Scenario
CHECKEDWar-driven market shock
Signs that war risk is moving markets.
The count
NORMAL0 of 5 signs lit.
Not enough signs lit to change the status.
0 of 5 signs lit. 4 not evaluated.
- ELEVATED at
- 3 of 5 signs lit
- MAYDAY at
- 4 of 5 signs lit
- Not evaluated
- 4
- Modules lit
- none
- Weighted
- 0.0 of 5.0
- Likelihood ratio
- 1.0
- Checked
Counts are for reading. The status line uses each sign's likelihood ratio: how much more often it lit before a real event than on a normal day. Every weight is 1.0 until the backtest learns them, so today the two agree. A scenario counts only with lit signs from two or more modules.
Signs
5 SIGNSLit means the sign's metric crossed its bar. Not lit means it did not. Not evaluated means we had no data to judge, which is not the same as not lit.
NOT EVALUATED Defense or energy funds move far more than normal in a day
No readings yet.
Confidence LOW: No data to judge.
WHY IT IS A SIGN, AND HOW IT CAN BE GAMED
Defense and energy funds move first when war risk changes. XLE counts once data/tickers.json lists it.
HOW IT CAN BE GAMED Earnings, index changes or one big fund flow can move a fund in a day.
WHAT WE DO A move far outside the fund's own daily moves only. Moves the size of a split are dropped.
Cost to game it: high.
NOT LIT Three or more public filers report buying or selling the same watched stock in the same week
No alert in the last week.
Confidence MODERATE: One source graded B2 or better.
WHY IT IS A SIGN, AND HOW IT CAN BE GAMED
A cluster of filers in one defense or energy stock in the same week is a timing flag, read with the other signs.
HOW IT CAN BE GAMED Filings come late or amended, a filer can split trades, and unrelated filers buy and sell popular stocks in the same week.
WHAT WE DO Late filing is scored, amendments are shown, and a cluster needs three or more filers in one stock and week.
Cost to game it: medium.
NOT EVALUATED Stock market fear far above normal
Still learning what normal looks like.
Confidence LOW: No data to judge.
WHY IT IS A SIGN, AND HOW IT CAN BE GAMED
The market's fear gauge rises when traders price a shock.
HOW IT CAN BE GAMED The VIX rises on any market fear, not only war.
WHAT WE DO Read against its own baseline and with the other signs.
Cost to game it: high.
NOT EVALUATED Marine insurers add a sea area to their war risk list
Needs an editor. No mark yet.
Confidence LOW: No data to judge.
WHY IT IS A SIGN, AND HOW IT CAN BE GAMED
A new listed area raises the cost of shipping there at once.
HOW IT CAN BE GAMED Listed areas change slowly and follow insurers' risk models, not only war.
WHAT WE DO An editor marks it from the Joint War Committee circular, with its date.
Cost to game it: high.
NOT EVALUATED Far more sanctions added than normal
No readings yet.
Confidence LOW: No data to judge.
WHY IT IS A SIGN, AND HOW IT CAN BE GAMED
Waves of sanctions come with conflict and move the markets they hit.
HOW IT CAN BE GAMED Designations come in planned batches tied to policy dates.
WHAT WE DO Counts against their own baseline. Individuals are counted, never named.
Cost to game it: high.
What we cannot see
COLLECTION GAPS- Trades not filed yet: members of Congress report up to 45 days late.
- Private and off-exchange trading.
- Joint War Committee lists until an editor marks them.
- Defense or energy funds move far more than normal in a day: no readings yet.
- Stock market fear far above normal: still learning what normal looks like.
- Marine insurers add a sea area to their war risk list: needs an editor. No mark yet.
- Far more sanctions added than normal: no readings yet.
Key assumptions
- Moves in defense and energy prices come from war risk, not from earnings or interest rates.
- Sanctions and listed areas move with the same conflict.
Other explanations
WHAT WOULD CONFIRM EACHA shock to the whole economy, such as rates, inflation or a bank failure, that moves every sector.
Would confirm it: Moves of the same size across sectors, with no conflict in the news.
Company news: an earnings report or a big contract.
Would confirm it: An earnings release or a contract award on the same day.
Supply news with no conflict, such as an OPEC decision or a refinery outage.
Would confirm it: An OPEC statement or an outage report that explains the oil move.
Sources
ADMIRALTY GRADES- daily closing prices: B1 (usually reliable, confirmed by other sources)
- Follow the Money timing flag: A2 (completely reliable, probably true)
- House disclosure: A2 (completely reliable, probably true)
- SEC Form 4: A1 (completely reliable, confirmed by other sources)
- FRED: A2 (completely reliable, probably true)
- Mayday Desk editor: B2 (usually reliable, probably true)
- OFAC sanctions list: A1 (completely reliable, confirmed by other sources)