Payload
JSON, PRETTY-PRINTED{
"scenario_id": "election-disruption",
"name": "Election disruption",
"evaluated_at": "2026-11-06T00:00:00.000Z",
"lit": 1,
"not_lit": 1,
"not_evaluated": 3,
"total": 5,
"modules": {
"mayday": {
"lit": 0,
"total": 0
},
"sky": {
"lit": 1,
"total": 1
},
"money": {
"lit": 0,
"total": 0
},
"pulse": {
"lit": 0,
"total": 2
},
"homeland": {
"lit": 0,
"total": 2
}
},
"modules_lit": [
"sky"
],
"counted": false,
"weight_lit": 1,
"weight_total": 5,
"lr_product": 1,
"elevated_at": 3,
"mayday_at": 4,
"reaches": "NORMAL",
"contribution": "NORMAL",
"why": "1 of 5 signs lit, from 1 module. 3 not evaluated.",
"gaps": [
"State election office notices until an editor marks them.",
"FBI announcements until an editor marks them.",
"Private threats to election workers.",
"Election offices in 3 or more states post warnings: needs an editor. No mark yet.",
"Betting odds on a certified election result swing 15 points or more in a day: no readings yet.",
"Far more protest news in the US than normal: still learning what normal looks like."
],
"signs": [
{
"sign_id": "election_psa",
"scenario_id": "election-disruption",
"words": "CISA or FBI election PSA",
"plain": "CISA or the FBI warns the public about a threat to an election",
"module": "homeland",
"kind": "any",
"state": "NOT LIT",
"confidence": "LOW",
"confidence_reason": "Part of this sign has no data.",
"why": "CISA election advisory: none in the last week. FBI warning, marked by an editor: needs an editor. No mark yet.",
"weight": 1,
"evaluated_at": "2026-11-06T00:00:00.000Z",
"fetched_at": "2026-11-05T23:10:29.074Z",
"findings": [],
"inputs": [
{
"type": "source_run",
"source": "cisa_advisories",
"status": "ok",
"last_ok_at": "2026-11-05T23:10:38.655Z",
"source_url": "https://www.cisa.gov/cybersecurity-advisories/all.xml",
"fetched_at": "2026-11-05T23:10:29.074Z",
"raw_key": "raw/cisa_advisories/2026/11/05/231029Z-e4ee191d5b2e.xml"
}
]
},
{
"sign_id": "election_office_advisories",
"scenario_id": "election-disruption",
"words": "election-office advisories in 3 or more states",
"plain": "Election offices in 3 or more states post warnings",
"module": "homeland",
"kind": "editor",
"state": "NOT EVALUATED",
"confidence": "LOW",
"confidence_reason": "No data to judge.",
"why": "Needs an editor. No mark yet.",
"weight": 1,
"evaluated_at": "2026-11-06T00:00:00.000Z",
"fetched_at": null,
"findings": [],
"inputs": []
},
{
"sign_id": "certified_market_swing",
"scenario_id": "election-disruption",
"words": "Kalshi or Polymarket odds swing over 15 points on a certified-result market",
"plain": "Betting odds on a certified election result swing 15 points or more in a day",
"module": "pulse",
"kind": "metric",
"state": "NOT EVALUATED",
"confidence": "LOW",
"confidence_reason": "No data to judge.",
"why": "No readings yet.",
"weight": 1,
"evaluated_at": "2026-11-06T00:00:00.000Z",
"fetched_at": null,
"findings": [],
"inputs": []
},
{
"sign_id": "us_protest_over_baseline",
"scenario_id": "election-disruption",
"words": "GDELT US protest events over baseline",
"plain": "Far more protest news in the US than normal",
"module": "pulse",
"kind": "metric",
"state": "NOT EVALUATED",
"confidence": "LOW",
"confidence_reason": "No data to judge.",
"why": "Still learning what normal looks like.",
"weight": 1,
"evaluated_at": "2026-11-06T00:00:00.000Z",
"fetched_at": "2026-11-05T23:50:29.074Z",
"findings": [
{
"key": "country:US",
"label": "Protest news in the US",
"measure": "z",
"value": null,
"bar": null,
"lit": false,
"ts": null
}
],
"inputs": [
{
"type": "reading",
"db": "pulse",
"metric": "gdelt_country_protest",
"key": "country:US",
"ts": "2026-11-06T00:00:00.000Z",
"value": 9,
"z": null,
"baseline": null,
"source": "gdelt",
"source_url": "https://data.gdeltproject.org/gdeltv2/20261106000000.export.CSV.zip",
"fetched_at": "2026-11-05T23:50:29.074Z",
"raw_key": "raw/gdelt/2026/11/05/235029Z-4965bd64019c.zip"
}
]
},
{
"sign_id": "tfr_state_capital",
"scenario_id": "election-disruption",
"words": "TFR over a state capital",
"plain": "A new security flight restriction over a state capital",
"module": "sky",
"kind": "event",
"state": "LIT",
"confidence": "MODERATE",
"confidence_reason": "One source graded B2 or better.",
"why": "Seen once in the last 2 days.",
"weight": 1,
"evaluated_at": "2026-11-06T00:00:00.000Z",
"fetched_at": "2026-11-05T17:40:29.074Z",
"findings": [
{
"key": "01M6MG2P00X3QBYPVJAS9PHRV3",
"label": null,
"measure": "event",
"value": null,
"bar": null,
"lit": true,
"ts": "2026-11-05T00:00:00.000Z"
}
],
"inputs": [
{
"type": "event",
"id": "01M6MG2P00X3QBYPVJAS9PHRV3",
"source": "faa_tfr",
"ts": "2026-11-05T00:00:00.000Z",
"tags": [
"place:state_capital",
"tfr:security"
],
"url": "https://tfr.faa.gov/tfr3/?page=detail_6_5946",
"source_url": "https://tfr.faa.gov/tfrapi/exportTfrList",
"fetched_at": "2026-11-05T17:40:29.074Z",
"raw_key": "raw/faa_tfr/2026/11/05/174029Z-022295c19876.json"
}
]
}
],
"fetched_at": "2026-11-05T23:50:29.074Z",
"version": "3b1a3fe432503d54a232e13103417d21775036b9"
}