Track record

NOTHING IS DELETED

Every alert we ever fired, and whether something happened.

An editor marks each alert: did a public event match it within 48 hours? A match links to the event. A bad month stays on this page. We would rather miss a quiet event than cry wolf, so precision comes first.

By scenario

PRECISION AND RECALL
Precision from the editor's marks, recall from the backtest
SCENARIOALERTSPRECISIONRECALL
US military strike abroad0No alerts yet.Caught 0 of 2 events in the backtest. RECEIPT ▶ All of them could not have been caught: too few of its signs have free history.
Great-power escalation0No alerts yet.No backtest window
Major cyber event on US infrastructure0No alerts yet.Caught 0 of 1 event in the backtest. RECEIPT ▶ It could not have been caught: too few of its signs have free history.
Domestic instability0No alerts yet.No backtest window
Election disruption0No alerts yet.No backtest window
War-driven market shock0No alerts yet.No backtest window

Precision: of the alerts an editor marked, the share an event matched. It shows once a group has 5 marks. Recall cannot come from marks on alerts, since a missed event has no alert to mark, so it comes from the backtest below.

False alarms by Mayday site

GOAL: UNDER ONE PER SITE PER MONTH
Mayday Index alerts with no matching event
SITEALERTSFALSE ALARMS
The Pentagon0No alerts yet.
White House and EEOB0No alerts yet.
CIA Headquarters0No alerts yet.
Fort Meade (NSA, Cyber Command)0No alerts yet.
NORTHCOM, Peterson SFB0No alerts yet.
CENTCOM, MacDill AFB0No alerts yet.
NATO HQ0No alerts yet.
UK Ministry of Defence, Whitehall0No alerts yet.
The Kirya0No alerts yet.
Hexagone Balard0No alerts yet.
Ichigaya (Japan MoD)0No alerts yet.
Yongsan and Gyeryong (ROK MND)0No alerts yet.

Every alert

NEWEST FIRST

No alert has fired yet.

Times are in your local time, with your zone named. Receipts show UTC. An alert over a module's daily limit is logged here but not sent.

The backtest

ENGINE replay-1+692c1e40db38971c

We replayed four stretches of history through the same scenarios engine the site runs today, using only data that was public at each moment. Three are the hours before a real event. One is a quiet week, to show the site stays quiet. Each lists the signs that were lit, the ones that were not, and the ones we could not evaluate because that feed has no history. The thresholds did not move for it.

  • Of the 3 windows before a real event, 0 raised its scenario, 0 missed it and 3 could not have raised it with the history that is free to collect.
  • The quiet week stayed NORMAL, but most of its signs had no data.
  • Thresholds do not move on this backtest: it cannot tell a good threshold from a bad one while most signs read NOT EVALUATED.
HOW THE REPLAY WORKS
  • Only rows public at each evaluation time count: a row whose fetched_at is after it is left out.
  • Baselines are the ones the nightly run would have written: as of the latest 07:00 UTC at or before the evaluation time, from rows public by then, one point per half hour, with the live math and seriesConfig. GDELT series use UTC half-hour slots; KEV adds and the VIX use one baseline over all days.
  • A baseline under 40 points cannot score, as live: its sign reads NOT EVALUATED, and the note says how many points the history gave. The backtest keeps 8 weeks of GDELT history and 27 weeks of daily history, where the live site keeps 52 weeks.
  • The scenarios engine and the status line run unchanged, with the thresholds in data/scenarios.json. No editor marks, no status holds and no alert rows are replayed, so editor signs, alert signs and convergence read NOT EVALUATED or play no part.
  • A computed row (a scenario, a status line) has this file as its receipt: source_url data/backtest/results.json, raw_key results.json, and fetched_at the newest fetched_at among its inputs. Every input carries its own upstream receipt; these raws are not in R2, so raw_key is the upstream file name.
  • These raws are not in R2. Each row's raw_key is the name of the upstream file the value came from, and data/backtest/README.md says where each file came from.
  • With the history that is free to collect, no scenario can reach ELEVATED in any window: too few of each scenario's signs have any history. Each window's gaps say how many signs its scenario of interest has. The backtest shows what the signs with history did. It cannot show the status line rising.
  • Only rows public at an evaluation time count: GDELT an export 15 minutes after its time, Polymarket a price at its own time, FRED and CISA KEV a day's value at the next midnight in New York, IODA an alert an hour after it.
  • FRED posts WTI oil about a week late: the file collected on November 3, 2026 ended on October 27. The backtest counts a FRED value known the next midnight in New York, which for oil can be days earlier than the live site would have it.
  • CISA KEV adds are counted from the catalog of November 3, 2026, so a flaw CISA has since taken off the list is not counted on its day.
  • No Kalshi history was collected. The strike market sign reads Polymarket markets only, and two of them must agree.
  • Polymarket price history has no order-book depth, so the live $10,000 liquidity floor cannot be checked. Every hourly price counts.
  • The editor signs read NOT EVALUATED in every window. A backtest never invents an editor mark.
INPUT FILES AND THEIR SHA-256
  • data/scenarios.json: a26603fa8bc9f801d85857e579c5ac543dd262499010e97f09fed078ce67ecf7
  • data/backtest/windows.json: 8b74e21fc43bd4fec0c64216e6fe84f7240113b155b3d779138fe514d07afb15
  • data/backtest/inputs/gdelt-w1.json: f50e5827ac19751aba36a2223affbb71a65a72dfbcf82cc97d99dc54fe33ddf3
  • data/backtest/inputs/gdelt-w2.json: f1b15d39570e33df4f29ae27e69531df85adb18fd25cda0b11b07f99643374be
  • data/backtest/inputs/gdelt-w3.json: 2e6d9e235f7d16802f94c966e9f07d4beac7799361d7331bcb3ecbcb9f8579b7
  • data/backtest/inputs/gdelt-q.json: 2c686c74ce1a291fbf6798640e7bf069b200ed3ed64c9c90de6baea43f95b5e5
  • data/backtest/inputs/polymarket.json: a4195d187addbd26a8a38ed498323e9d45224c00db05bcad9622809e16029d3d
  • data/backtest/inputs/fred.json: 09f278b92f232333ed31c61549999a79382d58d5ad52dc1e78e73e3e42a964e2
  • data/backtest/inputs/cisa_kev.json: 2c8734b714f27583f96994abfc30a46ff1008997ccdff7d3edc14dd00568211c
  • data/backtest/inputs/ioda.json: f72564821aaf1f26d3b618d70fa8bd214cad601c50fe89a9d3da8cbc5c2ca736

W1: Midnight Hammer

BEFORE AN EVENT

US strikes on Iran (Operation Midnight Hammer), announced about 8 pm Eastern on June 21, 2025. The window is three hours before.

Evaluated at
Scenario of interest
US military strike abroad
Strike target
Iran
Result
US military strike abroad stayed NORMAL. The backtest could not have raised it: too few of its signs have free history. RECEIPT ▶

WHAT THE REPLAY SAYS

  • Midnight Hammer: the status line read NORMAL at June 21, 2025, 5 pm Eastern.
  • US military strike abroad reached NORMAL, with at most 0 of its 7 signs lit. 1 of them had data. ELEVATED takes 4 lit, from two modules.
  • The backtest could not have raised it: too few of its signs have free history.
  • Lit: a large internet outage in a US state.

HONEST GAPS

  • GDELT published no files from the afternoon of June 14 to July 2, 2025, an outage on GDELT's side. Every GDELT sign is NOT EVALUATED in this window.
  • Only 1 of the 7 signs of US military strike abroad can be evaluated in this window: the strike market jump. It takes 4 lit to reach ELEVATED, so this window cannot show ELEVATED, whatever the data say.
· STATUS NORMAL

No scenario has enough signs lit.

US military strike abroad: 0 of 7 signs lit, 6 not evaluated · NORMAL RECEIPT ▶

0 of 7 signs lit. 6 not evaluated.

□ NOT LIT (1)

– NOT EVALUATED (6)

  • Food places near the Pentagon are at MAYDAY. Not enough data in the last hour. The Mayday Index has no history before launch.

  • Food places near the White House are at MAYDAY. Not enough data in the last hour. The Mayday Index has no history before launch.

  • Far more tanker planes than normal over one region. No readings yet. ADS-B archives run to gigabytes a day, so no flight history was collected.

  • An airborne command post flying at an unusual hour. No readings yet. ADS-B archives run to gigabytes a day, so no flight history was collected.

  • News about the target country turns far darker than normal. No readings yet. GDELT published no files from the afternoon of June 14 to July 2, 2025, an outage on GDELT's side. Every GDELT sign is NOT EVALUATED in this window.

  • A new security flight restriction over Washington, or executive jets flying far more than normal. Security flight restriction over Washington: the FAA flight restrictions feed has not run yet. Executive jets: no readings yet. No FAA flight restriction archive and no flight history were collected.

Great-power escalation: 0 of 7 signs lit, 6 not evaluated · NORMAL RECEIPT ▶

0 of 7 signs lit. 6 not evaluated.

□ NOT LIT (1)

  • Oil prices up 8% or more in a day. No move of 8% or more from the day before.

– NOT EVALUATED (6)

  • Two credible outlets report nuclear bombers moved to other bases, or more submarines at sea. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.

  • An airborne command post flying at an unusual hour. No readings yet. ADS-B archives run to gigabytes a day, so no flight history was collected.

  • The State Department orders staff out of a country, or tells Americans not to travel to a G20 country. The State Department travel advisories feed has not run yet. No history of State Department travel advisories was collected.

  • A warning to ships in a major strait. NGA navigational warning: the NGA navigational warnings feed has not run yet. UKMTO warning, marked by an editor: needs an editor. No mark yet. No history of NGA warnings to ships was collected, and the editor part needs an editor mark.

  • Marine insurers add a sea area to their war risk list. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign, and no Joint War Committee lists were collected.

  • The UN Security Council holds an emergency session. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.

Major cyber event on US infrastructure: 1 of 6 signs lit, 4 not evaluated · NORMAL RECEIPT ▶

1 of 6 signs lit, from 1 module. 4 not evaluated.

■ LIT (1)

□ NOT LIT (1)

  • Far more actively exploited flaws than normal added to CISA's list. Within the normal range for this time of week.

– NOT EVALUATED (4)

  • CISA gives federal agencies an emergency order about a threat. The CISA advisories feed has not run yet. No history of CISA advisories was collected.

  • Far more US ransomware victims posted than normal. No readings yet. ransomware.live history now needs a paid key.

  • Cloudflare reports an outage or an attack spike in a US region. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.

  • Food places near Fort Meade are at MAYDAY. Not enough data in the last hour. The Mayday Index has no history before launch.

Domestic instability: 0 of 6 signs lit, 6 not evaluated · NORMAL RECEIPT ▶

0 of 6 signs lit. 6 not evaluated.

– NOT EVALUATED (6)

  • More threats or attacks on officials and judges than normal. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign, and no ACLED history was collected.

  • More armed demonstrations than normal. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign, and no ACLED history was collected.

  • A state or an official refuses to certify a result or obey a court order. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.

  • A governor, a general or a top police leader breaks with the federal government in public. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.

  • The National Guard deploys in a state over its governor's objection. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.

  • A new security flight restriction over a state capital. The FAA flight restrictions feed has not run yet. No FAA flight restriction archive was collected.

Election disruption: 0 of 5 signs lit, 5 not evaluated · NORMAL RECEIPT ▶

0 of 5 signs lit. 5 not evaluated.

– NOT EVALUATED (5)

  • CISA or the FBI warns the public about a threat to an election. CISA election advisory: the CISA advisories feed has not run yet. FBI warning, marked by an editor: needs an editor. No mark yet. No history of CISA advisories was collected, and the editor part needs an editor mark.

  • Election offices in 3 or more states post warnings. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign, and no election-office advisories were collected.

  • Betting odds on a certified election result swing 15 points or more in a day. No readings yet. No market on a certified election result was collected for any window, and no Kalshi history.

  • Far more protest news in the US than normal. No readings yet. GDELT published no files from the afternoon of June 14 to July 2, 2025, an outage on GDELT's side. Every GDELT sign is NOT EVALUATED in this window.

  • A new security flight restriction over a state capital. The FAA flight restrictions feed has not run yet. No FAA flight restriction archive was collected.

War-driven market shock: 0 of 5 signs lit, 4 not evaluated · NORMAL RECEIPT ▶

0 of 5 signs lit. 4 not evaluated.

□ NOT LIT (1)

  • Stock market fear far above normal. Within the normal range for this time of week.

– NOT EVALUATED (4)

  • Defense or energy funds move far more than normal in a day. No readings yet. Fund prices need the owner's price key. Running prepare again with it can fill this sign.

  • Three or more public filers report buying or selling the same watched stock in the same week. The House disclosure feed or the SEC Form 4 feed has not run yet. Follow the Money timing flags are not replayed in the backtest.

  • Marine insurers add a sea area to their war risk list. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign, and no Joint War Committee lists were collected.

  • Far more sanctions added than normal. No readings yet. No history of the OFAC sanctions list was collected.

W2: Epic Fury

BEFORE AN EVENT

The US-Israeli strike campaign on Iran (Operation Epic Fury), launched at 1:15 am Eastern on February 28, 2026. The window is the evening before.

Evaluated at
Scenario of interest
US military strike abroad
Strike target
Iran
Result
US military strike abroad stayed NORMAL. The backtest could not have raised it: too few of its signs have free history. RECEIPT ▶

WHAT THE REPLAY SAYS

  • Epic Fury: the status line read NORMAL at February 27, 2026, 10 pm Eastern.
  • US military strike abroad reached NORMAL, with at most 1 of its 7 signs lit. 2 of them had data. ELEVATED takes 4 lit, from two modules.
  • The backtest could not have raised it: too few of its signs have free history.
  • Lit: betting odds on a US strike up 15 points or more in a day and a large internet outage in a US state.

HONEST GAPS

  • Only 2 of the 7 signs of US military strike abroad can be evaluated in this window: the strike market jump and the tone of news about Iran. Both are World Pulse signs. It takes 4 lit, from two modules, to reach ELEVATED, so this window cannot show ELEVATED, whatever the data say.
· STATUS NORMAL

No scenario has enough signs lit.

US military strike abroad: 1 of 7 signs lit, 5 not evaluated · NORMAL RECEIPT ▶

1 of 7 signs lit, from 1 module. 5 not evaluated.

■ LIT (1)

□ NOT LIT (1)

  • News about the target country turns far darker than normal. Within the normal range for this time of week.

– NOT EVALUATED (5)

  • Food places near the Pentagon are at MAYDAY. Not enough data in the last hour. The Mayday Index has no history before launch.

  • Food places near the White House are at MAYDAY. Not enough data in the last hour. The Mayday Index has no history before launch.

  • Far more tanker planes than normal over one region. No readings yet. ADS-B archives run to gigabytes a day, so no flight history was collected.

  • An airborne command post flying at an unusual hour. No readings yet. ADS-B archives run to gigabytes a day, so no flight history was collected.

  • A new security flight restriction over Washington, or executive jets flying far more than normal. Security flight restriction over Washington: the FAA flight restrictions feed has not run yet. Executive jets: no readings yet. No FAA flight restriction archive and no flight history were collected.

Great-power escalation: 0 of 7 signs lit, 6 not evaluated · NORMAL RECEIPT ▶

0 of 7 signs lit. 6 not evaluated.

□ NOT LIT (1)

  • Oil prices up 8% or more in a day. No move of 8% or more from the day before.

– NOT EVALUATED (6)

  • Two credible outlets report nuclear bombers moved to other bases, or more submarines at sea. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.

  • An airborne command post flying at an unusual hour. No readings yet. ADS-B archives run to gigabytes a day, so no flight history was collected.

  • The State Department orders staff out of a country, or tells Americans not to travel to a G20 country. The State Department travel advisories feed has not run yet. No history of State Department travel advisories was collected.

  • A warning to ships in a major strait. NGA navigational warning: the NGA navigational warnings feed has not run yet. UKMTO warning, marked by an editor: needs an editor. No mark yet. No history of NGA warnings to ships was collected, and the editor part needs an editor mark.

  • Marine insurers add a sea area to their war risk list. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign, and no Joint War Committee lists were collected.

  • The UN Security Council holds an emergency session. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.

Major cyber event on US infrastructure: 1 of 6 signs lit, 4 not evaluated · NORMAL RECEIPT ▶

1 of 6 signs lit, from 1 module. 4 not evaluated.

■ LIT (1)

□ NOT LIT (1)

  • Far more actively exploited flaws than normal added to CISA's list. Within the normal range for this time of week.

– NOT EVALUATED (4)

  • CISA gives federal agencies an emergency order about a threat. The CISA advisories feed has not run yet. No history of CISA advisories was collected.

  • Far more US ransomware victims posted than normal. No readings yet. ransomware.live history now needs a paid key.

  • Cloudflare reports an outage or an attack spike in a US region. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.

  • Food places near Fort Meade are at MAYDAY. Not enough data in the last hour. The Mayday Index has no history before launch.

Domestic instability: 0 of 6 signs lit, 6 not evaluated · NORMAL RECEIPT ▶

0 of 6 signs lit. 6 not evaluated.

– NOT EVALUATED (6)

  • More threats or attacks on officials and judges than normal. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign, and no ACLED history was collected.

  • More armed demonstrations than normal. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign, and no ACLED history was collected.

  • A state or an official refuses to certify a result or obey a court order. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.

  • A governor, a general or a top police leader breaks with the federal government in public. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.

  • The National Guard deploys in a state over its governor's objection. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.

  • A new security flight restriction over a state capital. The FAA flight restrictions feed has not run yet. No FAA flight restriction archive was collected.

Election disruption: 0 of 5 signs lit, 4 not evaluated · NORMAL RECEIPT ▶

0 of 5 signs lit. 4 not evaluated.

□ NOT LIT (1)

  • Far more protest news in the US than normal. Within the normal range for this time of week.

– NOT EVALUATED (4)

  • CISA or the FBI warns the public about a threat to an election. CISA election advisory: the CISA advisories feed has not run yet. FBI warning, marked by an editor: needs an editor. No mark yet. No history of CISA advisories was collected, and the editor part needs an editor mark.

  • Election offices in 3 or more states post warnings. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign, and no election-office advisories were collected.

  • Betting odds on a certified election result swing 15 points or more in a day. No readings yet. No market on a certified election result was collected for any window, and no Kalshi history.

  • A new security flight restriction over a state capital. The FAA flight restrictions feed has not run yet. No FAA flight restriction archive was collected.

War-driven market shock: 0 of 5 signs lit, 4 not evaluated · NORMAL RECEIPT ▶

0 of 5 signs lit. 4 not evaluated.

□ NOT LIT (1)

  • Stock market fear far above normal. Within the normal range for this time of week.

– NOT EVALUATED (4)

  • Defense or energy funds move far more than normal in a day. No readings yet. Fund prices need the owner's price key. Running prepare again with it can fill this sign.

  • Three or more public filers report buying or selling the same watched stock in the same week. The House disclosure feed or the SEC Form 4 feed has not run yet. Follow the Money timing flags are not replayed in the backtest.

  • Marine insurers add a sea area to their war risk list. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign, and no Joint War Committee lists were collected.

  • Far more sanctions added than normal. No readings yet. No history of the OFAC sanctions list was collected.

W3: Minnesota water systems

BEFORE AN EVENT

Cyberattacks on more than 30 community water systems in Minnesota, reported July 24 to 27, 2026. The window is that weekend, from Friday evening.

Evaluated at
Scenario of interest
Major cyber event on US infrastructure
Result
Major cyber event on US infrastructure stayed NORMAL. The backtest could not have raised it: too few of its signs have free history. RECEIPT ▶

WHAT THE REPLAY SAYS

  • Minnesota water systems: the status line read NORMAL at all 3 times checked.
  • Major cyber event on US infrastructure reached NORMAL, with at most 1 of its 6 signs lit. 2 of them had data. ELEVATED takes 3 lit, from two modules.
  • The backtest could not have raised it: too few of its signs have free history.
  • Lit: a large internet outage in a US state (July 24, 2026, 6 pm Central) and far more protest news in the US than normal (July 24, 2026, 6 pm Central and July 25, 2026, noon Central).

HONEST GAPS

  • Only 2 of the 6 signs of a major cyber event on US infrastructure can be evaluated: flaws added to CISA's list and IODA outages in US states. It takes 3 lit to reach ELEVATED, so this window cannot show ELEVATED, whatever the data say.
  • No strike market was found that traded that weekend, so the strike market sign has no series and no country is a strike target for the tone sign. Both are NOT EVALUATED.
· STATUS NORMAL

No scenario has enough signs lit.

US military strike abroad: 0 of 7 signs lit, 7 not evaluated · NORMAL RECEIPT ▶

0 of 7 signs lit. 7 not evaluated.

– NOT EVALUATED (7)

  • Food places near the Pentagon are at MAYDAY. Not enough data in the last hour. The Mayday Index has no history before launch.

  • Food places near the White House are at MAYDAY. Not enough data in the last hour. The Mayday Index has no history before launch.

  • Far more tanker planes than normal over one region. No readings yet. ADS-B archives run to gigabytes a day, so no flight history was collected.

  • An airborne command post flying at an unusual hour. No readings yet. ADS-B archives run to gigabytes a day, so no flight history was collected.

  • Betting odds on a US strike up 15 points or more in a day. No readings yet. No strike market was found that traded that weekend, so the strike market sign has no series and no country is a strike target for the tone sign. Both are NOT EVALUATED.

  • News about the target country turns far darker than normal. No readings yet. No strike market was found that traded that weekend, so the strike market sign has no series and no country is a strike target for the tone sign. Both are NOT EVALUATED.

  • A new security flight restriction over Washington, or executive jets flying far more than normal. Security flight restriction over Washington: the FAA flight restrictions feed has not run yet. Executive jets: no readings yet. No FAA flight restriction archive and no flight history were collected.

Great-power escalation: 0 of 7 signs lit, 6 not evaluated · NORMAL RECEIPT ▶

0 of 7 signs lit. 6 not evaluated.

□ NOT LIT (1)

  • Oil prices up 8% or more in a day. No move of 8% or more from the day before.

– NOT EVALUATED (6)

  • Two credible outlets report nuclear bombers moved to other bases, or more submarines at sea. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.

  • An airborne command post flying at an unusual hour. No readings yet. ADS-B archives run to gigabytes a day, so no flight history was collected.

  • The State Department orders staff out of a country, or tells Americans not to travel to a G20 country. The State Department travel advisories feed has not run yet. No history of State Department travel advisories was collected.

  • A warning to ships in a major strait. NGA navigational warning: the NGA navigational warnings feed has not run yet. UKMTO warning, marked by an editor: needs an editor. No mark yet. No history of NGA warnings to ships was collected, and the editor part needs an editor mark.

  • Marine insurers add a sea area to their war risk list. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign, and no Joint War Committee lists were collected.

  • The UN Security Council holds an emergency session. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.

Major cyber event on US infrastructure: 1 of 6 signs lit, 4 not evaluated · NORMAL RECEIPT ▶

1 of 6 signs lit, from 1 module. 4 not evaluated.

■ LIT (1)

□ NOT LIT (1)

  • Far more actively exploited flaws than normal added to CISA's list. Within the normal range for this time of week.

– NOT EVALUATED (4)

  • CISA gives federal agencies an emergency order about a threat. The CISA advisories feed has not run yet. No history of CISA advisories was collected.

  • Far more US ransomware victims posted than normal. No readings yet. ransomware.live history now needs a paid key.

  • Cloudflare reports an outage or an attack spike in a US region. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.

  • Food places near Fort Meade are at MAYDAY. Not enough data in the last hour. The Mayday Index has no history before launch.

Domestic instability: 0 of 6 signs lit, 6 not evaluated · NORMAL RECEIPT ▶

0 of 6 signs lit. 6 not evaluated.

– NOT EVALUATED (6)

  • More threats or attacks on officials and judges than normal. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign, and no ACLED history was collected.

  • More armed demonstrations than normal. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign, and no ACLED history was collected.

  • A state or an official refuses to certify a result or obey a court order. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.

  • A governor, a general or a top police leader breaks with the federal government in public. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.

  • The National Guard deploys in a state over its governor's objection. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.

  • A new security flight restriction over a state capital. The FAA flight restrictions feed has not run yet. No FAA flight restriction archive was collected.

Election disruption: 1 of 5 signs lit, 4 not evaluated · NORMAL RECEIPT ▶

1 of 5 signs lit, from 1 module. 4 not evaluated.

■ LIT (1)

  • Far more protest news in the US than normal. Protest news in the US: far above normal, in the last 24 hours.

– NOT EVALUATED (4)

  • CISA or the FBI warns the public about a threat to an election. CISA election advisory: the CISA advisories feed has not run yet. FBI warning, marked by an editor: needs an editor. No mark yet. No history of CISA advisories was collected, and the editor part needs an editor mark.

  • Election offices in 3 or more states post warnings. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign, and no election-office advisories were collected.

  • Betting odds on a certified election result swing 15 points or more in a day. No readings yet. No market on a certified election result was collected for any window, and no Kalshi history.

  • A new security flight restriction over a state capital. The FAA flight restrictions feed has not run yet. No FAA flight restriction archive was collected.

War-driven market shock: 0 of 5 signs lit, 4 not evaluated · NORMAL RECEIPT ▶

0 of 5 signs lit. 4 not evaluated.

□ NOT LIT (1)

  • Stock market fear far above normal. Within the normal range for this time of week.

– NOT EVALUATED (4)

  • Defense or energy funds move far more than normal in a day. No readings yet. Fund prices need the owner's price key. Running prepare again with it can fill this sign.

  • Three or more public filers report buying or selling the same watched stock in the same week. The House disclosure feed or the SEC Form 4 feed has not run yet. Follow the Money timing flags are not replayed in the backtest.

  • Marine insurers add a sea area to their war risk list. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign, and no Joint War Committee lists were collected.

  • Far more sanctions added than normal. No readings yet. No history of the OFAC sanctions list was collected.

· STATUS NORMAL

No scenario has enough signs lit.

US military strike abroad: 0 of 7 signs lit, 7 not evaluated · NORMAL RECEIPT ▶

0 of 7 signs lit. 7 not evaluated.

– NOT EVALUATED (7)

  • Food places near the Pentagon are at MAYDAY. Not enough data in the last hour. The Mayday Index has no history before launch.

  • Food places near the White House are at MAYDAY. Not enough data in the last hour. The Mayday Index has no history before launch.

  • Far more tanker planes than normal over one region. No readings yet. ADS-B archives run to gigabytes a day, so no flight history was collected.

  • An airborne command post flying at an unusual hour. No readings yet. ADS-B archives run to gigabytes a day, so no flight history was collected.

  • Betting odds on a US strike up 15 points or more in a day. No readings yet. No strike market was found that traded that weekend, so the strike market sign has no series and no country is a strike target for the tone sign. Both are NOT EVALUATED.

  • News about the target country turns far darker than normal. No readings yet. No strike market was found that traded that weekend, so the strike market sign has no series and no country is a strike target for the tone sign. Both are NOT EVALUATED.

  • A new security flight restriction over Washington, or executive jets flying far more than normal. Security flight restriction over Washington: the FAA flight restrictions feed has not run yet. Executive jets: no readings yet. No FAA flight restriction archive and no flight history were collected.

Great-power escalation: 0 of 7 signs lit, 6 not evaluated · NORMAL RECEIPT ▶

0 of 7 signs lit. 6 not evaluated.

□ NOT LIT (1)

  • Oil prices up 8% or more in a day. No move of 8% or more from the day before.

– NOT EVALUATED (6)

  • Two credible outlets report nuclear bombers moved to other bases, or more submarines at sea. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.

  • An airborne command post flying at an unusual hour. No readings yet. ADS-B archives run to gigabytes a day, so no flight history was collected.

  • The State Department orders staff out of a country, or tells Americans not to travel to a G20 country. The State Department travel advisories feed has not run yet. No history of State Department travel advisories was collected.

  • A warning to ships in a major strait. NGA navigational warning: the NGA navigational warnings feed has not run yet. UKMTO warning, marked by an editor: needs an editor. No mark yet. No history of NGA warnings to ships was collected, and the editor part needs an editor mark.

  • Marine insurers add a sea area to their war risk list. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign, and no Joint War Committee lists were collected.

  • The UN Security Council holds an emergency session. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.

Major cyber event on US infrastructure: 0 of 6 signs lit, 4 not evaluated · NORMAL RECEIPT ▶

0 of 6 signs lit. 4 not evaluated.

□ NOT LIT (2)

  • Far more actively exploited flaws than normal added to CISA's list. Within the normal range for this time of week.

  • A large internet outage in a US state. None in the last 24 hours.

– NOT EVALUATED (4)

  • CISA gives federal agencies an emergency order about a threat. The CISA advisories feed has not run yet. No history of CISA advisories was collected.

  • Far more US ransomware victims posted than normal. No readings yet. ransomware.live history now needs a paid key.

  • Cloudflare reports an outage or an attack spike in a US region. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.

  • Food places near Fort Meade are at MAYDAY. Not enough data in the last hour. The Mayday Index has no history before launch.

Domestic instability: 0 of 6 signs lit, 6 not evaluated · NORMAL RECEIPT ▶

0 of 6 signs lit. 6 not evaluated.

– NOT EVALUATED (6)

  • More threats or attacks on officials and judges than normal. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign, and no ACLED history was collected.

  • More armed demonstrations than normal. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign, and no ACLED history was collected.

  • A state or an official refuses to certify a result or obey a court order. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.

  • A governor, a general or a top police leader breaks with the federal government in public. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.

  • The National Guard deploys in a state over its governor's objection. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.

  • A new security flight restriction over a state capital. The FAA flight restrictions feed has not run yet. No FAA flight restriction archive was collected.

Election disruption: 1 of 5 signs lit, 4 not evaluated · NORMAL RECEIPT ▶

1 of 5 signs lit, from 1 module. 4 not evaluated.

■ LIT (1)

– NOT EVALUATED (4)

  • CISA or the FBI warns the public about a threat to an election. CISA election advisory: the CISA advisories feed has not run yet. FBI warning, marked by an editor: needs an editor. No mark yet. No history of CISA advisories was collected, and the editor part needs an editor mark.

  • Election offices in 3 or more states post warnings. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign, and no election-office advisories were collected.

  • Betting odds on a certified election result swing 15 points or more in a day. No readings yet. No market on a certified election result was collected for any window, and no Kalshi history.

  • A new security flight restriction over a state capital. The FAA flight restrictions feed has not run yet. No FAA flight restriction archive was collected.

War-driven market shock: 0 of 5 signs lit, 4 not evaluated · NORMAL RECEIPT ▶

0 of 5 signs lit. 4 not evaluated.

□ NOT LIT (1)

  • Stock market fear far above normal. Within the normal range for this time of week.

– NOT EVALUATED (4)

  • Defense or energy funds move far more than normal in a day. No readings yet. Fund prices need the owner's price key. Running prepare again with it can fill this sign.

  • Three or more public filers report buying or selling the same watched stock in the same week. The House disclosure feed or the SEC Form 4 feed has not run yet. Follow the Money timing flags are not replayed in the backtest.

  • Marine insurers add a sea area to their war risk list. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign, and no Joint War Committee lists were collected.

  • Far more sanctions added than normal. No readings yet. No history of the OFAC sanctions list was collected.

· STATUS NORMAL

No scenario has enough signs lit.

US military strike abroad: 0 of 7 signs lit, 7 not evaluated · NORMAL RECEIPT ▶

0 of 7 signs lit. 7 not evaluated.

– NOT EVALUATED (7)

  • Food places near the Pentagon are at MAYDAY. Not enough data in the last hour. The Mayday Index has no history before launch.

  • Food places near the White House are at MAYDAY. Not enough data in the last hour. The Mayday Index has no history before launch.

  • Far more tanker planes than normal over one region. No readings yet. ADS-B archives run to gigabytes a day, so no flight history was collected.

  • An airborne command post flying at an unusual hour. No readings yet. ADS-B archives run to gigabytes a day, so no flight history was collected.

  • Betting odds on a US strike up 15 points or more in a day. No readings yet. No strike market was found that traded that weekend, so the strike market sign has no series and no country is a strike target for the tone sign. Both are NOT EVALUATED.

  • News about the target country turns far darker than normal. No readings yet. No strike market was found that traded that weekend, so the strike market sign has no series and no country is a strike target for the tone sign. Both are NOT EVALUATED.

  • A new security flight restriction over Washington, or executive jets flying far more than normal. Security flight restriction over Washington: the FAA flight restrictions feed has not run yet. Executive jets: no readings yet. No FAA flight restriction archive and no flight history were collected.

Great-power escalation: 0 of 7 signs lit, 6 not evaluated · NORMAL RECEIPT ▶

0 of 7 signs lit. 6 not evaluated.

□ NOT LIT (1)

  • Oil prices up 8% or more in a day. No move of 8% or more from the day before.

– NOT EVALUATED (6)

  • Two credible outlets report nuclear bombers moved to other bases, or more submarines at sea. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.

  • An airborne command post flying at an unusual hour. No readings yet. ADS-B archives run to gigabytes a day, so no flight history was collected.

  • The State Department orders staff out of a country, or tells Americans not to travel to a G20 country. The State Department travel advisories feed has not run yet. No history of State Department travel advisories was collected.

  • A warning to ships in a major strait. NGA navigational warning: the NGA navigational warnings feed has not run yet. UKMTO warning, marked by an editor: needs an editor. No mark yet. No history of NGA warnings to ships was collected, and the editor part needs an editor mark.

  • Marine insurers add a sea area to their war risk list. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign, and no Joint War Committee lists were collected.

  • The UN Security Council holds an emergency session. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.

Major cyber event on US infrastructure: 0 of 6 signs lit, 4 not evaluated · NORMAL RECEIPT ▶

0 of 6 signs lit. 4 not evaluated.

□ NOT LIT (2)

  • Far more actively exploited flaws than normal added to CISA's list. Within the normal range for this time of week.

  • A large internet outage in a US state. None in the last 24 hours.

– NOT EVALUATED (4)

  • CISA gives federal agencies an emergency order about a threat. The CISA advisories feed has not run yet. No history of CISA advisories was collected.

  • Far more US ransomware victims posted than normal. No readings yet. ransomware.live history now needs a paid key.

  • Cloudflare reports an outage or an attack spike in a US region. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.

  • Food places near Fort Meade are at MAYDAY. Not enough data in the last hour. The Mayday Index has no history before launch.

Domestic instability: 0 of 6 signs lit, 6 not evaluated · NORMAL RECEIPT ▶

0 of 6 signs lit. 6 not evaluated.

– NOT EVALUATED (6)

  • More threats or attacks on officials and judges than normal. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign, and no ACLED history was collected.

  • More armed demonstrations than normal. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign, and no ACLED history was collected.

  • A state or an official refuses to certify a result or obey a court order. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.

  • A governor, a general or a top police leader breaks with the federal government in public. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.

  • The National Guard deploys in a state over its governor's objection. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.

  • A new security flight restriction over a state capital. The FAA flight restrictions feed has not run yet. No FAA flight restriction archive was collected.

Election disruption: 0 of 5 signs lit, 4 not evaluated · NORMAL RECEIPT ▶

0 of 5 signs lit. 4 not evaluated.

□ NOT LIT (1)

  • Far more protest news in the US than normal. Within the normal range for this time of week.

– NOT EVALUATED (4)

  • CISA or the FBI warns the public about a threat to an election. CISA election advisory: the CISA advisories feed has not run yet. FBI warning, marked by an editor: needs an editor. No mark yet. No history of CISA advisories was collected, and the editor part needs an editor mark.

  • Election offices in 3 or more states post warnings. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign, and no election-office advisories were collected.

  • Betting odds on a certified election result swing 15 points or more in a day. No readings yet. No market on a certified election result was collected for any window, and no Kalshi history.

  • A new security flight restriction over a state capital. The FAA flight restrictions feed has not run yet. No FAA flight restriction archive was collected.

War-driven market shock: 0 of 5 signs lit, 4 not evaluated · NORMAL RECEIPT ▶

0 of 5 signs lit. 4 not evaluated.

□ NOT LIT (1)

  • Stock market fear far above normal. Within the normal range for this time of week.

– NOT EVALUATED (4)

  • Defense or energy funds move far more than normal in a day. No readings yet. Fund prices need the owner's price key. Running prepare again with it can fill this sign.

  • Three or more public filers report buying or selling the same watched stock in the same week. The House disclosure feed or the SEC Form 4 feed has not run yet. Follow the Money timing flags are not replayed in the backtest.

  • Marine insurers add a sea area to their war risk list. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign, and no Joint War Committee lists were collected.

  • Far more sanctions added than normal. No readings yet. No history of the OFAC sanctions list was collected.

Q: Quiet week

PROVISIONAL, CHOSEN BY THE EDITOR

A week with no major event, to show the site stays quiet. 2026 had an ongoing US-Iran war with pauses, so no 2026 week is quiet, and the editor chose this one from November 2025. The owner confirms it or swaps it.

This window is provisional, chosen by the editor. The owner has not confirmed it yet, and may swap it.

Evaluated at
Result
Every scenario and the status line stayed NORMAL at every evaluation. RECEIPT ▶

WHAT THE REPLAY SAYS

  • Quiet week: the status line read NORMAL at all 7 times checked.
  • Every scenario stayed NORMAL. 5 of the 33 signs had data.
  • Lit: a large internet outage in a US state (November 17, 2025, noon Eastern, November 18, 2025, noon Eastern, November 19, 2025, noon Eastern, November 20, 2025, noon Eastern, November 21, 2025, noon Eastern and November 22, 2025, noon Eastern), far more protest news in the US than normal (November 17, 2025, noon Eastern, November 19, 2025, noon Eastern, November 20, 2025, noon Eastern and November 21, 2025, noon Eastern) and stock market fear far above normal (November 19, 2025, noon Eastern, November 20, 2025, noon Eastern, November 21, 2025, noon Eastern, November 22, 2025, noon Eastern and November 23, 2025, noon Eastern).

HONEST GAPS

  • No strike market was found that traded that week, so the strike market sign has no series and no country is a strike target for the tone sign. Both are NOT EVALUATED.
  • Staying quiet is easy when most signs cannot be evaluated: this week shows that the signs with history stay unlit, not that the whole site would.
· STATUS NORMAL

No scenario has enough signs lit.

US military strike abroad: 0 of 7 signs lit, 7 not evaluated · NORMAL RECEIPT ▶

0 of 7 signs lit. 7 not evaluated.

– NOT EVALUATED (7)

  • Food places near the Pentagon are at MAYDAY. Not enough data in the last hour. The Mayday Index has no history before launch.

  • Food places near the White House are at MAYDAY. Not enough data in the last hour. The Mayday Index has no history before launch.

  • Far more tanker planes than normal over one region. No readings yet. ADS-B archives run to gigabytes a day, so no flight history was collected.

  • An airborne command post flying at an unusual hour. No readings yet. ADS-B archives run to gigabytes a day, so no flight history was collected.

  • Betting odds on a US strike up 15 points or more in a day. No readings yet. No strike market was found that traded that week, so the strike market sign has no series and no country is a strike target for the tone sign. Both are NOT EVALUATED.

  • News about the target country turns far darker than normal. No readings yet. No strike market was found that traded that week, so the strike market sign has no series and no country is a strike target for the tone sign. Both are NOT EVALUATED.

  • A new security flight restriction over Washington, or executive jets flying far more than normal. Security flight restriction over Washington: the FAA flight restrictions feed has not run yet. Executive jets: no readings yet. No FAA flight restriction archive and no flight history were collected.

Great-power escalation: 0 of 7 signs lit, 6 not evaluated · NORMAL RECEIPT ▶

0 of 7 signs lit. 6 not evaluated.

□ NOT LIT (1)

  • Oil prices up 8% or more in a day. No move of 8% or more from the day before.

– NOT EVALUATED (6)

  • Two credible outlets report nuclear bombers moved to other bases, or more submarines at sea. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.

  • An airborne command post flying at an unusual hour. No readings yet. ADS-B archives run to gigabytes a day, so no flight history was collected.

  • The State Department orders staff out of a country, or tells Americans not to travel to a G20 country. The State Department travel advisories feed has not run yet. No history of State Department travel advisories was collected.

  • A warning to ships in a major strait. NGA navigational warning: the NGA navigational warnings feed has not run yet. UKMTO warning, marked by an editor: needs an editor. No mark yet. No history of NGA warnings to ships was collected, and the editor part needs an editor mark.

  • Marine insurers add a sea area to their war risk list. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign, and no Joint War Committee lists were collected.

  • The UN Security Council holds an emergency session. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.

Major cyber event on US infrastructure: 1 of 6 signs lit, 4 not evaluated · NORMAL RECEIPT ▶

1 of 6 signs lit, from 1 module. 4 not evaluated.

■ LIT (1)

□ NOT LIT (1)

  • Far more actively exploited flaws than normal added to CISA's list. Within the normal range for this time of week.

– NOT EVALUATED (4)

  • CISA gives federal agencies an emergency order about a threat. The CISA advisories feed has not run yet. No history of CISA advisories was collected.

  • Far more US ransomware victims posted than normal. No readings yet. ransomware.live history now needs a paid key.

  • Cloudflare reports an outage or an attack spike in a US region. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.

  • Food places near Fort Meade are at MAYDAY. Not enough data in the last hour. The Mayday Index has no history before launch.

Domestic instability: 0 of 6 signs lit, 6 not evaluated · NORMAL RECEIPT ▶

0 of 6 signs lit. 6 not evaluated.

– NOT EVALUATED (6)

  • More threats or attacks on officials and judges than normal. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign, and no ACLED history was collected.

  • More armed demonstrations than normal. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign, and no ACLED history was collected.

  • A state or an official refuses to certify a result or obey a court order. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.

  • A governor, a general or a top police leader breaks with the federal government in public. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.

  • The National Guard deploys in a state over its governor's objection. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.

  • A new security flight restriction over a state capital. The FAA flight restrictions feed has not run yet. No FAA flight restriction archive was collected.

Election disruption: 1 of 5 signs lit, 4 not evaluated · NORMAL RECEIPT ▶

1 of 5 signs lit, from 1 module. 4 not evaluated.

■ LIT (1)

  • Far more protest news in the US than normal. Protest news in the US: far above normal, in the last 24 hours.

– NOT EVALUATED (4)

  • CISA or the FBI warns the public about a threat to an election. CISA election advisory: the CISA advisories feed has not run yet. FBI warning, marked by an editor: needs an editor. No mark yet. No history of CISA advisories was collected, and the editor part needs an editor mark.

  • Election offices in 3 or more states post warnings. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign, and no election-office advisories were collected.

  • Betting odds on a certified election result swing 15 points or more in a day. No readings yet. No market on a certified election result was collected for any window, and no Kalshi history.

  • A new security flight restriction over a state capital. The FAA flight restrictions feed has not run yet. No FAA flight restriction archive was collected.

War-driven market shock: 0 of 5 signs lit, 4 not evaluated · NORMAL RECEIPT ▶

0 of 5 signs lit. 4 not evaluated.

□ NOT LIT (1)

  • Stock market fear far above normal. Within the normal range for this time of week.

– NOT EVALUATED (4)

  • Defense or energy funds move far more than normal in a day. No readings yet. Fund prices need the owner's price key. Running prepare again with it can fill this sign.

  • Three or more public filers report buying or selling the same watched stock in the same week. The House disclosure feed or the SEC Form 4 feed has not run yet. Follow the Money timing flags are not replayed in the backtest.

  • Marine insurers add a sea area to their war risk list. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign, and no Joint War Committee lists were collected.

  • Far more sanctions added than normal. No readings yet. No history of the OFAC sanctions list was collected.

· STATUS NORMAL

No scenario has enough signs lit.

US military strike abroad: 0 of 7 signs lit, 7 not evaluated · NORMAL RECEIPT ▶

0 of 7 signs lit. 7 not evaluated.

– NOT EVALUATED (7)

  • Food places near the Pentagon are at MAYDAY. Not enough data in the last hour. The Mayday Index has no history before launch.

  • Food places near the White House are at MAYDAY. Not enough data in the last hour. The Mayday Index has no history before launch.

  • Far more tanker planes than normal over one region. No readings yet. ADS-B archives run to gigabytes a day, so no flight history was collected.

  • An airborne command post flying at an unusual hour. No readings yet. ADS-B archives run to gigabytes a day, so no flight history was collected.

  • Betting odds on a US strike up 15 points or more in a day. No readings yet. No strike market was found that traded that week, so the strike market sign has no series and no country is a strike target for the tone sign. Both are NOT EVALUATED.

  • News about the target country turns far darker than normal. No readings yet. No strike market was found that traded that week, so the strike market sign has no series and no country is a strike target for the tone sign. Both are NOT EVALUATED.

  • A new security flight restriction over Washington, or executive jets flying far more than normal. Security flight restriction over Washington: the FAA flight restrictions feed has not run yet. Executive jets: no readings yet. No FAA flight restriction archive and no flight history were collected.

Great-power escalation: 0 of 7 signs lit, 6 not evaluated · NORMAL RECEIPT ▶

0 of 7 signs lit. 6 not evaluated.

□ NOT LIT (1)

  • Oil prices up 8% or more in a day. No move of 8% or more from the day before.

– NOT EVALUATED (6)

  • Two credible outlets report nuclear bombers moved to other bases, or more submarines at sea. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.

  • An airborne command post flying at an unusual hour. No readings yet. ADS-B archives run to gigabytes a day, so no flight history was collected.

  • The State Department orders staff out of a country, or tells Americans not to travel to a G20 country. The State Department travel advisories feed has not run yet. No history of State Department travel advisories was collected.

  • A warning to ships in a major strait. NGA navigational warning: the NGA navigational warnings feed has not run yet. UKMTO warning, marked by an editor: needs an editor. No mark yet. No history of NGA warnings to ships was collected, and the editor part needs an editor mark.

  • Marine insurers add a sea area to their war risk list. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign, and no Joint War Committee lists were collected.

  • The UN Security Council holds an emergency session. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.

Major cyber event on US infrastructure: 1 of 6 signs lit, 4 not evaluated · NORMAL RECEIPT ▶

1 of 6 signs lit, from 1 module. 4 not evaluated.

■ LIT (1)

□ NOT LIT (1)

  • Far more actively exploited flaws than normal added to CISA's list. Within the normal range for this time of week.

– NOT EVALUATED (4)

  • CISA gives federal agencies an emergency order about a threat. The CISA advisories feed has not run yet. No history of CISA advisories was collected.

  • Far more US ransomware victims posted than normal. No readings yet. ransomware.live history now needs a paid key.

  • Cloudflare reports an outage or an attack spike in a US region. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.

  • Food places near Fort Meade are at MAYDAY. Not enough data in the last hour. The Mayday Index has no history before launch.

Domestic instability: 0 of 6 signs lit, 6 not evaluated · NORMAL RECEIPT ▶

0 of 6 signs lit. 6 not evaluated.

– NOT EVALUATED (6)

  • More threats or attacks on officials and judges than normal. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign, and no ACLED history was collected.

  • More armed demonstrations than normal. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign, and no ACLED history was collected.

  • A state or an official refuses to certify a result or obey a court order. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.

  • A governor, a general or a top police leader breaks with the federal government in public. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.

  • The National Guard deploys in a state over its governor's objection. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.

  • A new security flight restriction over a state capital. The FAA flight restrictions feed has not run yet. No FAA flight restriction archive was collected.

Election disruption: 0 of 5 signs lit, 4 not evaluated · NORMAL RECEIPT ▶

0 of 5 signs lit. 4 not evaluated.

□ NOT LIT (1)

  • Far more protest news in the US than normal. Within the normal range for this time of week.

– NOT EVALUATED (4)

  • CISA or the FBI warns the public about a threat to an election. CISA election advisory: the CISA advisories feed has not run yet. FBI warning, marked by an editor: needs an editor. No mark yet. No history of CISA advisories was collected, and the editor part needs an editor mark.

  • Election offices in 3 or more states post warnings. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign, and no election-office advisories were collected.

  • Betting odds on a certified election result swing 15 points or more in a day. No readings yet. No market on a certified election result was collected for any window, and no Kalshi history.

  • A new security flight restriction over a state capital. The FAA flight restrictions feed has not run yet. No FAA flight restriction archive was collected.

War-driven market shock: 0 of 5 signs lit, 4 not evaluated · NORMAL RECEIPT ▶

0 of 5 signs lit. 4 not evaluated.

□ NOT LIT (1)

  • Stock market fear far above normal. Within the normal range for this time of week.

– NOT EVALUATED (4)

  • Defense or energy funds move far more than normal in a day. No readings yet. Fund prices need the owner's price key. Running prepare again with it can fill this sign.

  • Three or more public filers report buying or selling the same watched stock in the same week. The House disclosure feed or the SEC Form 4 feed has not run yet. Follow the Money timing flags are not replayed in the backtest.

  • Marine insurers add a sea area to their war risk list. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign, and no Joint War Committee lists were collected.

  • Far more sanctions added than normal. No readings yet. No history of the OFAC sanctions list was collected.

· STATUS NORMAL

No scenario has enough signs lit.

US military strike abroad: 0 of 7 signs lit, 7 not evaluated · NORMAL RECEIPT ▶

0 of 7 signs lit. 7 not evaluated.

– NOT EVALUATED (7)

  • Food places near the Pentagon are at MAYDAY. Not enough data in the last hour. The Mayday Index has no history before launch.

  • Food places near the White House are at MAYDAY. Not enough data in the last hour. The Mayday Index has no history before launch.

  • Far more tanker planes than normal over one region. No readings yet. ADS-B archives run to gigabytes a day, so no flight history was collected.

  • An airborne command post flying at an unusual hour. No readings yet. ADS-B archives run to gigabytes a day, so no flight history was collected.

  • Betting odds on a US strike up 15 points or more in a day. No readings yet. No strike market was found that traded that week, so the strike market sign has no series and no country is a strike target for the tone sign. Both are NOT EVALUATED.

  • News about the target country turns far darker than normal. No readings yet. No strike market was found that traded that week, so the strike market sign has no series and no country is a strike target for the tone sign. Both are NOT EVALUATED.

  • A new security flight restriction over Washington, or executive jets flying far more than normal. Security flight restriction over Washington: the FAA flight restrictions feed has not run yet. Executive jets: no readings yet. No FAA flight restriction archive and no flight history were collected.

Great-power escalation: 0 of 7 signs lit, 6 not evaluated · NORMAL RECEIPT ▶

0 of 7 signs lit. 6 not evaluated.

□ NOT LIT (1)

  • Oil prices up 8% or more in a day. No move of 8% or more from the day before.

– NOT EVALUATED (6)

  • Two credible outlets report nuclear bombers moved to other bases, or more submarines at sea. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.

  • An airborne command post flying at an unusual hour. No readings yet. ADS-B archives run to gigabytes a day, so no flight history was collected.

  • The State Department orders staff out of a country, or tells Americans not to travel to a G20 country. The State Department travel advisories feed has not run yet. No history of State Department travel advisories was collected.

  • A warning to ships in a major strait. NGA navigational warning: the NGA navigational warnings feed has not run yet. UKMTO warning, marked by an editor: needs an editor. No mark yet. No history of NGA warnings to ships was collected, and the editor part needs an editor mark.

  • Marine insurers add a sea area to their war risk list. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign, and no Joint War Committee lists were collected.

  • The UN Security Council holds an emergency session. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.

Major cyber event on US infrastructure: 1 of 6 signs lit, 4 not evaluated · NORMAL RECEIPT ▶

1 of 6 signs lit, from 1 module. 4 not evaluated.

■ LIT (1)

□ NOT LIT (1)

  • Far more actively exploited flaws than normal added to CISA's list. Within the normal range for this time of week.

– NOT EVALUATED (4)

  • CISA gives federal agencies an emergency order about a threat. The CISA advisories feed has not run yet. No history of CISA advisories was collected.

  • Far more US ransomware victims posted than normal. No readings yet. ransomware.live history now needs a paid key.

  • Cloudflare reports an outage or an attack spike in a US region. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.

  • Food places near Fort Meade are at MAYDAY. Not enough data in the last hour. The Mayday Index has no history before launch.

Domestic instability: 0 of 6 signs lit, 6 not evaluated · NORMAL RECEIPT ▶

0 of 6 signs lit. 6 not evaluated.

– NOT EVALUATED (6)

  • More threats or attacks on officials and judges than normal. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign, and no ACLED history was collected.

  • More armed demonstrations than normal. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign, and no ACLED history was collected.

  • A state or an official refuses to certify a result or obey a court order. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.

  • A governor, a general or a top police leader breaks with the federal government in public. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.

  • The National Guard deploys in a state over its governor's objection. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.

  • A new security flight restriction over a state capital. The FAA flight restrictions feed has not run yet. No FAA flight restriction archive was collected.

Election disruption: 1 of 5 signs lit, 4 not evaluated · NORMAL RECEIPT ▶

1 of 5 signs lit, from 1 module. 4 not evaluated.

■ LIT (1)

  • Far more protest news in the US than normal. Protest news in the US: far above normal, in the last 24 hours.

– NOT EVALUATED (4)

  • CISA or the FBI warns the public about a threat to an election. CISA election advisory: the CISA advisories feed has not run yet. FBI warning, marked by an editor: needs an editor. No mark yet. No history of CISA advisories was collected, and the editor part needs an editor mark.

  • Election offices in 3 or more states post warnings. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign, and no election-office advisories were collected.

  • Betting odds on a certified election result swing 15 points or more in a day. No readings yet. No market on a certified election result was collected for any window, and no Kalshi history.

  • A new security flight restriction over a state capital. The FAA flight restrictions feed has not run yet. No FAA flight restriction archive was collected.

War-driven market shock: 1 of 5 signs lit, 4 not evaluated · NORMAL RECEIPT ▶

1 of 5 signs lit, from 1 module. 4 not evaluated.

■ LIT (1)

  • Stock market fear far above normal. Market fear (the VIX): far above normal, in the last 3 days.

– NOT EVALUATED (4)

  • Defense or energy funds move far more than normal in a day. No readings yet. Fund prices need the owner's price key. Running prepare again with it can fill this sign.

  • Three or more public filers report buying or selling the same watched stock in the same week. The House disclosure feed or the SEC Form 4 feed has not run yet. Follow the Money timing flags are not replayed in the backtest.

  • Marine insurers add a sea area to their war risk list. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign, and no Joint War Committee lists were collected.

  • Far more sanctions added than normal. No readings yet. No history of the OFAC sanctions list was collected.

· STATUS NORMAL

No scenario has enough signs lit.

US military strike abroad: 0 of 7 signs lit, 7 not evaluated · NORMAL RECEIPT ▶

0 of 7 signs lit. 7 not evaluated.

– NOT EVALUATED (7)

  • Food places near the Pentagon are at MAYDAY. Not enough data in the last hour. The Mayday Index has no history before launch.

  • Food places near the White House are at MAYDAY. Not enough data in the last hour. The Mayday Index has no history before launch.

  • Far more tanker planes than normal over one region. No readings yet. ADS-B archives run to gigabytes a day, so no flight history was collected.

  • An airborne command post flying at an unusual hour. No readings yet. ADS-B archives run to gigabytes a day, so no flight history was collected.

  • Betting odds on a US strike up 15 points or more in a day. No readings yet. No strike market was found that traded that week, so the strike market sign has no series and no country is a strike target for the tone sign. Both are NOT EVALUATED.

  • News about the target country turns far darker than normal. No readings yet. No strike market was found that traded that week, so the strike market sign has no series and no country is a strike target for the tone sign. Both are NOT EVALUATED.

  • A new security flight restriction over Washington, or executive jets flying far more than normal. Security flight restriction over Washington: the FAA flight restrictions feed has not run yet. Executive jets: no readings yet. No FAA flight restriction archive and no flight history were collected.

Great-power escalation: 0 of 7 signs lit, 6 not evaluated · NORMAL RECEIPT ▶

0 of 7 signs lit. 6 not evaluated.

□ NOT LIT (1)

  • Oil prices up 8% or more in a day. No move of 8% or more from the day before.

– NOT EVALUATED (6)

  • Two credible outlets report nuclear bombers moved to other bases, or more submarines at sea. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.

  • An airborne command post flying at an unusual hour. No readings yet. ADS-B archives run to gigabytes a day, so no flight history was collected.

  • The State Department orders staff out of a country, or tells Americans not to travel to a G20 country. The State Department travel advisories feed has not run yet. No history of State Department travel advisories was collected.

  • A warning to ships in a major strait. NGA navigational warning: the NGA navigational warnings feed has not run yet. UKMTO warning, marked by an editor: needs an editor. No mark yet. No history of NGA warnings to ships was collected, and the editor part needs an editor mark.

  • Marine insurers add a sea area to their war risk list. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign, and no Joint War Committee lists were collected.

  • The UN Security Council holds an emergency session. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.

Major cyber event on US infrastructure: 1 of 6 signs lit, 4 not evaluated · NORMAL RECEIPT ▶

1 of 6 signs lit, from 1 module. 4 not evaluated.

■ LIT (1)

□ NOT LIT (1)

  • Far more actively exploited flaws than normal added to CISA's list. Within the normal range for this time of week.

– NOT EVALUATED (4)

  • CISA gives federal agencies an emergency order about a threat. The CISA advisories feed has not run yet. No history of CISA advisories was collected.

  • Far more US ransomware victims posted than normal. No readings yet. ransomware.live history now needs a paid key.

  • Cloudflare reports an outage or an attack spike in a US region. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.

  • Food places near Fort Meade are at MAYDAY. Not enough data in the last hour. The Mayday Index has no history before launch.

Domestic instability: 0 of 6 signs lit, 6 not evaluated · NORMAL RECEIPT ▶

0 of 6 signs lit. 6 not evaluated.

– NOT EVALUATED (6)

  • More threats or attacks on officials and judges than normal. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign, and no ACLED history was collected.

  • More armed demonstrations than normal. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign, and no ACLED history was collected.

  • A state or an official refuses to certify a result or obey a court order. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.

  • A governor, a general or a top police leader breaks with the federal government in public. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.

  • The National Guard deploys in a state over its governor's objection. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.

  • A new security flight restriction over a state capital. The FAA flight restrictions feed has not run yet. No FAA flight restriction archive was collected.

Election disruption: 1 of 5 signs lit, 4 not evaluated · NORMAL RECEIPT ▶

1 of 5 signs lit, from 1 module. 4 not evaluated.

■ LIT (1)

  • Far more protest news in the US than normal. Protest news in the US: far above normal, in the last 24 hours.

– NOT EVALUATED (4)

  • CISA or the FBI warns the public about a threat to an election. CISA election advisory: the CISA advisories feed has not run yet. FBI warning, marked by an editor: needs an editor. No mark yet. No history of CISA advisories was collected, and the editor part needs an editor mark.

  • Election offices in 3 or more states post warnings. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign, and no election-office advisories were collected.

  • Betting odds on a certified election result swing 15 points or more in a day. No readings yet. No market on a certified election result was collected for any window, and no Kalshi history.

  • A new security flight restriction over a state capital. The FAA flight restrictions feed has not run yet. No FAA flight restriction archive was collected.

War-driven market shock: 1 of 5 signs lit, 4 not evaluated · NORMAL RECEIPT ▶

1 of 5 signs lit, from 1 module. 4 not evaluated.

■ LIT (1)

  • Stock market fear far above normal. Market fear (the VIX): far above normal twice in a row, in the last 3 days.

– NOT EVALUATED (4)

  • Defense or energy funds move far more than normal in a day. No readings yet. Fund prices need the owner's price key. Running prepare again with it can fill this sign.

  • Three or more public filers report buying or selling the same watched stock in the same week. The House disclosure feed or the SEC Form 4 feed has not run yet. Follow the Money timing flags are not replayed in the backtest.

  • Marine insurers add a sea area to their war risk list. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign, and no Joint War Committee lists were collected.

  • Far more sanctions added than normal. No readings yet. No history of the OFAC sanctions list was collected.

· STATUS NORMAL

No scenario has enough signs lit.

US military strike abroad: 0 of 7 signs lit, 7 not evaluated · NORMAL RECEIPT ▶

0 of 7 signs lit. 7 not evaluated.

– NOT EVALUATED (7)

  • Food places near the Pentagon are at MAYDAY. Not enough data in the last hour. The Mayday Index has no history before launch.

  • Food places near the White House are at MAYDAY. Not enough data in the last hour. The Mayday Index has no history before launch.

  • Far more tanker planes than normal over one region. No readings yet. ADS-B archives run to gigabytes a day, so no flight history was collected.

  • An airborne command post flying at an unusual hour. No readings yet. ADS-B archives run to gigabytes a day, so no flight history was collected.

  • Betting odds on a US strike up 15 points or more in a day. No readings yet. No strike market was found that traded that week, so the strike market sign has no series and no country is a strike target for the tone sign. Both are NOT EVALUATED.

  • News about the target country turns far darker than normal. No readings yet. No strike market was found that traded that week, so the strike market sign has no series and no country is a strike target for the tone sign. Both are NOT EVALUATED.

  • A new security flight restriction over Washington, or executive jets flying far more than normal. Security flight restriction over Washington: the FAA flight restrictions feed has not run yet. Executive jets: no readings yet. No FAA flight restriction archive and no flight history were collected.

Great-power escalation: 0 of 7 signs lit, 6 not evaluated · NORMAL RECEIPT ▶

0 of 7 signs lit. 6 not evaluated.

□ NOT LIT (1)

  • Oil prices up 8% or more in a day. No move of 8% or more from the day before.

– NOT EVALUATED (6)

  • Two credible outlets report nuclear bombers moved to other bases, or more submarines at sea. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.

  • An airborne command post flying at an unusual hour. No readings yet. ADS-B archives run to gigabytes a day, so no flight history was collected.

  • The State Department orders staff out of a country, or tells Americans not to travel to a G20 country. The State Department travel advisories feed has not run yet. No history of State Department travel advisories was collected.

  • A warning to ships in a major strait. NGA navigational warning: the NGA navigational warnings feed has not run yet. UKMTO warning, marked by an editor: needs an editor. No mark yet. No history of NGA warnings to ships was collected, and the editor part needs an editor mark.

  • Marine insurers add a sea area to their war risk list. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign, and no Joint War Committee lists were collected.

  • The UN Security Council holds an emergency session. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.

Major cyber event on US infrastructure: 1 of 6 signs lit, 4 not evaluated · NORMAL RECEIPT ▶

1 of 6 signs lit, from 1 module. 4 not evaluated.

■ LIT (1)

□ NOT LIT (1)

  • Far more actively exploited flaws than normal added to CISA's list. Within the normal range for this time of week.

– NOT EVALUATED (4)

  • CISA gives federal agencies an emergency order about a threat. The CISA advisories feed has not run yet. No history of CISA advisories was collected.

  • Far more US ransomware victims posted than normal. No readings yet. ransomware.live history now needs a paid key.

  • Cloudflare reports an outage or an attack spike in a US region. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.

  • Food places near Fort Meade are at MAYDAY. Not enough data in the last hour. The Mayday Index has no history before launch.

Domestic instability: 0 of 6 signs lit, 6 not evaluated · NORMAL RECEIPT ▶

0 of 6 signs lit. 6 not evaluated.

– NOT EVALUATED (6)

  • More threats or attacks on officials and judges than normal. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign, and no ACLED history was collected.

  • More armed demonstrations than normal. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign, and no ACLED history was collected.

  • A state or an official refuses to certify a result or obey a court order. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.

  • A governor, a general or a top police leader breaks with the federal government in public. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.

  • The National Guard deploys in a state over its governor's objection. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.

  • A new security flight restriction over a state capital. The FAA flight restrictions feed has not run yet. No FAA flight restriction archive was collected.

Election disruption: 1 of 5 signs lit, 4 not evaluated · NORMAL RECEIPT ▶

1 of 5 signs lit, from 1 module. 4 not evaluated.

■ LIT (1)

  • Far more protest news in the US than normal. Protest news in the US: far above normal, in the last 24 hours.

– NOT EVALUATED (4)

  • CISA or the FBI warns the public about a threat to an election. CISA election advisory: the CISA advisories feed has not run yet. FBI warning, marked by an editor: needs an editor. No mark yet. No history of CISA advisories was collected, and the editor part needs an editor mark.

  • Election offices in 3 or more states post warnings. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign, and no election-office advisories were collected.

  • Betting odds on a certified election result swing 15 points or more in a day. No readings yet. No market on a certified election result was collected for any window, and no Kalshi history.

  • A new security flight restriction over a state capital. The FAA flight restrictions feed has not run yet. No FAA flight restriction archive was collected.

War-driven market shock: 1 of 5 signs lit, 4 not evaluated · NORMAL RECEIPT ▶

1 of 5 signs lit, from 1 module. 4 not evaluated.

■ LIT (1)

  • Stock market fear far above normal. Market fear (the VIX): far above normal, in the last 3 days.

– NOT EVALUATED (4)

  • Defense or energy funds move far more than normal in a day. No readings yet. Fund prices need the owner's price key. Running prepare again with it can fill this sign.

  • Three or more public filers report buying or selling the same watched stock in the same week. The House disclosure feed or the SEC Form 4 feed has not run yet. Follow the Money timing flags are not replayed in the backtest.

  • Marine insurers add a sea area to their war risk list. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign, and no Joint War Committee lists were collected.

  • Far more sanctions added than normal. No readings yet. No history of the OFAC sanctions list was collected.

· STATUS NORMAL

No scenario has enough signs lit.

US military strike abroad: 0 of 7 signs lit, 7 not evaluated · NORMAL RECEIPT ▶

0 of 7 signs lit. 7 not evaluated.

– NOT EVALUATED (7)

  • Food places near the Pentagon are at MAYDAY. Not enough data in the last hour. The Mayday Index has no history before launch.

  • Food places near the White House are at MAYDAY. Not enough data in the last hour. The Mayday Index has no history before launch.

  • Far more tanker planes than normal over one region. No readings yet. ADS-B archives run to gigabytes a day, so no flight history was collected.

  • An airborne command post flying at an unusual hour. No readings yet. ADS-B archives run to gigabytes a day, so no flight history was collected.

  • Betting odds on a US strike up 15 points or more in a day. No readings yet. No strike market was found that traded that week, so the strike market sign has no series and no country is a strike target for the tone sign. Both are NOT EVALUATED.

  • News about the target country turns far darker than normal. No readings yet. No strike market was found that traded that week, so the strike market sign has no series and no country is a strike target for the tone sign. Both are NOT EVALUATED.

  • A new security flight restriction over Washington, or executive jets flying far more than normal. Security flight restriction over Washington: the FAA flight restrictions feed has not run yet. Executive jets: no readings yet. No FAA flight restriction archive and no flight history were collected.

Great-power escalation: 0 of 7 signs lit, 6 not evaluated · NORMAL RECEIPT ▶

0 of 7 signs lit. 6 not evaluated.

□ NOT LIT (1)

  • Oil prices up 8% or more in a day. No move of 8% or more from the day before.

– NOT EVALUATED (6)

  • Two credible outlets report nuclear bombers moved to other bases, or more submarines at sea. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.

  • An airborne command post flying at an unusual hour. No readings yet. ADS-B archives run to gigabytes a day, so no flight history was collected.

  • The State Department orders staff out of a country, or tells Americans not to travel to a G20 country. The State Department travel advisories feed has not run yet. No history of State Department travel advisories was collected.

  • A warning to ships in a major strait. NGA navigational warning: the NGA navigational warnings feed has not run yet. UKMTO warning, marked by an editor: needs an editor. No mark yet. No history of NGA warnings to ships was collected, and the editor part needs an editor mark.

  • Marine insurers add a sea area to their war risk list. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign, and no Joint War Committee lists were collected.

  • The UN Security Council holds an emergency session. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.

Major cyber event on US infrastructure: 1 of 6 signs lit, 4 not evaluated · NORMAL RECEIPT ▶

1 of 6 signs lit, from 1 module. 4 not evaluated.

■ LIT (1)

□ NOT LIT (1)

  • Far more actively exploited flaws than normal added to CISA's list. Within the normal range for this time of week.

– NOT EVALUATED (4)

  • CISA gives federal agencies an emergency order about a threat. The CISA advisories feed has not run yet. No history of CISA advisories was collected.

  • Far more US ransomware victims posted than normal. No readings yet. ransomware.live history now needs a paid key.

  • Cloudflare reports an outage or an attack spike in a US region. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.

  • Food places near Fort Meade are at MAYDAY. Not enough data in the last hour. The Mayday Index has no history before launch.

Domestic instability: 0 of 6 signs lit, 6 not evaluated · NORMAL RECEIPT ▶

0 of 6 signs lit. 6 not evaluated.

– NOT EVALUATED (6)

  • More threats or attacks on officials and judges than normal. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign, and no ACLED history was collected.

  • More armed demonstrations than normal. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign, and no ACLED history was collected.

  • A state or an official refuses to certify a result or obey a court order. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.

  • A governor, a general or a top police leader breaks with the federal government in public. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.

  • The National Guard deploys in a state over its governor's objection. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.

  • A new security flight restriction over a state capital. The FAA flight restrictions feed has not run yet. No FAA flight restriction archive was collected.

Election disruption: 0 of 5 signs lit, 4 not evaluated · NORMAL RECEIPT ▶

0 of 5 signs lit. 4 not evaluated.

□ NOT LIT (1)

  • Far more protest news in the US than normal. Within the normal range for this time of week.

– NOT EVALUATED (4)

  • CISA or the FBI warns the public about a threat to an election. CISA election advisory: the CISA advisories feed has not run yet. FBI warning, marked by an editor: needs an editor. No mark yet. No history of CISA advisories was collected, and the editor part needs an editor mark.

  • Election offices in 3 or more states post warnings. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign, and no election-office advisories were collected.

  • Betting odds on a certified election result swing 15 points or more in a day. No readings yet. No market on a certified election result was collected for any window, and no Kalshi history.

  • A new security flight restriction over a state capital. The FAA flight restrictions feed has not run yet. No FAA flight restriction archive was collected.

War-driven market shock: 1 of 5 signs lit, 4 not evaluated · NORMAL RECEIPT ▶

1 of 5 signs lit, from 1 module. 4 not evaluated.

■ LIT (1)

  • Stock market fear far above normal. Market fear (the VIX): far above normal twice in a row, in the last 3 days.

– NOT EVALUATED (4)

  • Defense or energy funds move far more than normal in a day. No readings yet. Fund prices need the owner's price key. Running prepare again with it can fill this sign.

  • Three or more public filers report buying or selling the same watched stock in the same week. The House disclosure feed or the SEC Form 4 feed has not run yet. Follow the Money timing flags are not replayed in the backtest.

  • Marine insurers add a sea area to their war risk list. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign, and no Joint War Committee lists were collected.

  • Far more sanctions added than normal. No readings yet. No history of the OFAC sanctions list was collected.

· STATUS NORMAL

No scenario has enough signs lit.

US military strike abroad: 0 of 7 signs lit, 7 not evaluated · NORMAL RECEIPT ▶

0 of 7 signs lit. 7 not evaluated.

– NOT EVALUATED (7)

  • Food places near the Pentagon are at MAYDAY. Not enough data in the last hour. The Mayday Index has no history before launch.

  • Food places near the White House are at MAYDAY. Not enough data in the last hour. The Mayday Index has no history before launch.

  • Far more tanker planes than normal over one region. No readings yet. ADS-B archives run to gigabytes a day, so no flight history was collected.

  • An airborne command post flying at an unusual hour. No readings yet. ADS-B archives run to gigabytes a day, so no flight history was collected.

  • Betting odds on a US strike up 15 points or more in a day. No readings yet. No strike market was found that traded that week, so the strike market sign has no series and no country is a strike target for the tone sign. Both are NOT EVALUATED.

  • News about the target country turns far darker than normal. No readings yet. No strike market was found that traded that week, so the strike market sign has no series and no country is a strike target for the tone sign. Both are NOT EVALUATED.

  • A new security flight restriction over Washington, or executive jets flying far more than normal. Security flight restriction over Washington: the FAA flight restrictions feed has not run yet. Executive jets: no readings yet. No FAA flight restriction archive and no flight history were collected.

Great-power escalation: 0 of 7 signs lit, 6 not evaluated · NORMAL RECEIPT ▶

0 of 7 signs lit. 6 not evaluated.

□ NOT LIT (1)

  • Oil prices up 8% or more in a day. No move of 8% or more from the day before.

– NOT EVALUATED (6)

  • Two credible outlets report nuclear bombers moved to other bases, or more submarines at sea. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.

  • An airborne command post flying at an unusual hour. No readings yet. ADS-B archives run to gigabytes a day, so no flight history was collected.

  • The State Department orders staff out of a country, or tells Americans not to travel to a G20 country. The State Department travel advisories feed has not run yet. No history of State Department travel advisories was collected.

  • A warning to ships in a major strait. NGA navigational warning: the NGA navigational warnings feed has not run yet. UKMTO warning, marked by an editor: needs an editor. No mark yet. No history of NGA warnings to ships was collected, and the editor part needs an editor mark.

  • Marine insurers add a sea area to their war risk list. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign, and no Joint War Committee lists were collected.

  • The UN Security Council holds an emergency session. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.

Major cyber event on US infrastructure: 0 of 6 signs lit, 4 not evaluated · NORMAL RECEIPT ▶

0 of 6 signs lit. 4 not evaluated.

□ NOT LIT (2)

  • Far more actively exploited flaws than normal added to CISA's list. Within the normal range for this time of week.

  • A large internet outage in a US state. None in the last 24 hours.

– NOT EVALUATED (4)

  • CISA gives federal agencies an emergency order about a threat. The CISA advisories feed has not run yet. No history of CISA advisories was collected.

  • Far more US ransomware victims posted than normal. No readings yet. ransomware.live history now needs a paid key.

  • Cloudflare reports an outage or an attack spike in a US region. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.

  • Food places near Fort Meade are at MAYDAY. Not enough data in the last hour. The Mayday Index has no history before launch.

Domestic instability: 0 of 6 signs lit, 6 not evaluated · NORMAL RECEIPT ▶

0 of 6 signs lit. 6 not evaluated.

– NOT EVALUATED (6)

  • More threats or attacks on officials and judges than normal. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign, and no ACLED history was collected.

  • More armed demonstrations than normal. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign, and no ACLED history was collected.

  • A state or an official refuses to certify a result or obey a court order. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.

  • A governor, a general or a top police leader breaks with the federal government in public. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.

  • The National Guard deploys in a state over its governor's objection. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark.

  • A new security flight restriction over a state capital. The FAA flight restrictions feed has not run yet. No FAA flight restriction archive was collected.

Election disruption: 0 of 5 signs lit, 4 not evaluated · NORMAL RECEIPT ▶

0 of 5 signs lit. 4 not evaluated.

□ NOT LIT (1)

  • Far more protest news in the US than normal. Within the normal range for this time of week.

– NOT EVALUATED (4)

  • CISA or the FBI warns the public about a threat to an election. CISA election advisory: the CISA advisories feed has not run yet. FBI warning, marked by an editor: needs an editor. No mark yet. No history of CISA advisories was collected, and the editor part needs an editor mark.

  • Election offices in 3 or more states post warnings. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign, and no election-office advisories were collected.

  • Betting odds on a certified election result swing 15 points or more in a day. No readings yet. No market on a certified election result was collected for any window, and no Kalshi history.

  • A new security flight restriction over a state capital. The FAA flight restrictions feed has not run yet. No FAA flight restriction archive was collected.

War-driven market shock: 1 of 5 signs lit, 4 not evaluated · NORMAL RECEIPT ▶

1 of 5 signs lit, from 1 module. 4 not evaluated.

■ LIT (1)

  • Stock market fear far above normal. Market fear (the VIX): far above normal twice in a row, in the last 3 days.

– NOT EVALUATED (4)

  • Defense or energy funds move far more than normal in a day. No readings yet. Fund prices need the owner's price key. Running prepare again with it can fill this sign.

  • Three or more public filers report buying or selling the same watched stock in the same week. The House disclosure feed or the SEC Form 4 feed has not run yet. Follow the Money timing flags are not replayed in the backtest.

  • Marine insurers add a sea area to their war risk list. Needs an editor. No mark yet. An editor sign, and no Joint War Committee lists were collected.

  • Far more sanctions added than normal. No readings yet. No history of the OFAC sanctions list was collected.

Signs no backtest can read

26 SIGNS

These signs read NOT EVALUATED in every window. That is not the same as not lit: we had no history to judge them.

  • Food places near the Pentagon are at MAYDAY. The Mayday Index has no history before launch. (Mayday Index)
  • Food places near the White House are at MAYDAY. The Mayday Index has no history before launch. (Mayday Index)
  • Food places near Fort Meade are at MAYDAY. The Mayday Index has no history before launch. (Mayday Index)
  • Far more tanker planes than normal over one region. ADS-B archives run to gigabytes a day, so no flight history was collected. (adsb.lol)
  • An airborne command post flying at an unusual hour. ADS-B archives run to gigabytes a day, so no flight history was collected. (adsb.lol)
  • A new security flight restriction over Washington, or executive jets flying far more than normal. No FAA flight restriction archive and no flight history were collected. (FAA flight restrictions, adsb.lol)
  • A new security flight restriction over a state capital. No FAA flight restriction archive was collected. (FAA flight restrictions)
  • The State Department orders staff out of a country, or tells Americans not to travel to a G20 country. No history of State Department travel advisories was collected. (State Department travel advisories)
  • A warning to ships in a major strait. No history of NGA warnings to ships was collected, and the editor part needs an editor mark. (NGA navigational warnings, editor)
  • CISA gives federal agencies an emergency order about a threat. No history of CISA advisories was collected. (CISA advisories)
  • CISA or the FBI warns the public about a threat to an election. No history of CISA advisories was collected, and the editor part needs an editor mark. (CISA advisories, editor)
  • Far more US ransomware victims posted than normal. ransomware.live history now needs a paid key. (ransomware.live)
  • Betting odds on a certified election result swing 15 points or more in a day. No market on a certified election result was collected for any window, and no Kalshi history. (Kalshi, Polymarket)
  • Defense or energy funds move far more than normal in a day. Fund prices need the owner's price key. Running prepare again with it can fill this sign. (Tiingo / Alpha Vantage)
  • Three or more public filers report buying or selling the same watched stock in the same week. Follow the Money timing flags are not replayed in the backtest. (Mayday Pizza trade score, Clerk of the House, SEC EDGAR)
  • Far more sanctions added than normal. No history of the OFAC sanctions list was collected. (OFAC sanctions list)
  • Two credible outlets report nuclear bombers moved to other bases, or more submarines at sea. An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark. (editor)
  • Marine insurers add a sea area to their war risk list. An editor sign, and no Joint War Committee lists were collected. (editor)
  • The UN Security Council holds an emergency session. An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark. (editor)
  • Cloudflare reports an outage or an attack spike in a US region. An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark. (editor)
  • More threats or attacks on officials and judges than normal. An editor sign, and no ACLED history was collected. (editor)
  • More armed demonstrations than normal. An editor sign, and no ACLED history was collected. (editor)
  • A state or an official refuses to certify a result or obey a court order. An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark. (editor)
  • A governor, a general or a top police leader breaks with the federal government in public. An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark. (editor)
  • The National Guard deploys in a state over its governor's objection. An editor sign. A backtest never invents an editor mark. (editor)
  • Election offices in 3 or more states post warnings. An editor sign, and no election-office advisories were collected. (editor)

Owner's notes

DATED, NEVER DELETED

No notes yet.