
"confidence": "LOW",
"confidence_reason": "No data to judge.",
"why": "No readings yet.",
"weight": 1,
"evaluated_at": "2026-11-06T00:00:00.000Z",
"fetched_at": null,
"findings": [],
"inputs": []
},
{
"sign_id": "money_cluster",
"scenario_id": "war-market-shock",
"words": "Follow the Money cluster alert",
"plain": "Three or more public filers report buying or selling the same watched stock in the same week",
"module": "money",
"kind": "alert",
"state": "NOT LIT",
"confidence": "MODERATE",
"confidence_reason": "One source graded B2 or better.",
"why": "No alert in the last week.",
"weight": 1,
"evaluated_at": "2026-11-06T00:00:00.000Z",
"fetched_at": "2026-11-05T18:25:29.074Z",
"findings": [],
"inputs": [
{
"type": "source_run",
"source": "house_clerk",
"status": "ok",
"last_ok_at": "2026-11-05T18:26:08.401Z",
"source_url": "https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035555.pdf",
"fetched_at": "2026-11-05T18:25:29.074Z",
"raw_key": "raw/house_clerk/2026/11/05/182529Z-b40743d3787a.pdf"
}
]
},
{
"sign_id": "vix_over_baseline",
"scenario_id": "war-market-shock",
"words": "VIX over baseline",
"plain": "Stock market fear far above normal",
"module": "money",
"kind": "metric",
"state": "NOT EVALUATED",
"confidence": "LOW",
"confidence_reason": "No data to judge.",
"why": "Still learning what normal looks like.",
"weight": 1,
"evaluated_at": "2026-11-06T00:00:00.000Z",
"fetched_at": "2026-11-05T21:25:29.074Z",
"findings": [
{
"key": "VIXCLS",
"label": "Market fear (the VIX)",
"measure": "z",
"value": null,
"bar": null,
"lit": false,
"ts": null
}
],
"inputs": [
{
"type": "reading",
"db": "core",
"metric": "vix",
"key": "VIXCLS",
"ts": "2026-11-04T00:00:00.000Z",
"value": 16.61,
"z": null,
"baseline": null,
"source": "fred",
"source_url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=VIXCLS&cosd=2026-10-27",
"fetched_at": "2026-11-05T21:25:29.074Z",
"raw_key": "raw/fred/2026/11/05/212529Z-0eb2fafcc11b.csv"
}
]
},
{
"sign_id": "jwc_listed_area",
"scenario_id": "war-market-shock",
"words": "Joint War Committee listed area added",
"plain": "Marine insurers add a sea area to their war risk list",
"module": "money",
"kind": "editor",
"state": "NOT EVALUATED",
"confidence": "LOW",
"confidence_reason": "No data to judge.",
"why": "Needs an editor. No mark yet.",
"weight": 1,
"evaluated_at": "2026-11-06T00:00:00.000Z",
"fetched_at": null,
"findings": [],
"inputs": []
},
{
"sign_id": "sanctions_over_baseline",
"scenario_id": "war-market-shock",
"words": "sanctions adds over baseline",
"plain": "Far more sanctions added than normal",
"module": "pulse",
"kind": "metric",
"state": "NOT EVALUATED",
"confidence": "LOW",
"confidence_reason": "No data to judge.",
"why": "No readings yet.",
"weight": 1,
"evaluated_at": "2026-11-06T00:00:00.000Z",
"fetched_at": null,
"findings": [],
"inputs": []
}
],
"fetched_at": "2026-11-05T21:25:29.074Z",
"version": "3b1a3fe432503d54a232e13103417d21775036b9"
}