Scenario
CHECKEDElection disruption
Signs that an election, its count or its certification is under attack.
The count
NORMAL1 of 5 signs lit.
Not enough signs lit to change the status.
1 of 5 signs lit, from 1 module. 3 not evaluated.
- ELEVATED at
- 3 of 5 signs lit
- MAYDAY at
- 4 of 5 signs lit
- Not evaluated
- 3
- Modules lit
- Sky Watch
- Weighted
- 1.0 of 5.0
- Likelihood ratio
- 1.0
- Checked
Counts are for reading. The status line uses each sign's likelihood ratio: how much more often it lit before a real event than on a normal day. Every weight is 1.0 until the backtest learns them, so today the two agree. A scenario counts only with lit signs from two or more modules.
Signs
5 SIGNSLit means the sign's metric crossed its bar. Not lit means it did not. Not evaluated means we had no data to judge, which is not the same as not lit.
NOT LIT CISA or the FBI warns the public about a threat to an election
CISA election advisory: none in the last week. FBI warning, marked by an editor: needs an editor. No mark yet.
Confidence LOW: Part of this sign has no data.
WHY IT IS A SIGN, AND HOW IT CAN BE GAMED
Federal warnings about an election come when agencies see an active threat.
HOW IT CAN BE GAMED Agencies publish routine guidance before every election.
WHAT WE DO Only a warning about an active threat counts, not routine guidance. FBI warnings are marked by an editor.
Cost to game it: high.
NOT EVALUATED Election offices in 3 or more states post warnings
Needs an editor. No mark yet.
Confidence LOW: No data to judge.
WHY IT IS A SIGN, AND HOW IT CAN BE GAMED
Warnings in several states at once point to one cause, not a local problem.
HOW IT CAN BE GAMED Offices post routine notices in every election.
WHAT WE DO Three or more states with notices about the same disruption, marked by an editor.
Cost to game it: medium.
NOT EVALUATED Betting odds on a certified election result swing 15 points or more in a day
No readings yet.
Confidence LOW: No data to judge.
WHY IT IS A SIGN, AND HOW IT CAN BE GAMED
A big swing on whether a result will be certified means traders see a fight over it.
HOW IT CAN BE GAMED A Columbia study estimated about a quarter of Polymarket volume was wash trading, and a thin market moves on little money.
WHAT WE DO Price, never volume. A minimum open interest. Two markets must agree, and Kalshi, which is regulated, outranks Polymarket on the same question.
Cost to game it: medium.
NOT EVALUATED Far more protest news in the US than normal
Still learning what normal looks like.
Confidence LOW: No data to judge.
WHY IT IS A SIGN, AND HOW IT CAN BE GAMED
Mass protest is how a fight over an election spills into the street.
HOW IT CAN BE GAMED State media can flood a country's event count, and machine coding misfires.
WHAT WE DO Volume at country level only, never a single event. Checked against ACLED weekly.
Cost to game it: low.
LIT A new security flight restriction over a state capital
Seen once in the last 2 days.
Confidence MODERATE: One source graded B2 or better.
WHY IT IS A SIGN, AND HOW IT CAN BE GAMED
Security flight restrictions over a capital come with certification fights and protests there.
HOW IT CAN BE GAMED Routine VIP and sports flight restrictions look like signals.
WHAT WE DO The reason field is parsed: only security and national defense restrictions count.
Cost to game it: high.
What we cannot see
COLLECTION GAPS- State election office notices until an editor marks them.
- FBI announcements until an editor marks them.
- Private threats to election workers.
- Election offices in 3 or more states post warnings: needs an editor. No mark yet.
- Betting odds on a certified election result swing 15 points or more in a day: no readings yet.
- Far more protest news in the US than normal: still learning what normal looks like.
Key assumptions
- Advisories in several states share a cause.
- A swing on a certified-result market reflects new information, not thin trading.
Other explanations
WHAT WOULD CONFIRM EACHRoutine guidance in election season.
Would confirm it: A notice that matches the agency's usual calendar of notices before an election.
A close count, not a disruption.
Would confirm it: Counting on schedule, with officials agreeing on the process.
Protests over another issue.
Would confirm it: Protest reports that name a cause that is not the election.
Sources
ADMIRALTY GRADES- CISA advisories: A2 (completely reliable, probably true)
- Mayday Desk editor: B2 (usually reliable, probably true)
- Kalshi: C3 (fairly reliable, possibly true)
- Polymarket: C3 (fairly reliable, possibly true)
- GDELT: C3 (fairly reliable, possibly true)
- FAA flight restrictions: A2 (completely reliable, probably true)