Scenario
CHECKEDGreat-power escalation
Signs that a crisis between nuclear powers is getting worse.
The count
NORMAL1 of 7 signs lit.
Not enough signs lit to change the status.
1 of 7 signs lit, from 1 module. 5 not evaluated.
- ELEVATED at
- 3 of 7 signs lit
- MAYDAY at
- 5 of 7 signs lit
- Not evaluated
- 5
- Modules lit
- Follow the Money
- Weighted
- 1.0 of 7.0
- Likelihood ratio
- 1.0
- Checked
Counts are for reading. The status line uses each sign's likelihood ratio: how much more often it lit before a real event than on a normal day. Every weight is 1.0 until the backtest learns them, so today the two agree. A scenario counts only with lit signs from two or more modules.
Signs
7 SIGNSLit means the sign's metric crossed its bar. Not lit means it did not. Not evaluated means we had no data to judge, which is not the same as not lit.
NOT EVALUATED Two credible outlets report nuclear bombers moved to other bases, or more submarines at sea
Needs an editor. No mark yet.
Confidence LOW: No data to judge.
WHY IT IS A SIGN, AND HOW IT CAN BE GAMED
Dispersal and a surge at sea protect forces from a first strike. Powers do it when they fear one.
HOW IT CAN BE GAMED A planted story, or one source repeated by many outlets, can look like two reports.
WHAT WE DO Two outlets with their own sourcing. An editor marks it with a reason.
Cost to game it: medium.
NOT EVALUATED An airborne command post flying at an unusual hour
Still learning what normal looks like.
Confidence LOW: No data to judge.
WHY IT IS A SIGN, AND HOW IT CAN BE GAMED
Airborne command posts go up when leaders fear an attack on command centers on the ground.
HOW IT CAN BE GAMED Military aircraft fly dark or with blocked positions, so a quiet map proves nothing. A community feed can also carry spoofed positions.
WHAT WE DO Only positive signals count, and absence is never a sign. The count is scored against its own baseline for that hour of the week.
Cost to game it: medium.
NOT LIT The State Department orders staff out of a country, or tells Americans not to travel to a G20 country
None in the last 3 days.
Confidence MODERATE: One source graded B2 or better.
WHY IT IS A SIGN, AND HOW IT CAN BE GAMED
An ordered departure, or Level 4 for a major power, means the government expects danger to Americans there.
HOW IT CAN BE GAMED Advisories follow embassy staffing and politics as well as danger.
WHAT WE DO Only an ordered departure, or a new Level 4 for a G20 country, counts.
Cost to game it: high.
NOT EVALUATED A warning to ships in a major strait
NGA navigational warning: the NGA navigational warnings feed has not run yet. UKMTO warning, marked by an editor: needs an editor. No mark yet.
Confidence LOW: No data to judge.
WHY IT IS A SIGN, AND HOW IT CAN BE GAMED
Warnings to shipping in Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb, Malacca, the Taiwan Strait or the Bosphorus come before and during naval action.
HOW IT CAN BE GAMED Routine warnings for cable work, exercises and drifting objects share the same feed.
WHAT WE DO Only warnings for a major strait count. UKMTO has no feed yet, so an editor marks its warnings.
Cost to game it: high.
NOT EVALUATED Marine insurers add a sea area to their war risk list
Needs an editor. No mark yet.
Confidence LOW: No data to judge.
WHY IT IS A SIGN, AND HOW IT CAN BE GAMED
Insurers price war risk with their own money. A new listed area means they expect attacks on ships there.
HOW IT CAN BE GAMED Listed areas change slowly and follow insurers' risk models, not only war.
WHAT WE DO An editor marks it from the Joint War Committee circular, with its date.
Cost to game it: high.
LIT Oil prices up 8% or more in a day
Oil: up 8.7% from the day before.
Confidence MODERATE: One source graded B2 or better.
WHY IT IS A SIGN, AND HOW IT CAN BE GAMED
Markets price a threat to supply before it happens. A one-day jump this size is rare.
HOW IT CAN BE GAMED Supply news, such as an OPEC decision or a refinery outage, moves oil with no war.
WHAT WE DO A one-day move of 8% or more only, read with the other signs.
Cost to game it: high.
NOT EVALUATED The UN Security Council holds an emergency session
Needs an editor. No mark yet.
Confidence LOW: No data to judge.
WHY IT IS A SIGN, AND HOW IT CAN BE GAMED
Emergency sessions are called when a crisis between members turns dangerous.
HOW IT CAN BE GAMED Sessions are called for many reasons, some of them routine.
WHAT WE DO Only an emergency session called on the crisis counts. An editor marks it from the UN notice.
Cost to game it: high.
What we cannot see
COLLECTION GAPS- Submarine positions.
- Nuclear alert levels.
- Diplomatic channels.
- UKMTO warnings, Joint War Committee lists and UN Security Council sessions until an editor marks them.
- Two credible outlets report nuclear bombers moved to other bases, or more submarines at sea: needs an editor. No mark yet.
- An airborne command post flying at an unusual hour: still learning what normal looks like.
- A warning to ships in a major strait: nGA navigational warning: the NGA navigational warnings feed has not run yet. UKMTO warning, marked by an editor: needs an editor. No mark yet.
- Marine insurers add a sea area to their war risk list: needs an editor. No mark yet.
- The UN Security Council holds an emergency session: needs an editor. No mark yet.
Key assumptions
- Reports of dispersal and of submarines at sea reflect real movements, not a planned signal.
- Command aircraft flying off-hours reflect alert posture, not training.
- Oil and shipping moves come from war risk, not from supply news.
Other explanations
WHAT WOULD CONFIRM EACHDeliberate signaling: a show of force meant to deter, with no plan to fight.
Would confirm it: Official statements announcing the deployment, and no change in alert posture.
A scheduled strategic exercise, such as a nuclear command exercise.
Would confirm it: A published exercise name and dates that match the activity.
A shipping or oil shock with a cause that is not military, such as an accident in a strait.
Would confirm it: An investigation or an official statement that names the cause.
Sources
ADMIRALTY GRADES- Mayday Desk editor: B2 (usually reliable, probably true)
- adsb.lol ADS-B: B2 (usually reliable, probably true)
- State Department travel advisories: A2 (completely reliable, probably true)
- NGA navigational warnings: A1 (completely reliable, confirmed by other sources)
- FRED: A2 (completely reliable, probably true)