Scenario
CHECKEDUS military strike abroad
Signs that the United States is about to strike, or has just struck, a target in another country.
The count
NORMAL0 of 7 signs lit.
Not enough signs lit to change the status.
0 of 7 signs lit. 6 not evaluated.
- ELEVATED at
- 4 of 7 signs lit
- MAYDAY at
- 6 of 7 signs lit
- Not evaluated
- 6
- Modules lit
- none
- Weighted
- 0.0 of 7.0
- Likelihood ratio
- 1.0
- Checked
Counts are for reading. The status line uses each sign's likelihood ratio: how much more often it lit before a real event than on a normal day. Every weight is 1.0 until the backtest learns them, so today the two agree. A scenario counts only with lit signs from two or more modules.
Signs
7 SIGNSLit means the sign's metric crossed its bar. Not lit means it did not. Not evaluated means we had no data to judge, which is not the same as not lit.
NOT EVALUATED Food places near the Pentagon are at MAYDAY
Not enough data in the last hour.
Confidence LOW: No data to judge.
WHY IT IS A SIGN, AND HOW IT CAN BE GAMED
Late-night food orders near the Pentagon can mean staff working through the night on an operation.
HOW IT CAN BE GAMED The theory is public, and the Pentagon has denied it: the building has its own late-night vendors, and nobody had published how often spikes come with nothing going on. One actor can flood crowd reports.
WHAT WE DO Low weight and never alone. We publish the base rate ourselves. Turnstile, one report per address per venue per day, the median and a three-venue minimum.
Cost to game it: low.
NOT EVALUATED Food places near the White House are at MAYDAY
Not enough data in the last hour.
Confidence LOW: No data to judge.
WHY IT IS A SIGN, AND HOW IT CAN BE GAMED
Late nights at the White House and the EEOB come with decisions on the use of force.
HOW IT CAN BE GAMED The theory is public and the base rate of spikes with nothing going on was never published. One actor can flood crowd reports.
WHAT WE DO Low weight and never alone. We publish the base rate ourselves. Turnstile, one report per address per venue per day, the median and a three-venue minimum.
Cost to game it: low.
NOT EVALUATED Far more tanker planes than normal over one region
Still learning what normal looks like.
Confidence LOW: No data to judge.
WHY IT IS A SIGN, AND HOW IT CAN BE GAMED
Strikes far from home need fuel in the air. A surge over the Atlantic or the Gulf is a classic sign before a strike.
HOW IT CAN BE GAMED Military aircraft fly dark or with blocked positions, so a quiet map proves nothing. A community feed can also carry spoofed positions.
WHAT WE DO Only positive signals count, and absence is never a sign. A count must be far over its own baseline twice in a row, or once by a wide margin.
Cost to game it: medium.
NOT EVALUATED An airborne command post flying at an unusual hour
Still learning what normal looks like.
Confidence LOW: No data to judge.
WHY IT IS A SIGN, AND HOW IT CAN BE GAMED
The E-4B and E-6B carry national command and control. Flying at an odd hour, or more of them than usual at once, means a change in posture.
HOW IT CAN BE GAMED Military aircraft fly dark or with blocked positions, so a quiet map proves nothing. A community feed can also carry spoofed positions.
WHAT WE DO Only positive signals count, and absence is never a sign. The count is scored against its own baseline for that hour of the week.
Cost to game it: medium.
NOT EVALUATED Betting odds on a US strike up 15 points or more in a day
No readings yet.
Confidence LOW: No data to judge.
WHY IT IS A SIGN, AND HOW IT CAN BE GAMED
People with money at stake move fast on news they can see. A fast jump on a strike question means they see something.
HOW IT CAN BE GAMED A Columbia study estimated about a quarter of Polymarket volume was wash trading, and a thin market moves on little money.
WHAT WE DO Price, never volume. A minimum open interest. Two markets must agree, and Kalshi, which is regulated, outranks Polymarket on the same question.
Cost to game it: medium.
NOT EVALUATED News about the target country turns far darker than normal
No readings yet.
Confidence LOW: No data to judge.
WHY IT IS A SIGN, AND HOW IT CAN BE GAMED
Coverage turns hostile before and during a strike. The target is a country a tracked strike market names.
HOW IT CAN BE GAMED State media can flood a country's event count, and machine coding misfires.
WHAT WE DO Tone and volume at country level only, never a single event. Checked against ACLED weekly.
Cost to game it: low.
NOT LIT A new security flight restriction over Washington, or executive jets flying far more than normal
Security flight restriction over Washington: none in the last 2 days. Executive jets: still learning what normal looks like.
Confidence LOW: Part of this sign has no data.
WHY IT IS A SIGN, AND HOW IT CAN BE GAMED
Airspace over the capital closes and leaders move when a decision is near.
HOW IT CAN BE GAMED Routine VIP and sports flight restrictions look like signals, and executive jets fly every day on routine trips.
WHAT WE DO Only security and national defense restrictions count. Executive jets count only when far over their own baseline.
Cost to game it: high.
What we cannot see
COLLECTION GAPS- Classified movements and orders.
- Aircraft that fly without ADS-B or with blocked positions.
- Encrypted communications.
- Anything that is not on a public feed.
- Food places near the Pentagon are at MAYDAY: not enough data in the last hour.
- Food places near the White House are at MAYDAY: not enough data in the last hour.
- Far more tanker planes than normal over one region: still learning what normal looks like.
- An airborne command post flying at an unusual hour: still learning what normal looks like.
- Betting odds on a US strike up 15 points or more in a day: no readings yet.
- News about the target country turns far darker than normal: no readings yet.
Key assumptions
- Late-night activity at command sites means planning, not a budget deadline or a drill.
- Tankers and command aircraft fly for an operation, not for a scheduled exercise.
- A jump in a strike market comes from new information, not from one large trader.
Other explanations
WHAT WOULD CONFIRM EACHA planned exercise or readiness drill.
Would confirm it: A published exercise notice, or the same pattern on the same dates last year.
A crisis that ends without a strike, such as an evacuation or a hostage recovery.
Would confirm it: An official statement about an evacuation or a recovery, or an ordered departure for the country.
A budget deadline or a domestic emergency keeps the command sites busy.
Would confirm it: A funding deadline or a named domestic emergency in the same window.
Sources
ADMIRALTY GRADES- Mayday Index: D4 (not usually reliable, doubtful)
- adsb.lol ADS-B: B2 (usually reliable, probably true)
- Kalshi: C3 (fairly reliable, possibly true)
- Polymarket: C3 (fairly reliable, possibly true)
- GDELT: C3 (fairly reliable, possibly true)
- FAA flight restrictions: A2 (completely reliable, probably true)